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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 47851 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #500 on: November 13, 2019, 12:31:48 pm »

Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.
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afleitch
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« Reply #501 on: November 13, 2019, 12:56:21 pm »

Still no polling from Scotland.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #502 on: November 13, 2019, 01:00:27 pm »

It's almost as though remainers want to do what it takes to, you know, remain.

By supporting a man who's done nothing but support Brexit for years? Brilliant logic. I guess in your view a great way for Democrats to get rid of Republicans in 2020 is to vote for Trump?

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour

Single MPs don't have the room to be independent mavericks in these hyper-polarised, charged up times. We saw that in the last parliament when MPs with years of service to the Conservative Party, including Ken Clarke, a man who served as a Tory chancellor and was Father of the House, were unceremoniously booted for opposing the party line on Brexit. I'm happy to bet a similar occurrence will take place in a Corbyn-led government.

And I can tell you've never met a Corbynite if you think they prioritise Remain over Corbyn Worship

but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.

He's been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years and his reward is about to be millions of remainers happily voting for him. I think it's a risk he'll take based on that.

--

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.

It is true for these two things to he true at the same time--that Corbyn is a feckless leader with little ability to see clearly on Brexit because he wears thick ideological blinders AND that Corbyn is the last, best hope for remainers. He certainly is more competent and less monstrous than his opponents think of him, in any case. He also is hemmed in enough by political reality that even of he were a closet leaver (I think he's just agnostic) his fecklessness still wouldn't prevent a second referendum which stands a good shot at overturning Brexit. In certain constituencies the LibDems may very well be a better option for remainers. But if remainers in many other constituencies see that Labour is the better remain choice, it's downright craven to suggest that they are sealing the deal for Brexit.
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cp
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« Reply #503 on: November 13, 2019, 01:00:39 pm »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 01:04:22 pm by cp »


My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.

There was a nearly instantaneous and unwavering denunciation by Jo Swinson of the mere idea of cooperating with Corbyn/Labour, both now and literally every other time it has come up. As you rightly point out, fearful Tory Remainers need to be reassured that voting Lib Dem doesn't equate to enabling a Corbyn government; the Lib Dem central office was pretty quick to swat down this idea. I'm not sure how you could have missed it.

To the broader point at hand, yes, you are correct to note Corbyn's longstanding Euroskepticism, perfunctory endorsement of Remain, and agonizingly slow adoption of a pro-referendum platform. However, you consistently overstate the case, assert facts that aren't in evidence, and ascribe to Corbyn/Labour motivations that don't make sense.

Corbyn's skeptical about the EU, but to say he's 'been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years' is patently false: he campaigned for remain in 2016, he voted against the Tories' deal multiple times, and whipped his party to do the same. I'd also point out that among Tory/UKIP/BXP circles Corbyn's nickname is 'Remainer-in-chief'.

Secondly, Corbyn is definitely popular among Labour members but he's not infallible. Speaking as a Corbynite (my Lib Dem husband can attest to this, much to his chagrin), I assure you that I would take a Remain win over a Corbyn one any day of the week. More relevantly (and less subjectively), Corbyn, though popular, is not the only major force within the party. Any informed observation of Labour party politics would recognize the enduring power of the unions (only two of which are pro-Brexit), the influence of Momentum which is overwhelmingly Remain and has called for a referendum repeatedly, and the obviously pivotal role internal party democracy plays in guiding the direction of the party (why else would all those NEC elections get so heated?). Like it or not, Labour is bigger than Corbyn and any attempt to simplistically conflate the two deserves to be dismissed out of hand as nonsense.

Finally, whatever one thinks of Corbyn's personal motivations, the last few years have demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that he is far more wily and pragmatic than anyone assumed. Think about it: he's a lifelong Republican and anti-nuclear activist who has comfortably left those passions aside and adopted the mainstream Labour Party pro-monarchy/Trident line; he spent two decades denouncing 'triangulation' by Blair and then spent 3 years straddling the Remain/Leave divide with his 'Brexit if necessary but not necessarily Brexit' style policy; he even started wearing a suit and tie and singing (ok, nodding along) to the national anthem.

It's easy and tempting to denounce Corbyn, I know. But is it really so hard to believe that he might be willing to appease his party on Brexit? Especially when power is so close at hand.

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #504 on: November 13, 2019, 01:10:28 pm »

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour

Single MPs don't have the room to be independent mavericks in these hyper-polarised, charged up times. We saw that in the last parliament when MPs with years of service to the Conservative Party, including Ken Clarke, a man who served as a Tory chancellor and was Father of the House, were unceremoniously booted for opposing the party line on Brexit. I'm happy to bet a similar occurrence will take place in a Corbyn-led government.

