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December 06, 2019, 11:13:47 am
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 43373 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #475 on: November 12, 2019, 01:35:19 pm »

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

At the national level, Survation knows what it is doing and YouGov does not.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #476 on: November 12, 2019, 01:47:20 pm »

They did last time. Not necessarily a guarantee that they do this time.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #477 on: November 12, 2019, 01:54:57 pm »
« Edited: November 12, 2019, 01:58:29 pm by Oryxslayer »

They did last time. Not necessarily a guarantee that they do this time.

Rule one of elections: Cherry Picking or throwing out polls means you are biased or an idiot, unless said polls were  commissioned by Mclaughlin. Instead you weight/average said polls and look at the overall trends, which right now all look like this, even though there is some MOE disagreement by a point or 2 depending on your weights.





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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #478 on: November 12, 2019, 01:58:08 pm »

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

Though that is just one point up on their previous poll, and none at all before a methodology change (supposedly accounting for BxP not standing in Tory seats) is added. On that evidence, not exactly the turbo-boost to Johnson's campaign some pundits excitedly proclaimed.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #479 on: November 12, 2019, 01:59:10 pm »

For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #480 on: November 12, 2019, 02:00:24 pm »

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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #481 on: November 12, 2019, 02:01:09 pm »

For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.

Actually Tories 43.5 Labour 41 if we are doing GB scores (as most pollsters do)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #482 on: November 12, 2019, 02:03:19 pm »

For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.

Actually Tories 43.5 Labour 41 if we are doing GB scores (as most pollsters do)

Though, as it happens, not Survation.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #483 on: November 12, 2019, 02:08:52 pm »



oof
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #484 on: November 12, 2019, 02:11:52 pm »



After he had made a total tit of himself, mind. Though it is a mystery why the LibDems thought they should have a "high profile" candidate in this one anyway - they will probably replace him before the Thursday deadline but this time round it really will be a token.  
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #485 on: November 12, 2019, 02:54:43 pm »


After he had made a total tit of himself, mind. Though it is a mystery why the LibDems thought they should have a "high profile" candidate in this one anyway - they will probably replace him before the Thursday deadline but this time round it really will be a token.  

Sorry, how did Walker make a total tit of himself? Not doubting it or anything, it's just that I hadn't heard of any incidents regarding him having occurred.
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Pericles
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« Reply #486 on: November 13, 2019, 04:35:52 am »

David Gauke is standing as an Independent. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/ex-tory-cabinet-minister-david-gauke-to-run-as-independent He is now backing a second referendum, saying that the country could no longer be united around a "relatively soft Brexit". Gauke also suggested that people should vote LibDem in many constituencies (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/13/vote-lib-dem-urges-former-conservative-minister-david-gauke), saying "A Conservative majority after the next general election will take us in the direction of a very hard Brexit and in all likelihood at the end of 2020 we will leave the implementation period without a deal with the EU on WTO  terms – in effect on no-deal terms – and that I believe would be disastrous for the prosperity of this country."

Indeed he is probably right, Johnson has promised not to extend the transition period (though his promises are now pretty unreliable) and has even refused to give parliament a vote on such an extension, plus he has probably made some kind of deal with the Brexit Party. Therefore, the UK would have to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU in one year, which is if anything more implausible than leaving the EU on October 31 was.

Good on Gauke for standing on principle, I hope he wins. His constituency I believe voted for Remain but I don't know much about the contest, does he have a good shot at winning?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #487 on: November 13, 2019, 06:25:44 am »

According to Election Calculus Hertfordshire South West voted 46% Leave.

The Liberal Dem has decided on his own volition to withdraw.  The Liberal Dems are considering replacements.  The Green Party is not contesting the seat. It is also a seat covered by by the Brexit Party standown.
 
In 2017 Gauke as the Tory candidate won the seat with 57.9%. The other percentages were Labour 25.7%, Liberal Dem. 11.7%, Green 2.6%, UKIP 2.1%.

Without Gauke as an Independent candidate and without Liberal Dem, Green, or Brexit candidates Electoral Calculus predicts the following results  Conservative 61%, Labour 37.7%, UKIP .4%, Other .9%.

I guess Gauke figures he is a popular MP and that he can take enough of the Conservative and Labour vote to win.  With the Leave vote at 46% I do not see him pulling this off, even if the Labour candidate stood down.  I also do not see a Labour stand down materializing.

I think Gauke may have developed some delusions of grandeur.
 
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cp
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« Reply #488 on: November 13, 2019, 06:31:16 am »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 06:35:43 am by cp »


Good on Gauke for standing on principle, I hope he wins. His constituency I believe voted for Remain but I don't know much about the contest, does he have a good shot at winning?

Indeed, kudos to him. His shot at winning is debatable. The seat, South West Hertfordshire, is quintessentially Home County Tory. They always win there - even in 1997 the Tories had a majority of 10K+. Labour came in 2nd in 2017, but 20K votes behind, and in previous years the Lib Dems have occasionally taken second place, again with around a 10K+ deficits.

