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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 53267 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #525 on: November 14, 2019, 09:54:33 am »

Not this **** again.

a) the 'social grade' system was faulty even in the 1970s and is a complete disaster now; it in no way reflects the realities of a service sector economy with a very large elderly population (it is true, by the way, pensioners are routinely rolled into category DE by some polling firms).* I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before. But for now: how many people in Great Britain consider, for example, nursing to be a middle class occupation? I suspect not many. I wonder how many people (in the countryside, where this is relevant) consider farmers to be working class? No one.

b) even were this not so, YouGov's peculiar polling methods happen to make their internal numbers completely worthless anyway. It's some real voodoo nonsense. Rubbish.

c) even were this not so, different polling firms internals show very different figures and patterns, not just from YouGov but from each other. In fact the main thing that shows up when one monitors numbers for these categories over even a short period of time (say, a month) is how absurdly volatile they are. Which is not surprising as they are almost random categories by this point.

d) this actually takes us back to a) because there are serious issues with sampling for some of the categories, particularly C2 which is a notorious disaster.

e) even were all of this not so, poll internals are not polls or surveys themselves, but a way of making sure that the poll was conducted with an appropriately balanced sample. The way they are thrown around by people who know this but have commercial reasons to ignore that fact amounts to the pollution of public discourse.

f) you wouldn't give your bank details to a 'Nigerian Prince', you don't believe anything hawked by Matthew Badwin.

*And there are reasons to be a mildly dubious as to how thorough the ones that say they do not do this actually are.

This is most likely too America-centric but why cannot the polls instead group the population by education (grad school, university, vocational, and high school etc etc)?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #526 on: November 14, 2019, 10:02:02 am »

Not this **** again.

a) the 'social grade' system was faulty even in the 1970s and is a complete disaster now; it in no way reflects the realities of a service sector economy with a very large elderly population (it is true, by the way, pensioners are routinely rolled into category DE by some polling firms).* I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before. But for now: how many people in Great Britain consider, for example, nursing to be a middle class occupation? I suspect not many. I wonder how many people (in the countryside, where this is relevant) consider farmers to be working class? No one.

b) even were this not so, YouGov's peculiar polling methods happen to make their internal numbers completely worthless anyway. It's some real voodoo nonsense. Rubbish.

c) even were this not so, different polling firms internals show very different figures and patterns, not just from YouGov but from each other. In fact the main thing that shows up when one monitors numbers for these categories over even a short period of time (say, a month) is how absurdly volatile they are. Which is not surprising as they are almost random categories by this point.

d) this actually takes us back to a) because there are serious issues with sampling for some of the categories, particularly C2 which is a notorious disaster.

e) even were all of this not so, poll internals are not polls or surveys themselves, but a way of making sure that the poll was conducted with an appropriately balanced sample. The way they are thrown around by people who know this but have commercial reasons to ignore that fact amounts to the pollution of public discourse.

f) you wouldn't give your bank details to a 'Nigerian Prince', you don't believe anything hawked by Matthew Badwin.

*And there are reasons to be a mildly dubious as to how thorough the ones that say they do not do this actually are.

This is most likely too America-centric but why cannot the polls instead group the population by education (grad school, university, vocational, and high school etc etc)?

In the UK educational attainment is at least as horizontal as it is vertical. So private vs public school can be at leaat as or even more meaningful than PhD vs BA or BA vs vocational work. The point is that you would have to weight for different TYPES as well as levels.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #527 on: November 14, 2019, 10:05:09 am »

This is most likely too America-centric but why cannot the polls instead group the population by education (grad school, university, vocational, and high school etc etc)?

They often do, but the huge changes to education policy over the past fifty years and the massive expansion of higher education from the 1990s means that while you're clearly measuring something interesting by doing that, it is no longer that closely related to class.

What they could (and should) do is use occupational breakdowns based on the census categories the ONS use. They don't because of laziness on their part and a certain deranged conservatism on behalf of their clients, many of whom seem to like ABC1C2DE as a sort of comfort blanket.

A couple of firms, I have noticed, ask for income instead: these are mostly newer firms, without legacy clients.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #528 on: November 14, 2019, 11:56:27 am »



Just something interesting I saw, and one of the (many) reasons why there is a lot of potential energy trapped right now waiting to explode and throw polling one one of countless directions.
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Dereich
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« Reply #529 on: November 14, 2019, 12:26:40 pm »

What do people make of Corbyn saying that in a hung parliament he would not agree to a coalition with the SNP (and presumably the Lib Dems) and would force them decide between supporting a Labour minority or the Tories? I'd call it electioneering, but it seems pretty consistent with the Labour position earlier this year around the "national unity government" debate.
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cp
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« Reply #530 on: November 14, 2019, 12:47:48 pm »

What do people make of Corbyn saying that in a hung parliament he would not agree to a coalition with the SNP (and presumably the Lib Dems) and would force them decide between supporting a Labour minority or the Tories? I'd call it electioneering, but it seems pretty consistent with the Labour position earlier this year around the "national unity government" debate.

I think it's his way of rebutting the Tories' charge of 'coalition of chaos' and shoring up Labour's vote in Scotland.

More broadly, *of course* it's electioneering. It's *always* electioneering. It baffles me that people and the media insist on going through this pantomime every time. Every party that's aiming for government will say they won't do a coalition, and every party, when presented with the possibility of taking office in a coalition once the votes are counted, will seek to do so anyway.

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Antonio V
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« Reply #531 on: November 14, 2019, 02:21:33 pm »

I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before.