And I can tell you've never met a Corbynite if you think they prioritise Remain over Corbyn Worship

How do you not realize that your logic (single maverick MPs don't have the room to exist) is in & of itself negated by the very example you brought up? Nevertheless, you can bet on something all you want, but when it comes to expelling ideologically-opposed MPs from the parliamentary party, Corbyn hasn't done in more than 4 years what it took BoJo less than 2 months to do, so perhaps that's a tell that what you think is gonna happen isn't actually gonna happen.

Moreover, the MPs in question (especially Duffield) are far from Corbynites, but you wouldn't know that unless you took literally a second to examine who these individual MPs actually are.

but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.

He's been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years and his reward is about to be millions of remainers happily voting for him. I think it's a risk he'll take based on that.

--

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.

Nuance is something that completely escapes you. I'm not surprised that you think this way, as all the reasoning you've exhibited in your comments here has been extraordinarily shallow. It's unfortunate that you approach such complex problems with this degree of myopia. It's especially unfortunate that you haven't learned in all your years of life that politics, like life itself, is a bit more complex than your simple reductionism.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #505 on: November 13, 2019, 01:28:01 pm »

Anyway, the SNP have now joined the LibDems and filed a legal suit with ITV over their decision to make the first debate 1v1. The SNP is citing their position as 3rd largest party, the LibDems cited their competitive poll numbers, numbers that are similar to what Clegg had before the surge. Essentially ITV needed to set out SOME parameters for getting into their debate, they could have been high AF and restricted it to the top two, but setting out none and saying top two looks like you're playing favorites.
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« Reply #506 on: November 13, 2019, 01:31:47 pm »

Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.
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tomm_86
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« Reply #507 on: November 13, 2019, 01:32:58 pm »


To me that seems pretty crazy.
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jaichind
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« Reply #508 on: November 13, 2019, 03:53:20 pm »

The lastest yougov poll does it both ways (exclude BXP for voters where BXP have stood down AND just display BXP for everyone)

The result where one removes BXP where BXP is not standing gives

CON    42
LAB     28
LDEM  15
BXP      4
Green   4

The one that have BXP everywhere

CON   39
LAB    26
LDM   16
BXP     9

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/w3ohbvr6zt/Sky_TheTimes_VI_191112_w.pdf

By looking at 2016 Leave vs Remain votes it seems most BXP voters when not given BXP as a choice mostly went CON or Other (BXP rebels?).  For 2016 Remain voters by not having BXP as an option actually shifted some LDEM voters over to LAB (tactical voting now that they see BXP is not there to split the CON vote?)

Anyway this poll seems to show that in Southern seats (where CON mostly won in 2017) the BXP voter are mostly CON voters.  I suspect in the North the BXP voter are much more likely to be LAB Leave voters so BXP running there does take LAB votes that would otherwise go back to LAB if BXP is not running.
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« Reply #509 on: November 13, 2019, 04:45:06 pm »

A Northern Ireland Poll appears!



DUP: 28% (-1)
SF: 24% (-1)
ALL: 16% (-5)
SDLP: 14% (+6)
UUP: 9% (=)

Polling taken 30 Oct to Nov 1, before Hermon dropped out
Changes from early August

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Mangez des pommes !
Antonio V
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« Reply #510 on: November 13, 2019, 05:10:17 pm »

Huh, why is the SDLP surging back into relevance all of a sudden?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #511 on: November 13, 2019, 05:12:16 pm »

Sinn Fein are abstentionists, so people feel that's giving the Tories half a seat for free.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #512 on: November 13, 2019, 05:21:06 pm »

Sinn Fein are abstentionists, so people feel that's giving the Tories half a seat for free.

The swings suggest that it's mostly Alliance voters switching to them though.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #513 on: November 13, 2019, 05:21:21 pm »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 05:24:52 pm by Oryxslayer »

Huh, why is the SDLP surging back into relevance all of a sudden?

They are seriously contesting, and potentially likely to win two seats. Foyle has their leader running and its a straight Sinn/SDLP fight there so nobody fears vote splits. South Belfast is kinda a three way, but the DUP are sending out feelers that the seat may already be lost, we just don't know if its going to be to the Alliance or to SDLP. There is also the cross-party endorsements and stand-downs that occurred between the remainers. Contrast this with the UUP who are failing to find good candidates and only really have a shot in F&S and maybe north down if they become the anti-DUP candidate, not the Alliance. But those two are tossups at best, whereas the SLDP's were potentially leaning in their favor before today. Now South Down may even be in the cards.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #514 on: November 13, 2019, 05:35:53 pm »

Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.

