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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 70707 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #125 on: October 31, 2019, 10:19:25 am »

A reminder that Survation were the most accurate pollster in 2017 (that is not including YouGov's constituency based modelling that is separate from their normal polling) Would have been in 2015 as well, if they hadn't got cold feet.

Talking of YouGov, I see their latest manages to have Labour down 2 whilst the Tories and LibDems are unchanged. Hmmm.

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afleitch
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« Reply #126 on: October 31, 2019, 10:39:32 am »

On the other hand Survation were the least accurate pollster in the European Elections with Ipsos-MORI and YouGov the most accurate.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #127 on: October 31, 2019, 11:15:34 am »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?


I know but Jermey Corbyn cannot be PM under any circumstances.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #128 on: October 31, 2019, 11:23:11 am »
« Edited: October 31, 2019, 11:28:32 am by CumbrianLeftie »

On the other hand Survation were the least accurate pollster in the European Elections with Ipsos-MORI and YouGov the most accurate.

Well I suppose that "wrong for meaningless elections, accurate for the ones that matter" isn't such a bad claim Tongue

Hopefully one thing this coming election will do is dump all the extravagant claims made on the back of that joke exercise into the dustbin. Forever.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #129 on: October 31, 2019, 01:01:36 pm »

What seats do you guys reckon Labour are likeliest to pick up even on a bad night? Putney? Hastings? Southampton Itchen?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #130 on: October 31, 2019, 01:04:32 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?


I know but Jermey Corbyn cannot be PM under any circumstances.

jErEmY cOrByN cAnNoT bE pM uNdEr AnY cIrCuMsTaNcEs
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Antonio V
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« Reply #131 on: October 31, 2019, 01:07:02 pm »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Note that the only significant difference between these two polls are the Labour and Green scores - which, in both, add up to exactly 27%. So if that pattern holds, it looks like it's a matter of how many votes the Greens will spoil for Labour.

(Of course, a lot more than that could change in a month and a half.)
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Pericles
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« Reply #132 on: October 31, 2019, 01:14:04 pm »

It's pretty much inevitable that FPP will produce many horrific distortions of the popular will in this election.

For example, if the Tory + Brexit vote is say 45%, but that vote is less split than the Remain vote then the Tories probably get a majority and the idiotic media will proclaim it as a mandate for a hard Brexit.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #133 on: October 31, 2019, 01:33:46 pm »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?
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jaichind
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« Reply #134 on: October 31, 2019, 01:43:11 pm »

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-boris-johnson-corbyn-would-take-uk-to-bad-places-2019-10

"Trump backs 'fantastic' Boris Johnson and says Jeremy Corbyn would take UK to 'bad places'"

Trump says this to Nigel Farage and encouraged that Nigel Farage's BXP and Johnson's CON should join forces.
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cp
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« Reply #135 on: October 31, 2019, 02:00:43 pm »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Because the Green Party is newer, less well established, and highly responsive to the media environment of the moment (i.e. if there are climate change issues in the news on any given week), their numbers tend to fluctuate. A similar phenomenon occurs in Canada: the Greens will poll at nearly double the rate they end up getting on election day, except for periods when non-environmentalist issues dominate the news.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #136 on: October 31, 2019, 02:01:35 pm »

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?
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cp
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« Reply #137 on: October 31, 2019, 02:03:04 pm »

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #138 on: October 31, 2019, 02:10:30 pm »

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #139 on: October 31, 2019, 02:24:22 pm »

Also if the Conservatives get a substantial majority (350-370) do you think they'll be able to hang on until 2023 or will UK have snap elections again?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #140 on: October 31, 2019, 02:47:20 pm »

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-boris-johnson-corbyn-would-take-uk-to-bad-places-2019-10

"Trump backs 'fantastic' Boris Johnson and says Jeremy Corbyn would take UK to 'bad places'"

Trump says this to Nigel Farage and encouraged that Nigel Farage's BXP and Johnson's CON should join forces.

Corbyn should just surreptitiously bait Trump every day for the next seven weeks to comment on British elections. Labour will have 400 seats at this rate.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #141 on: October 31, 2019, 04:16:11 pm »

Also if the Conservatives get a substantial majority (350-370) do you think they'll be able to hang on until 2023 or will UK have snap elections again?

2024 would be the date you’re thinking of (Canada and US do 4 years, UK does 5)

If they get a substantial majority and Labour is way behind in the polls then the Conservatives will likely take advantage of that around 2022, but no sooner then that.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #142 on: October 31, 2019, 04:34:55 pm »

If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #143 on: October 31, 2019, 04:46:48 pm »
« Edited: October 31, 2019, 05:03:34 pm by Oryxslayer »

If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

Frankly, I think any govt should ammend the act when it comes back up for renewal. The last few months have shown that any govt that has sigifcantly lost it's majority and expired it's term has to be given the rights of burial and can't just be allowed to sit there and do nothing. The opposition shouldn't be able to Ted Cruz the whole thing if polling isn't great for them at that moment. Hell, I can imagine the situation could easily be reversed, where the govt controls more than enough to avoid the 2/3s rule, not every opposition wants to go to an election preventing a straight VONC, the govt doesn't want to go to the polls do to bad numbers, but said govt can't get enough votes to do anything in the commons.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #144 on: October 31, 2019, 04:54:02 pm »

If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

As explained before, they can repeal it but will have to replace it with something. Even if that is just a bill saying power to call an election should be solely the preserve of the sitting PM again.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #145 on: October 31, 2019, 05:22:44 pm »

FTPA manages to be the worst of both worlds (there is a case for actual fixed terms and there is a case for the traditional Westminster approach, but this halfway house is appalling) and should certainly be replaced.
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DaWN
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« Reply #146 on: October 31, 2019, 05:36:21 pm »

Apparently Antoinette Sandbach (Ind, former Con; Eddisbury) has defected to the Lib Dems and will stand for re-election under that label. I'll be charitable and say she has 'no chance' rather than 'pffffttttt not a f!cking chance in hell'
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Cassius
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« Reply #147 on: October 31, 2019, 05:57:12 pm »

Apparently Antoinette Sandbach (Ind, former Con; Eddisbury) has defected to the Lib Dems and will stand for re-election under that label. I'll be charitable and say she has 'no chance' rather than 'pffffttttt not a f!cking chance in hell'

Whilst it probably wasn’t an option for her given the timing of her defection, I’ll give props to her for re-contesting Eddisbury, as opposed to joining the other defecting poultry in the chicken run to London.
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #148 on: October 31, 2019, 10:22:09 pm »

If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?


I know but Jermey Corbyn cannot be PM under any circumstances.

I know that Boris Johnson returning to No. 10 may very well lead to the dissolution of the United Kingdom so I would argue that Johnson should not remain as PM under any circumstances.

I am no fan of Jeremy Corbyn and I despise the SNP, but if I were a British voter, the integrity of the union should be the first priority. A hard Brexit (something that the public certainly did not vote for) would threaten the very existence of the United Kingdom—if we have to stomach Corbyn in No. 10 with the support of the SNP to remain or get a soft Brexit, then so be it. The union would then be (somewhat) safe. It's deliciously ironic that the SNP joining the government or giving confidence to a Labour-led government may very well end up preserving the union that they so foolishly hate.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #149 on: October 31, 2019, 10:36:49 pm »

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.
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