I vaguely remember you discussing that before, but I don't remember all the details, and I'd be very interested if you'd like to elaborate on it.
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Pericles
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« Reply #532 on: November 14, 2019, 03:54:34 pm »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #533 on: November 14, 2019, 04:03:31 pm »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

Those who dislike him, really dislike him. He's a British version of Trump.
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DaWN
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« Reply #534 on: November 14, 2019, 04:07:07 pm »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

He's very polarising and if he turns up in a marginal (which the party leaders will) then roughly half of the people there hate his guts- out of that half, there's bound to be people willing to yell at him. The same thing will certainly happen to Corbyn and quite possibly some of the lesser leaders as well. It's the way of things, for better or worse (alright, definitely for worse).
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Cassius
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« Reply #535 on: November 14, 2019, 05:53:55 pm »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

He’s the leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, therefore he will be heckled. Happened to May and happened to Cameron. It’s kind of axiomatic for almost any Conservative politician that fifty percent of the electorate will hate you with a wild eyed, broiling passion that lends itself to heckling, whilst most of the remaining fifty percent will be, at best, agnostic in their attitude towards you.
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DaWN
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« Reply #536 on: November 14, 2019, 06:06:37 pm »



In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s. I wish this was fake.
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Nathan
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« Reply #537 on: November 14, 2019, 06:50:27 pm »



In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s.

This actually improves my opinion of Corbyn.

Quote
I wish this was fake.

I don't.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #538 on: November 14, 2019, 07:24:19 pm »

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.

Yes Dawn is being either woefully wrong about the internal dynamics in the Labour Party or engaging in pearl clutching. There's not a single case of an MP being deselected over being too pro EU & if you think Corbyn has the power to point and deselect ask how Neil Coyle, Ian Murray and the most vitriolic anti-Corbyn MPs sailed through...

There's at least 50 MPs who have rebelled regularly & are actively encouraged and supported by their local party.

There's another 50 who have proved wiling to also rebel against the leadership

Coyle's at least didn't really "sail through" - voting was quite close and it is credibly reported that some rather dodgy tactics were employed. Your more general point is valid, though.
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Beezer
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« Reply #539 on: November 15, 2019, 04:03:34 am »

Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.



https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #540 on: November 15, 2019, 04:10:50 am »

Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.



https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/

Jezza is an outstanding campaigner. Corbyn's Labour is perhaps as good at campaigning as the Tories are bad. Somehow "Let's not tax rich people, let's cut ties with our main economic benefactor across the Channel, and maybe America's impeached president will bestow glory on us" is emphatically less aspirational than Labour's promises to build a fair, equal, and prosperous future.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #541 on: November 15, 2019, 05:29:46 am »

According to the Wikipedia article Brexit Party is standing in 267 seats, so not quite the 300 that Farage was promising. UKIP has 43 candidates.
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cp
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« Reply #542 on: November 15, 2019, 06:22:48 am »

Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.



https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/

Jezza is an outstanding campaigner. Corbyn's Labour is perhaps as good at campaigning as the Tories are bad. Somehow "Let's not tax rich people, let's cut ties with our main economic benefactor across the Channel, and maybe America's impeached president will bestow glory on us" is emphatically less aspirational than Labour's promises to build a fair, equal, and prosperous future.

Corbyn's a much better politician than his opponents will ever be willing to admit to themselves, and the Tories' policy proposals have been out of step with most of the country since 2015 (at least), but I'm treating this development with more caution than vindication at the moment.

Yes, Labour is following the basic trajectory they did in 2017, but the Tories are gaining ground, too - something that didn't happen in 2017. The Lib Dems are also polling better than they did 2 years ago and their reasons for jumping to Labour are less obvious than they were then (tactical voting notwithstanding). I'd also note that at least part of the Tories' shifting fortunes in the 2017 campaign was due to the collapse of personal popularity for Theresa May. Johnson isn't anywhere near as popular as May was when she called the 2017 election and his supporters are *much* more devoted than May's ever were; he hasn't got as far to fall and he has a higher floor of support.

We'll see how things play out over the next couple of weeks. The leaders' debates will probably accelerate whatever trends have taken hold by the time they happen.

Also, in yet another installment of me not understanding how politics works, Labour's policy announcement of free broadband (and the nationalization of part of BT to do it) is getting huge  positive media attention and the attacks against it from the Tories and Lib Dems are falling flat. Strange times.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #543 on: November 15, 2019, 06:23:21 am »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
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afleitch
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« Reply #544 on: November 15, 2019, 07:58:26 am »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 08:30:41 am by afleitch »

No polls, but 3 local by-elections in Scotland last night in Dunfermline, Rosyth and Inverness.

Here is the 4 party share in the Scottish by-elections with change on 2017 4 party share. That's the 2017 local elections which took place one month before the GE.

SNP 43.5 (+3.8 )
CON 25.3 (-0.3)
LIB 17.2 (+9.1)
LAB 14.0 (-12.6)

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Ishan
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« Reply #545 on: November 15, 2019, 08:18:19 am »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #546 on: November 15, 2019, 09:26:24 am »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

And opposing Brexit is a brilliant political strategy for any of the opposition parties, and not only because "the will of the people" has so obviously changed.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #547 on: November 15, 2019, 10:11:56 am »



Continued proof that Brexit was just the holding pen for future tories.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #548 on: November 15, 2019, 10:22:21 am »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

Yup. And they’re paying the price for it.

New Blair would throttle this Tory party
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jaichind
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« Reply #549 on: November 15, 2019, 10:28:15 am »



Continued proof that Brexit was just the holding pen for future tories.

I wonder what their methodology is?  Namely did they just ask for party support or excluded BXP as a choice for someone from a seat where BXP is not running.  If former then this result ia significant. If the latter it seems to be a statistical shift as long as we accept that most Southern BXP supports are mostly former CON voters.
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