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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 19209 times)
(CT) The Free North
CTRattlesnake
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« Reply #375 on: November 08, 2019, 02:30:59 pm »

What sort of result for Labour would force Corbyn out? Or is his support too solid at this point among party loyalists to be harmed by one poor election?
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cp
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« Reply #376 on: November 08, 2019, 03:33:39 pm »

2017 wasn't a win, but it wasn't a bad election for Labour (as far as not winning it goes): they gained seats and votes, they severely hampered their principal opponents, defied expectations all around.

A 2019 loss would be something much more unambiguous. Corbyn would likely not be able to last until the subsequent election. The flip side of this, of course, is that anything but a total loss (i.e. Tory majority) likely makes him PM.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #377 on: November 08, 2019, 03:39:34 pm »

Corbyn is 70; he's probably gone by 2024 regardless. Whether he becomes PM in a hung Parliament remains to be seen - convention is that the incumbent PM stays on until he resigns or is ousted via losing a confidence vote.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #378 on: November 08, 2019, 03:47:20 pm »

2017 wasn't a win, but it wasn't a bad election for Labour (as far as not winning it goes): they gained seats and votes, they severely hampered their principal opponents, defied expectations all around.

A 2019 loss would be something much more unambiguous. Corbyn would likely not be able to last until the subsequent election. The flip side of this, of course, is that anything but a total loss (i.e. Tory majority) likely makes him PM.

Tough call on the bold. If the Tories are larger than Labour+SNP, and even if they're smaller than Labour+SNP but Labour+SNP are far short of a majority, I think another election in early 2020 is at least as likely as, or maybe more likely than, PM Corbyn.
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cp
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« Reply #379 on: November 08, 2019, 04:15:21 pm »

Fair point. There's a narrow window where the Tories are not a majority, but also so much larger than Labour that Labour can't form a majority (my guess is 310-320 seats). In that case, yes another election is likely. If Lab+SNP+LD is >330 then I think it'll be a *very shaky* minority government for 9 months or so in order to hold a referendum.
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vileplume
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« Reply #380 on: November 08, 2019, 06:14:39 pm »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 06:26:24 pm by vileplume »

It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.

Great post!

Whilst it at present looks likely the Tories will win this election (of course that could change) sooner or later they will lose power for the simple reason that the electorate will be sick of them after a decade+ in power and that's before we even consider any economic downturns that may be on the horizon. When they do lose I believe it will likely usher in a significant period of left rule, probably led by someone more competent and likeable than Corbyn, in which the Tories are confined to an infighting irrelevance whilst the left push through transformational change (e.g. how Labour was in the 80s when the right was in its ascendancy).

Eventually the Tories will have to come up with a way to appeal to Millennial and Gen Z voters (and indeed ethnic minority voters) and if they do they will eventually return to power when Labour has run its course, probably led by a Blair-esque centrist looking person. If they fail to do this however they risk a party like the Lib Dems eclipsing them as the major party of the centre-right (the Lib Dems do appear to be moving in the direction of becoming the party of centre-right metropolitans with their newfound strength in Wimbledon, Putney, Chelsea, Wokingham, Esher etc.)

Of course we could get Proportional Representation by then which would completely realign the political landscape in ways that would be very difficult to predict.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #381 on: November 08, 2019, 08:21:32 pm »

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.
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Deranged California Suburbanite
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« Reply #382 on: November 08, 2019, 11:55:37 pm »

Just a thought that I had this afternoon:

In the recent Canadian election in Newfoundland, the Liberals lost something like 20%, and only lost one (of seven) seats. The Tories gained most of that, with the NDP gaining only two percent or so. However, the NDP gained the one seat that the Liberals lost. Could we see something like that in some places here? Ie, Labour loses a lot in the popular vote, but not many seats?
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cp
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« Reply #383 on: November 09, 2019, 02:37:15 am »

That's a good question! It's certainly plausible, both for the Tory and Labour vote. There's a lot of huge majorities for Labour up north and in central London. The Tories get huge majorities in the rural and suburban south and east, too. Either of these areas could see huge drops in votes for the dominant party but very few seats change hands, and which seats did flip would depend on the differential as much as the drop, i.e. did the Tories' vote drop more than Labour's did, or vice versa.

