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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 75807 times)
Tintrlvr
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« Reply #175 on: November 01, 2019, 04:02:44 pm »

Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

Dunno about Farron either - he has been working his constituency *hard* since the 2017 scare.

The LDs also gained seats in the local council in 2019 and really have  stranglehold on local politics. I know that's not definitive, but South Lakeland is an odd one where the local council strength is strongly tied to Farron personally.
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afleitch
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« Reply #176 on: November 01, 2019, 04:42:27 pm »

FWIW, I expect Scottish Labour to hold onto a few seats even if they tank. The local by election in Thorniewood makes me think they will hold onto Coatbridge. Same with Midlothian and East Lothian. I think the Tories will also hold fairly firm in 6 or 7 seats. Stirling and Angus and Ochil are likely SNP pickups but the Grampian Tory gains in 2017 will either all fall fast or hold.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #177 on: November 01, 2019, 04:45:38 pm »

Yes the importance of Scottish leave voters has been ignored; I’m sure I’m as guilty as most but there’s a trend to treat Scotland as one universal set of seats rather than the 4-5 different clusters you have
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« Reply #178 on: November 01, 2019, 05:01:32 pm »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



The tweet's gone. What did it say?

    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019
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jaichind
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« Reply #179 on: November 01, 2019, 06:15:08 pm »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #180 on: November 01, 2019, 06:23:52 pm »

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

This is a very exciting one since his Labour opponent will become an instant national star (a real one, not just someone like Pidcock - who I like - who has a caché among Labour supporters but not a grand national profile) upon her victory.   
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #181 on: November 01, 2019, 06:31:21 pm »
« Edited: November 01, 2019, 06:55:00 pm by Oryxslayer »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

Not surprising. I ran a simple regional swing calculation yesterday, using some of the numbers from the Economst's poll tracker, which includes a tracker for geographic regions (actually somewhat accurate on account of volume). However, I applied weights for Brexit results. That entire part of the northwest was blue, except for the LD seat of course. And this is with a weighted swing calculation, something that is by nature, inaccurate. LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #182 on: November 01, 2019, 06:33:37 pm »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

I've had a look at the internals. Put bluntly, they don't pass the smell test. Even ignoring some of those issues (we shouldn't) the starting sample size was small and by the time they reached the effective sample size, tiny.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #183 on: November 01, 2019, 06:43:08 pm »

I note (wearily) that just as all those splendid recent constituency polls for the LibDems were commissioned by them, so this poll seems to have been to-order for an article in the Daily Mail. Survation's record as a nationwide pollster isn't bad, but they have had (and ever since they emerged) a bad habit of doing this sort of thing alongside...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #184 on: November 01, 2019, 06:47:44 pm »

LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.

No they won't. If they end up polling anything like where they currently are in the national polls, they will see their percentages soar in pretty much every constituency that they do not presently hold (and will do so in most of those as well).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #185 on: November 01, 2019, 06:58:59 pm »

LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.

No they won't. If they end up polling anything like where they currently are in the national polls, they will see their percentages soar in pretty much every constituency that they do not presently hold (and will do so in most of those as well).

I suspect their vote is going to correlate very well with their targets, as usual, but outside of that it's going to be mainly going up in remain and urban areas. Swinson is unambiguously campaigning as the remain candidate, everything else is a secondary clause you would use to withhold your vote from the LDs if you are a remainer - say tuition fees. So why would anyone who supports brexit cast a ballot for remain? Lets go back to the yougov polling posted on the last page - LD's are under 5% with leavers!
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #186 on: November 01, 2019, 07:05:26 pm »

You are trying to Yanksplain to us how elections work in this country. OK.......
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jaichind
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« Reply #187 on: November 01, 2019, 07:07:32 pm »
« Edited: November 01, 2019, 07:13:55 pm by jaichind »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

For what it is worth Electoral Calculus model which has CON at 363 seats overall has Workington at
 
