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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 76491 times)
cp
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« Reply #600 on: November 17, 2019, 06:10:48 am »

I think a Conservative majority of 50 is at the top end of realistic projections here.

I must confess, I'm all over the place how to read the state of play. The polls aren't good for Labour, but they're also not bad, and not really as positive for the Tories as the commentariat portrays them. Labour's policy announcements are going down well and Corbyn's TV appearances have been pretty good, but his rock bottom personal approval numbers seemed baked in. Johnson hasn't had a great week, but his middling/positive personal approval rating seems untouchable; why he isn't as unpopular as Corbyn still baffles me. With 3 1/2 weeks to go, anything from a Labour plurality to a Tory landslide seem possible, but the upshot of most people's analyses is that the Tories have a near-to-full majority locked in.

Meanwhile, I think IPSOS is going to release a poll for Esher & Walton some time soon. My landline just got called for a pretty extensive survey.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #601 on: November 17, 2019, 06:22:30 am »

If the polls look like this on Election Day then Boris clearly wins. However, I think that the margin will most likely be closer and there is a significant possibility of a big Labour surge.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #602 on: November 17, 2019, 07:17:22 am »

I know most of the British posters here are either true red Labour supporters, even with Corbyn as leader, or you may not like Corbyn but your political heart remains true red and you still hope for a Labour victory.

Even so, can you not admit Boris, as a seeming street fighting supporter of Brexit during the referendum vote, may be gaining the votes of a significant number of Labour Leavers because of his strong stand to complete Brexit now when it must be completed or become lost in a hung or Labour controlled Parliament? In 2017 these Labour supporters stuck with Corbyn due to the fact that a actual leave date was two years off, Corbyn seemed to be a Leaver, Corbynís negatives were not as clear, and they may not in the June 2017 been drawn to May, who had been a patrician Tory who had recently been a Remainer?

Is it not possible Boris is successfully making this election into a Brexit election?
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cp
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« Reply #603 on: November 17, 2019, 07:34:01 am »

I don't think that theory is supported by any of the evidence - polling, anecdotal, or otherwise. Most Labour Leavers care more about the NHS/austerity/etc. than they do about the EU, and those that don't are pretty tribal about hating the Tories. Corbyn was attacked in 2017 for being ambivalent about Brexit and had an approval rating pretty much the same as now; there hasn't been much to change those dynamics since.

The idea that this vote is a 'Brexit election' is, and always has been, more of a (Tory) slogan than an analysis. No election is dominated by a single issue. The media spent most of the past week and a half dwelling on candidate selection scandals, and the big policy items discussed have been immigration, Labour's broadband pledge, and the floods in the Northeast. Brexit's being discussed, sure, but it's not the defining issue some would like it to be.
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afleitch
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« Reply #604 on: November 17, 2019, 07:36:31 am »

This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #605 on: November 17, 2019, 08:48:16 am »

I don't think that theory is supported by any of the evidence - polling, anecdotal, or otherwise. Most Labour Leavers care more about the NHS/austerity/etc. than they do about the EU, and those that don't are pretty tribal about hating the Tories. Corbyn was attacked in 2017 for being ambivalent about Brexit and had an approval rating pretty much the same as now; there hasn't been much to change those dynamics since.

The idea that this vote is a 'Brexit election' is, and always has been, more of a (Tory) slogan than an analysis. No election is dominated by a single issue. The media spent most of the past week and a half dwelling on candidate selection scandals, and the big policy items discussed have been immigration, Labour's broadband pledge, and the floods in the Northeast. Brexit's being discussed, sure, but it's not the defining issue some would like it to be.

Sky's coverage of the election is generally OK (and certainly better than the BBC's) but they lose important marks for simply headlining it all as "THE BREXIT ELECTION" - not even a qualifying question mark!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #606 on: November 17, 2019, 08:51:34 am »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 09:13:59 am by Filuwaúrdjan »

One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

Was this Deltapoll? If so, when combined with the obviously odd business of LibDem support dropping by a third in a week and transferring all to the Tories, we can say 'bad sample' and draw a line through it.

Edit: O.K. I've seen their uploaded tables and... this is a bad poll, I'll just leave it at that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #607 on: November 17, 2019, 09:21:14 am »

If the polls look like this on Election Day then Boris clearly wins. However, I think that the margin will most likely be closer and there is a significant possibility of a big Labour surge.

Even ignoring the polls that look... strange... then, yes, if the election was today you'd be shocked at anything other than a majority, the question would be the size of it. But as you say there's a long time to go, essentially a month. Two things to remember in addition to that: firstly, that the campaign has been very low-key so far, and secondly that everyone involved being disliked makes the potential for volatility higher (in all sorts of directions!) than was historically normal.
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Ishan
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« Reply #608 on: November 17, 2019, 09:32:55 am »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing theyíd be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn

Yawn this shows you donít know a lot about British politics.
If Labour ran on a pro-Brexit campaign, they would lose tons of seats and the Lib Dems would definitely have 60 something seats.
The Lib Dems are a Pro-EU party.
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Kyng
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« Reply #609 on: November 17, 2019, 10:14:46 am »

This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.