If there was a big drop for one of the parties in their heartland, however, it would probably correlate to a drop in scores of marginal seats, too. The result would likely be a landslide for the Tories or an unexpected majority for Labour.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #384 on: November 09, 2019, 07:54:21 am »

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen
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jaichind
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« Reply #385 on: November 09, 2019, 08:06:42 am »

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #386 on: November 09, 2019, 08:17:46 am »

Subsamples mostly from weeks ago.
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Anomalocaris🌹
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« Reply #387 on: November 09, 2019, 11:45:28 am »

If you were to go off of current polling, Conservatives will pick up a bunch of seats, Labour will be crushed, Brexit Party might pick up a couple seats, and Liberal Democrats will win a bunch of seats too.

Current polling. Of course, the same thing was said about the general election in 2017. We all know how that ended.

Thank you for the insight, brother. Prayer Emoji.
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afleitch
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« Reply #388 on: November 09, 2019, 01:42:22 pm »

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It was a full poll. But yes it's old.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #389 on: November 09, 2019, 01:52:22 pm »

Let's just say that today was the first time I and probably many other people have heard of Dan Carden, so he didn't exactly make a good first impression.
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adma
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« Reply #390 on: November 09, 2019, 02:14:49 pm »

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #391 on: November 09, 2019, 02:54:21 pm »

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #392 on: November 09, 2019, 03:09:09 pm »



Guess it's time for the regularly scheduled  weekend poll drop. Overall, Opinium's numbers and changes match the general trend from last week: Lab up a bit, Lib-Dems down a bit, but everyone's overall rather stable except Brexit. Brexit keeps falling and I wouldn't be surprised if they wind up a zombie party.
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cp
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« Reply #393 on: November 09, 2019, 03:13:29 pm »

I'd hold off on that last prediction for another couple of weeks. If we are to believe Farage is genuinely trying to broker a Tory/BP pact, he has deliberately held his fire for the time being. Once the registration deadline, and the possibility of a formal pact, passes next Friday the Brexit Party may start to register much more.
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adma
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« Reply #394 on: November 09, 2019, 04:34:53 pm »

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.

No it isn't; it's the *new* neoliberal right!  If you get my drift.  (Also cf Justin Trudeau)
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parochial boy
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« Reply #395 on: November 09, 2019, 05:08:38 pm »

France is a bit different in that its party system is weaker to begin with - ie formerly major players like the Radicals, UDF or even SFIO could dissapear off the face of the earth. In the UK, the Liberals have been almost dead on a couple of occasions, but always slithered back into existence. In that respect, no matter what, I think a future period of opposition; adjustment to new, ehm, realities; the old governing instruments and a degree of the electorate's short memories will mean the Tories will come back and win future elections. The bigger structural worry for the Conservative party is probably the ageing and declining activist base; coupled with the risk it gets tken over by hard right entryists.
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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #396 on: November 09, 2019, 05:08:50 pm »

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.

No it isn't; it's the *new* neoliberal right!  If you get my drift.  (Also cf Justin Trudeau)

The closing line of a certain song by the Who comes to mind...
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #397 on: November 09, 2019, 05:29:16 pm »

"Oh tell me who are you, you, you, ah you?"
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #398 on: November 09, 2019, 07:30:40 pm »

Let's just say that today was the first time I and probably many other people have heard of Dan Carden, so he didn't exactly make a good first impression.

What has been alleged very likely didn't happen.
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Annatar
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« Reply #399 on: November 09, 2019, 11:14:04 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 05:55:54 am by Annatar »

It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.

Great post!

Whilst it at present looks likely the Tories will win this election (of course that could change) sooner or later they will lose power for the simple reason that the electorate will be sick of them after a decade+ in power and that's before we even consider any economic downturns that may be on the horizon. When they do lose I believe it will likely usher in a significant period of left rule, probably led by someone more competent and likeable than Corbyn, in which the Tories are confined to an infighting irrelevance whilst the left push through transformational change (e.g. how Labour was in the 80s when the right was in its ascendancy).

Eventually the Tories will have to come up with a way to appeal to Millennial and Gen Z voters (and indeed ethnic minority voters) and if they do they will eventually return to power when Labour has run its course, probably led by a Blair-esque centrist looking person. If they fail to do this however they risk a party like the Lib Dems eclipsing them as the major party of the centre-right (the Lib Dems do appear to be moving in the direction of becoming the party of centre-right metropolitans with their newfound strength in Wimbledon, Putney, Chelsea, Wokingham, Esher etc.)

Of course we could get Proportional Representation by then which would completely realign the political landscape in ways that would be very difficult to predict.

The age distribution isn't simply young vs old though, Conservatives are winning voters from around the age of 45 onward, someone who is 45 will be voting for another 40 years on average, 50 year olds are on average voting pretty Conservative and they will be voting for around 35 more years. Conservatives can rely on voters in their 40's and 50's for decades to come.
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