CON   34.9 (-6.8  )
LAB    32.1 (-19.0)
BXP     16.1 (New)
LDM    11.8 (+9.1)
Green   2.7 (New)
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #188 on: November 01, 2019, 08:00:51 pm »

keep in mind the... spotty history of constituency polling in the UK.  Wasn't a whole lot done in the last election but in 2015 there were masses of the things to try and unpick an election somewhat similar to this one: a massive shift in the dynamics of the vote with the collapse of the Lib Dems and the rise of UKIP.  What those polls revealed was an apparently strong personal vote for incumbent Lib Dem MPs; the general voting intention had most Liberal seats falling while when they threw in candidate names the Lib Dems held a lot more of their seats.  This was the reason behind the very high Lib Dem projections in 2015: some people saying that even on 8% of the vote they'd hold onto 30 seats because of this personal vote.

What happened?  The outcomes were closest to the general voting intention questions in those seats; the vast majority of Lib Dem MPs lost their seats and they ended up with 8.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #189 on: November 01, 2019, 08:04:28 pm »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before
I think people are underestimating the number of Labours to the Brexit Party. I heard many Labour Leave voters are seeing a vote for the Tories are step too far, but voting for the Brexit Party is easier for them. Many people are assuming too fast that the Brexit Party is a threat to only the Conservatives, while I think its also a big threat as for Labour as well in these Leave Labour seats
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #190 on: November 01, 2019, 08:54:29 pm »

There are no such thing as Brexit or Remain seats!

A Labour- Tory marginal seat in the Midlands that voted 52-48 leave is still a million times different to a 52-48 leave voting Lib-Tory marginal in the South West. Equally a 24 year old single mum who voted leave in the first seat is a lot different to a 57 year old professional who voted leave in the second seat.

We’re talking about groups respectively of 17 and 16 million people; and any voter between the age of 18-21 couldn’t vote in 2016 by my maths.

We know seats that ‘voted leave’ can still easily vote for the Lib Dem’s- we already have examples of this when the Lib Dem’s won before- Carshalton, Westmoreland, Brecon and Radnorshire and Eastbourne to give four.

The Lib Dem’s even now are not just a stop Brexit Party; they’re actually a cash rich, Uber local, and activist led party with a strong local base. They have a history of winning seats they shouldn’t by getting local people to run on bin collections who win as a council, then run the council, then win the seat etc. They also have regions of historic strength that did well for them at the local elections.

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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #191 on: November 02, 2019, 02:30:22 am »

Yes the importance of Scottish leave voters has been ignored; I’m sure I’m as guilty as most but there’s a trend to treat Scotland as one universal set of seats rather than the 4-5 different clusters you have

Any Scottish leave voter is simply an SNP voter. There is virtually zero leave-unionist piece of the electoral pie big enough to swing a seat.
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cp
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« Reply #192 on: November 02, 2019, 04:04:22 am »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before
I think people are underestimating the number of Labours to the Brexit Party. I heard many Labour Leave voters are seeing a vote for the Tories are step too far, but voting for the Brexit Party is easier for them. Many people are assuming too fast that the Brexit Party is a threat to only the Conservatives, while I think its also a big threat as for Labour as well in these Leave Labour seats

If people are underestimating Lab>Bxp voters, there's good reason for it. Study after study looking into these voters has shown they are far more motivated by non-Brexit issues (NHS, education, income inequality, etc.) than Brexit itself. It's not that Brexit isn't a factor, it's just that if asked to choose between a single issue party and their longstanding political leanings, they opt for their longstanding political leanings.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #193 on: November 02, 2019, 04:39:40 am »

One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?
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cp
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« Reply #194 on: November 02, 2019, 04:52:23 am »

One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?

Inroads, maybe, but not a breakthrough. Keep in mind, London Labour's support is deep, their electoral machine is superb, and they've got candidates who are pretty well aligned to their constituents' priorities (Katy Hoey aside). It's also worth remembering Sadiq Khan is running for reelection in 6 months, so there's a well trained and primed activist base across the city prepared to turn its attention to a GE.