CON 311, LAB 268? Good grief, I hope that doesn't happen Angry . That probably means that:

1) Boris has a good chance of being able to cling on as PM (depending on what happens with the minor parties, there is the possibility of Corbyn becoming PM by assembling a very weak 'rainbow coalition');
2) Even if Corbyn doesn't get in, he'll probably still be able to stay on as Labour leader, on the basis that the party's number of seats in Parliament went up;
3) Whoever does become Prime Minister is going have a very hard time getting their Brexit plans through Parliament, because the numbers for a Brexit deal simply won't be there.

As someone who can't stand either Corbyn or Boris, and is sick of Brexit deadlock and uncertainty... this outcome sounds to me like the worst of all possible worlds.
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« Reply #610 on: November 17, 2019, 11:09:08 am »

It would be hilarious, in a very dark way.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #611 on: November 17, 2019, 11:11:21 am »

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.
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afleitch
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« Reply #612 on: November 17, 2019, 11:21:02 am »

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #613 on: November 17, 2019, 11:35:43 am »

McDonnell doesn't really want to be leader, and the party would likely want somebody a bit younger.
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jaichind
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« Reply #614 on: November 17, 2019, 11:46:40 am »

One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

Was this Deltapoll? If so, when combined with the obviously odd business of LibDem support dropping by a third in a week and transferring all to the Tories, we can say 'bad sample' and draw a line through it.

Edit: O.K. I've seen their uploaded tables and... this is a bad poll, I'll just leave it at that.

What makes it bad ? Is it because it shows almost a third of 2017 LDEM voters going to CON ?  I agree that looks fishy.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #615 on: November 17, 2019, 12:04:50 pm »

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

Probably some social democrat who isn't too centrist but also doesn't shake the table too much.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #616 on: November 17, 2019, 12:08:16 pm »

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

Not sure if a 'good' depiction of that is something that I'd be able to sit through, but I'll file the recommendation away.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #617 on: November 17, 2019, 12:17:09 pm »

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The fact that Keir Starmer isn't leader is dumb. But for him to not replace Corbyn is simply unthinkable.
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afleitch
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« Reply #618 on: November 17, 2019, 01:08:15 pm »

Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

Not sure if a 'good' depiction of that is something that I'd be able to sit through, but I'll file the recommendation away.

It's gut wrenchingly visceral. And it's because there's a level of respect shown for the town and the victims that it feels that way. I cried.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #619 on: November 17, 2019, 01:56:30 pm »

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The fact that Keir Starmer isn't leader is dumb. But for him to not replace Corbyn is simply unthinkable.

He has been very good on Brexit - whether he has all the needed skills to be leader is another question tho.
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Gary J
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« Reply #620 on: November 17, 2019, 03:06:57 pm »

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The left wing faction, which controls the Labour Party, will want to elect one of its own to replace Corbyn. That means under no circumstances can they permit someone like Keir Starmer to win. The left faction is far more interested in cementing total control of the Labour Party than in winning general elections.

I would not be surprised if someone like the totally obscure and untalented Rebecca Long-Bailey gets elected. We can then look back at Corbyn's leadership as a golden age of able statesmanship.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #621 on: November 17, 2019, 07:43:19 pm »

I am not going to list all the Antisemitism charges against Labour.   There seems to be a new one at least every other day.  Here is a new one.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693489/amp/Labour-Election-candidate-ran-secret-Facebook-group-advises-party-Holocaust-deniers.html?__twitter_impression=true

I do not see how Labour recovers in this atmosphere.  The continuing charges are worse than any of the complaints against the Tories.   I am sure this is why Corbynís satisfaction ratings are so low.
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« Reply #622 on: November 17, 2019, 09:11:50 pm »

G. Elliott Morris is a leftist hack it seems, he looks at a model that shows the range of Tory seats between 326-388 and he says he foresees a hung parliament.

 https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1196199682751565828
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President Pericles
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« Reply #623 on: November 17, 2019, 09:19:21 pm »

G. Elliott Morris is a leftist hack it seems, he looks at a model that shows the range of Tory seats between 326-388 and he says he foresees a hung parliament.

 https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1196199682751565828

It seems like his personal opinion of how things will ultimately turn out, not him saying what the polls show right now (as I said right now a Tory majority is almost inevitable but on December 12 a Tory majority is far from inevitable)
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« Reply #624 on: November 17, 2019, 09:54:33 pm »

That may be true.
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