The "certain to vote" figure amongst 18-24 year olds was reportedly a completely ridiculous 10%.
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Pericles
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« Reply #515 on: November 13, 2019, 07:09:39 pm »

DaWN what do you see as the realistic best case scenario for the election? It seems to me that since only Labour or the conservatives can realistically form the government, in most constituencies people should vote Labour even if they aren't enthusiastically for Corbyn.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #516 on: November 13, 2019, 07:19:23 pm »

Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.

The "certain to vote" figure amongst 18-24 year olds was reportedly a completely ridiculous 10%.

Interesting. Of course this is a big feature of polling these days - they are no longer social surveys that ask a political question, but an attempt to guess the 'right' result. The polling failure at the last election was to a great extent a result of that: assumptions being made, polls being adjusted accordingly... and those assumptions turning out to be incorrect.

Not that this means we can simply assume the same will happen again and in the exact same way and direction (that's voodoo), but it is something to be eternally aware of.
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Pericles
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« Reply #517 on: November 13, 2019, 08:03:17 pm »

Yeah I think there'll probably be some sort of polling error, but it's very risky to guess what the error would be. Maybe it will be a 2015-style polling error or a 2017-style polling error, or maybe the LibDems or Brexit party are significantly overestimated or underestimated by the polls. Even a regional polling error, if the SNP is overrated by 5% or underrated by 5%, could have a meaningful impact on the results.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #518 on: November 14, 2019, 02:19:11 am »

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #519 on: November 14, 2019, 03:05:55 am »

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.

Yes Dawn is being either woefully wrong about the internal dynamics in the Labour Party or engaging in pearl clutching. There's not a single case of an MP being deselected over being too pro EU & if you think Corbyn has the power to point and deselect ask how Neil Coyle, Ian Murray and the most vitriolic anti-Corbyn MPs sailed through...

There's at least 50 MPs who have rebelled regularly & are actively encouraged and supported by their local party.

There's another 50 who have proved wiling to also rebel against the leadership
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DaWN
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« Reply #520 on: November 14, 2019, 06:48:10 am »
« Edited: November 14, 2019, 06:58:41 am by DaWN »

DaWN what do you see as the realistic best case scenario for the election? It seems to me that since only Labour or the conservatives can realistically form the government, in most constituencies people should vote Labour even if they aren't enthusiastically for Corbyn.

Some kind of Labour-Lib Dem agreement probably. But even that comes with a few caveats
1) I'm not sure Lab+LD on their own reaching a majority counts as realistic and any government with the SNP in it is not a government worth having
2) The Lib Dems have not exactly proven themselves as the sharpest party of them all over the last few days so their ability to actually stop Corbyn doing anything bad is probably limited
3) Let's not forget what happened the last time the Lib Dems went into a coalition... so their ability to actually stop Corbyn doing anything bad is probably limited.

I've been resigned to a bad election outcome for a long time though.

EDIT: It also doesn't mean I think Labour deserves the vote of any Remainer because they don't
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GoTfan
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« Reply #521 on: November 14, 2019, 07:21:22 am »

I think the point is that a lot of Lib Dems at least feel they can get something out of Corbyn, while they can't with anyone else.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #522 on: November 14, 2019, 09:29:20 am »

Conservatives -- party of the working class.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #523 on: November 14, 2019, 09:38:51 am »

Not this **** again.

a) the 'social grade' system was faulty even in the 1970s and is a complete disaster now; it in no way reflects the realities of a service sector economy with a very large elderly population (it is true, by the way, pensioners are routinely rolled into category DE by some polling firms).* I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before. But for now: how many people in Great Britain consider, for example, nursing to be a middle class occupation? I suspect not many. I wonder how many people (in the countryside, where this is relevant) consider farmers to be working class? No one.

b) even were this not so, YouGov's peculiar polling methods happen to make their internal numbers completely worthless anyway. It's some real voodoo nonsense. Rubbish.

c) even were this not so, different polling firms internals show very different figures and patterns, not just from YouGov but from each other. In fact the main thing that shows up when one monitors numbers for these categories over even a short period of time (say, a month) is how absurdly volatile they are. Which is not surprising as they are almost random categories by this point.

d) this actually takes us back to a) because there are serious issues with sampling for some of the categories, particularly C2 which is a notorious disaster.

e) even were all of this not so, poll internals are not polls or surveys themselves, but a way of making sure that the poll was conducted with an appropriately balanced sample. The way they are thrown around by people who know this but have commercial reasons to ignore that fact amounts to the pollution of public discourse.

f) you wouldn't give your bank details to a 'Nigerian Prince', you don't believe anything hawked by Matthew Badwin.

*And there are reasons to be a mildly dubious as to how thorough the ones that say they do not do this actually are.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #524 on: November 14, 2019, 09:49:07 am »

Conservatives -- party of the working class.



It must be all of the economic distress that EU subsidies cause people.
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