On the broader point of how Johnson will fare vis a vis 2017: Thanks to Brexit, precisely no one believes Johnson, and the party beneath him, is appreciably more liberal than May. The Tories will struggle to hold scores of seats in the SE and SW, not so much due to vote switching but because a sizeable portion of their core vote will just stay home in protest. On the other side, with the Brexit Party lining up to run virtually everywhere, the Tories will struggle to pick up the votes they need to win Leave heavy Labour seats in the midlands and north. If the Brexit Party rises high enough (anything above 15% or so) the Tories will also struggle to hold marginal seats everywhere.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #195 on: November 02, 2019, 05:09:58 am »

I wouldn't be surprised if the overall result is pretty much the same as 2017.... or indeed the situation as this Parliament comes to an end. More deadlock.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #196 on: November 02, 2019, 05:45:33 am »
« Edited: November 02, 2019, 06:14:08 am by politicallefty »

On the broader point of how Johnson will fare vis a vis 2017: Thanks to Brexit, precisely no one believes Johnson, and the party beneath him, is appreciably more liberal than May. The Tories will struggle to hold scores of seats in the SE and SW, not so much due to vote switching but because a sizeable portion of their core vote will just stay home in protest. On the other side, with the Brexit Party lining up to run virtually everywhere, the Tories will struggle to pick up the votes they need to win Leave heavy Labour seats in the midlands and north. If the Brexit Party rises high enough (anything above 15% or so) the Tories will also struggle to hold marginal seats everywhere.

All good points. If we're looking at a strong Brexit Party, we should instead be looking more to the 2015 election. However, that doesn't work due to the complete decimation of the Lib Dems and the SNP at their virtual maximum seat count. Am I the only thinking this election is going to be very difficult to figure out until the votes are actually counted? And of course, as Theresa May found out the hard way, campaigns do actually matter. I'd feel a lot better about Labour if it wasn't Corbyn leading the party. His approvals are astronomically bad right now when they were roughly net neutral in 2017.

I wouldn't be surprised if the overall result is pretty much the same as 2017.... or indeed the situation as this Parliament comes to an end. More deadlock.

I've been thinking the same actually. It was only a marginal difference from 2015 though. Would the Tory Majority from 2015 realistically have been able to pass anything (under either May or Johnson)? It seems unlikely to me.
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« Reply #197 on: November 02, 2019, 06:10:16 am »

One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?

Inroads, maybe, but not a breakthrough. Keep in mind, London Labour's support is deep, their electoral machine is superb, and they've got candidates who are pretty well aligned to their constituents' priorities (Katy Hoey aside). It's also worth remembering Sadiq Khan is running for reelection in 6 months, so there's a well trained and primed activist base across the city prepared to turn its attention to a GE.

On that note, is the London mayor race anything other than safe Labour? I definitely can't see the Tories winning it, and the even the Lib Dems seems like a stretch.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #198 on: November 02, 2019, 06:15:42 am »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

Conservatives have won the seat once -- in a 1976 by-election
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cp
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« Reply #199 on: November 02, 2019, 06:53:45 am »

One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?

Inroads, maybe, but not a breakthrough. Keep in mind, London Labour's support is deep, their electoral machine is superb, and they've got candidates who are pretty well aligned to their constituents' priorities (Katy Hoey aside). It's also worth remembering Sadiq Khan is running for reelection in 6 months, so there's a well trained and primed activist base across the city prepared to turn its attention to a GE.

On that note, is the London mayor race anything other than safe Labour? I definitely can't see the Tories winning it, and the even the Lib Dems seems like a stretch.

Haven't seen any polling in a while but my take is that Khan will be reelected comfortably. The only news of note lately is Rory Stewart - a centrist Tory from Cumbria and the Beto O'Rourke of the last leadership election - inexplicably threw his hat into the ring as an independent.
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