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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 70083 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #250 on: November 03, 2019, 05:13:15 pm »

It doesn't matter so much whether Labour is definitively for Remain no matter what in this election, because either a soft Brexit or Remain are much better than Boris' hard Brexit, and not voting for Labour in most seats effectively makes a hard Brexit more likely.
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DaWN
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« Reply #251 on: November 03, 2019, 05:37:47 pm »

Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...

We will certainly get hard Brexit if large number of "remainers" waste their votes on the LibDems or Greens in seats that they could not possibly win, but Labour might.

A vote for Labour is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Hard Brexit. For him, worker's rights, human rights, jobs created by intra-EU trade, industry and communities supported by it, the threat of companies leaving the UK and the threat of the NHS being sold off to American big pharma are all unimportant because the EU once said something nasty and capitalist. On Brexit terms, there's no difference between Labour and the Tories and its Corbyn Labour's one great skill that they have managed to convince millions this isn't the case.

A vote for genuine Remain representation in Parliament is much better than that. Unfortunately, a large number of Remainers will see it your way and there will be 500+ MPs committed to Hard Brexit in the next parliament. Because of that, I'd be ecstatic with 20 Lib Dem MPs.

TLDR; "I'm voting Labour because I don't prioritise Brexit and I agree with them on the issues" is a stance I'm perfectly fine with. I don't agree with it but it's a reasonable one. "I'm voting Labour because they'll prevent Hard Brexit" is ridiculous and counterproductive to the Remain cause.

And before anyone points it out, yes I'm bitter and my distaste of the whole situation is bringing emotion into my judgement, which is obviously not ideal.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #252 on: November 03, 2019, 05:42:29 pm »

A vote for Labour is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Hard Brexit. For him, worker's rights, human rights, jobs created by intra-EU trade, industry and communities supported by it, the threat of companies leaving the UK and the threat of the NHS being sold off to American big pharma are all unimportant because the EU once said something nasty and capitalist. On Brexit terms, there's no difference between Labour and the Tories and its Corbyn Labour's one great skill that they have managed to convince millions this isn't the case.

A vote for genuine Remain representation in Parliament is much better than that. Unfortunately, a large number of Remainers will see it your way and there will be 500+ MPs committed to Hard Brexit in the next parliament. Because of that, I'd be ecstatic with 20 Lib Dem MPs.

TLDR; "I'm voting Labour because I don't prioritise Brexit and I agree with them on the issues" is a stance I'm perfectly fine with. I don't agree with it but it's a reasonable one. "I'm voting Labour because they'll prevent Hard Brexit" is ridiculous and counterproductive to the Remain cause.

And before anyone points it out, yes I'm bitter and my distaste of the whole situation is bringing emotion into my judgement, which is obviously not ideal.

You're not being "bitter" or "emotional", you're making sh**t up out of whole cloth.

If you want to criticize Corbyn's position on the EU that's more than fine with me, but you're obviously not interested in engaging with reality at all, so there's no point in arguing with you at all.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #253 on: November 03, 2019, 05:50:19 pm »

Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)
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cp
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« Reply #254 on: November 04, 2019, 02:43:44 am »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 11:53:36 am by cp »

Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunk of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #255 on: November 04, 2019, 05:32:17 am »

Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunck of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.

Only if you assume the EU is willing to offer the UK yet another deal.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #256 on: November 04, 2019, 05:56:07 am »

If there is a change of government, they will go along with that (even if not too enthusiastically)
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DaWN
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« Reply #257 on: November 04, 2019, 06:33:51 am »

And only if you assume Labour won't go back on its second referendum pledge. Which I don't.

In other (much less angry and confrontational news) Rick Wakeman's 'Arthur' is apparently back as the BBC's Election Theme. I think I can say without fear of contradiction that this is the best news we've had all election.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #258 on: November 04, 2019, 07:29:16 am »

Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

It needs to be mentioned that Hilary Benn is very different from his father in worldview.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #259 on: November 04, 2019, 08:18:40 am »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 08:22:22 am by Oryxslayer »

Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunck of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.

it all sounds good whene put like that, but lets remember that this is FPTP, which loves to push things towards a 1v1 dichotomy based on clear partisan lines. Holding the middle ground is a smart thing to do both in the long term, and in the short term when considering labours voter divide and leadership vs backbench on the issue. Unless you are one of the 30-40% who have prior affiliations with labour, it's easy to look at a issue and gravitate towards the simplest most  polarizing message. Their 30-40% is certainly not immune to the 'all-or-nothing' messaging, it's just going to take a bit more effort to convert them. This was one of Clintons problem: rightly had a lot of details, but that made her programs harder to markets when compared to Trump's catchy one-liners. The Tories and the LDs are going to keep pestering Corbyn because Labour is weak on this issue that so many people  care about, 'which side are you on' statements may work wonders. It's labours job to navigate and have a appropriate counterargument for these upcoming attacks.