On the other hand, Gauke has been around for over a decade and appears to have his own 'personal' vote on top of what you would expect any Tory to get. Also, SWH voted remain 53/47, and it's reasonable to assume it's more remainy now than in 2016.

If Gauke runs he could very well poach enough of the Tory vote to win, but probably only if either the Lib Dems or Labour stands down and endorses him, too. Even then, unless it's Labour that stands down I doubt even deep personal affection for Gauke would be enough for most (Tory) voters in the area to 'risk' a vote for him, lest it allow Labour to win by coming up the middle.

Edit:

The Liberal Dem has decided on his own volition to withdraw.  The Liberal Dems are considering replacements.  The Green Party is not contesting the seat. It is also a seat covered by by the Brexit Party standown.
 

Have they? I haven't seen that reported, but it might be buried pretty far down with all the news during an election.
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DaWN
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« Reply #489 on: November 13, 2019, 06:38:28 am »

This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.
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Cassius
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« Reply #490 on: November 13, 2019, 07:40:21 am »

https://youtu.be/97zPDojMWiQ

Is this satire? Also, enough of this ing ‘oven ready’ Brexit for the microwave mixed metaphor.

This is one of the problemswith Johnson - every time he gets asked a simple question about anything, trivial or non-trivial, outside of the context of PMQ’s, he looks and responds as if the question were ‘would you like to come with us sir? Down the station’.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #491 on: November 13, 2019, 07:55:44 am »

This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.

It's not complicated. A man who is member of a party almost entirely oriented around stopping Brexit determined that the best way of stopping Brexit was not running at all. When your party makes itself entirely about stopping Brexit, this is entirely the right thing to do. In fact, the only mystery is why more members of the party entirely about stopping Brexit wouldn't do what is most likely to stop Brexit and step down. The LibDems prattlr on and on about Brexit but when it comes down to making hard choices to stop Brexit they go about political strutting that makes stopping Brexit less likely. But please do go on (and on) about how thr LibDems are the only party capable of stopping Brexit.
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DaWN
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« Reply #492 on: November 13, 2019, 08:00:56 am »

This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.

It's not complicated. A man who is member of a party almost entirely oriented around stopping Brexit determined that the best way of stopping Brexit was not running at all. When your party makes itself entirely about stopping Brexit, this is entirely the right thing to do. In fact, the only mystery is why more members of the party entirely about stopping Brexit wouldn't do what is most likely to stop Brexit and step down. The LibDems prattlr on and on about Brexit but when it comes down to making hard choices to stop Brexit they go about political strutting that makes stopping Brexit less likely. But please do go on (and on) about how thr LibDems are the only party capable of stopping Brexit.

You mustn't have read any posts of mine before then
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #493 on: November 13, 2019, 09:58:50 am »

This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.

Lol regardless of what you think of Corbyn on this issue & a potential "Lexit," you can't equate Rosie Duffield to Corbyn on this issue. She is a legitimate full-on Remainer, through & through.
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DaWN
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« Reply #494 on: November 13, 2019, 10:00:47 am »



What morons. Corbyn probably can't believe his luck. Not only is his conning people into thinking he'll support Remain working, he's actually getting help for it! And the Lib Dems wonder why they got plastered so badly in 2015.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #495 on: November 13, 2019, 10:40:15 am »



What morons. Corbyn probably can't believe his luck. Not only is his conning people into thinking he'll support Remain working, he's actually getting help for it! And the Lib Dems wonder why they got plastered so badly in 2015.

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.
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DaWN
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« Reply #496 on: November 13, 2019, 10:44:09 am »

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #497 on: November 13, 2019, 11:01:18 am »



What morons. Corbyn probably can't believe his luck. Not only is his conning people into thinking he'll support Remain working, he's actually getting help for it! And the Lib Dems wonder why they got plastered so badly in 2015.

It's almost as though remainers want to do what it takes to, you know, remain.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #498 on: November 13, 2019, 11:14:18 am »

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour, but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.
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DaWN
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« Reply #499 on: November 13, 2019, 12:07:24 pm »

It's almost as though remainers want to do what it takes to, you know, remain.

By supporting a man who's done nothing but support Brexit for years? Brilliant logic. I guess in your view a great way for Democrats to get rid of Republicans in 2020 is to vote for Trump?

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour

Single MPs don't have the room to be independent mavericks in these hyper-polarised, charged up times. We saw that in the last parliament when MPs with years of service to the Conservative Party, including Ken Clarke, a man who served as a Tory chancellor and was Father of the House, were unceremoniously booted for opposing the party line on Brexit. I'm happy to bet a similar occurrence will take place in a Corbyn-led government.

And I can tell you've never met a Corbynite if you think they prioritise Remain over Corbyn Worship

but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.

He's been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years and his reward is about to be millions of remainers happily voting for him. I think it's a risk he'll take based on that.

--

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.
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