The the other thing to note is that there likely will be some sort of LD 'moment' because of Labour weakness on this issue. I would be seriously surprised if the LDs just had a slow decline in polls and didn't have a point where they recover upwards before falling back down. The tories also are going to be throwing tons of softballs towards Swinson because like Harper's Canadian Conservatives, they want to see the third party carve up the opposition. Now the moment may just be that, a moment, and it is not limited any specific period of the campaign. It's labour's job to be ready for the LD bump when it happens and be willing to adjust their platform, talking points, or campaign approach to push the LDs back down to their prior position.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #260 on: November 04, 2019, 12:21:41 pm »

Some good news for Labour: Woodcock is to stand down at Barrow & Furness. He and his partner (liberal journalist Isabel Hardman, whose employment by the increasingly hard-right Spectator is, of course, a source of continued bafflement to all) are having a baby and he seems to have decided to move forward with his life. Had he run again I doubt he would have won, but he'd have knocked the seat right of contention. As it is, well, once again it will depend on how that peculiar collection of peculiar towns responds to whatever the hell the national environment is by December.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #261 on: November 04, 2019, 12:27:55 pm »

Labours Lindsay Hoyle looks likely to be elected the next speaker in one of the upcoming ballots. I have a feeling the Tories and the LDs won't even think of contesting the seat, since the decision to hold a speaker vote before the poll was a decision made to temper uncertainty.
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cp
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« Reply #262 on: November 04, 2019, 12:42:26 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 12:47:35 pm by cp »



All told, this is fairly good news for everyone. The Tories are still in the lead and gained more than Labour. Labour's also gained and is within spitting distance of the lead in a way they aren't in other polls. The Lib Dems and Brexit Party only dropped by small amounts, so easily dismissed as statistical noise.

Elsewhere, the Brexit Party PPC (prospective parliamentary candidate, for those not in the UK) dropped out and switched to the Tories. This is good news for the Tories, as the seat in question, Dudley South, is just the kind of place where a strong Brexit Party presence could cost the Tories a seat they cannot afford to lose.
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« Reply #263 on: November 04, 2019, 01:25:46 pm »

Seems as if it is 2017 all over again. Which is expected, but disappointing, in my personal opinion, as it shows voters are willing to ignore the problems of the two main parties as long as they keep their opponent out of Westminster. Which just makes it easier for weak or unpopular leaders, like Corbyn, to stay in power and not be held accountable.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #264 on: November 04, 2019, 01:28:41 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).
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« Reply #265 on: November 04, 2019, 01:34:59 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #266 on: November 04, 2019, 01:40:38 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #267 on: November 04, 2019, 01:43:39 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #268 on: November 04, 2019, 01:58:13 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 

Not OP but I suspect Long is going back to Westminster. The Alliance is the only NI party with any sense of 'momentun:' the Sinners and DUP are down from their 2017 high and the SDLP/UUP are trading a consistent and long-term stable vote share for actual seats. But beyond her the Alliance's prospects lower, even with their momentum. For more check out this (now outdated) analysis I snagged from a Northern Irishman from another forum.
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afleitch
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« Reply #269 on: November 04, 2019, 02:11:25 pm »

Here's a basic 'paint' map for you to colour in

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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #270 on: November 04, 2019, 03:07:26 pm »

afleitch, your post reminded me.  Here is a map of MPs not standing or moving seats in the upcoming election.  I'll have a final map on the 14th when nominations close and appeals are done.



Also, I used the party the MP was elected with instead of what they currently hold.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #271 on: November 04, 2019, 03:58:03 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 

I don't know tbh. First off, the abstention by SF and sdlp won't matter - I don't think the nationalist vote combined has ever even come close to breaking the 5% desosit threshold. The issue is that the current MP has a pretty thumping lead and is not surrounded by scandal (which was the reason Long won back in 2010) - in a place as inflexible as NI it could be insurmountable, and if he is defeated it would indicate a serious issue with rhe DUP as a brand. I honestly think, even with alliance doing well, he is the safest DUP MP in Belfast.
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« Reply #272 on: November 04, 2019, 04:28:11 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East?  

I don't know tbh. First off, the abstention by SF and sdlp won't matter - I don't think the nationalist vote combined has ever even come close to breaking the 5% desosit threshold. The issue is that the current MP has a pretty thumping lead and is not surrounded by scandal (which was the reason Long won back in 2010) - in a place as inflexible as NI it could be insurmountable, and if he is defeated it would indicate a serious issue with rhe DUP as a brand. I honestly think, even with alliance doing well, he is the safest DUP MP in Belfast.

I do agree with this; I think the Alliance has a better shot in Belfast South, where they could win on a close split between the Unionist and Nationalist parties, than in Belfast East.
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« Reply #273 on: November 04, 2019, 05:54:05 pm »

SF standing down in N Down is a bit odd, as whilst it saves them 500 it doesn't help Hermon win and it probably increases their chances of shedding votes to a dissident candidate in Foyle and hence letting the SDLP back in.

As for Belfast East and South, I think it both were entirely within the city limits then the Alliance would take them both, but in East they'll probably trail enough from Dundonald that they won't be able to catch up in Belfast itself. South is probably their best prospect, but candidate quality probably gives the SDLP an advantage. A lot also depends on how much the Green vote does or doesn't get squeezed.
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« Reply #274 on: November 04, 2019, 07:21:20 pm »



All told, this is fairly good news for everyone. The Tories are still in the lead and gained more than Labour. Labour's also gained and is within spitting distance of the lead in a way they aren't in other polls. The Lib Dems and Brexit Party only dropped by small amounts, so easily dismissed as statistical noise.

Elsewhere, the Brexit Party PPC (prospective parliamentary candidate, for those not in the UK) dropped out and switched to the Tories. This is good news for the Tories, as the seat in question, Dudley South, is just the kind of place where a strong Brexit Party presence could cost the Tories a seat they cannot afford to lose.

Though the changes in this poll are compared to a previous one nearly a month ago - the Tories gained between then and late October in most polling.
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