Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 27, 2020, 04:33:54 pm
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Stuck with Sanders)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34 35 ... 68 Print
Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 71650 times)
CumbrianLeftie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 899
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #725 on: November 20, 2019, 11:57:12 am »

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).

Of course, its much more a comment on how a certain type of political "observer" sees things.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 966
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #726 on: November 20, 2019, 12:04:32 pm »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..
Logged
Estrella
Full Member
***
Posts: 113
Western Sahara


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #727 on: November 20, 2019, 12:57:36 pm »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..


This is the third general election (and fourth major vote, counting the 2016 referendum) in four years. For over three years now, Brexit and its fallout haven't been out of the news. Frankly, I'm surprised more people aren't turned off by politics at this point.
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 899
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #728 on: November 20, 2019, 01:08:47 pm »

And one thing that is notable in this campaign - anecdotal, but agreed by quite a few people of varying persuasions - is how keen many of the public are to talk about literally anything *but* Brexit.

(and just a point about the debate viewing figures - it is now quite a bit easier to view these and other things on social media rather than simply the TV, compared to 2010)
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,163


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #729 on: November 20, 2019, 01:11:45 pm »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 899
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #730 on: November 20, 2019, 01:15:31 pm »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 872
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #731 on: November 20, 2019, 01:46:36 pm »

And one thing that is notable in this campaign - anecdotal, but agreed by quite a few people of varying persuasions - is how keen many of the public are to talk about literally anything *but* Brexit.

(and just a point about the debate viewing figures - it is now quite a bit easier to view these and other things on social media rather than simply the TV, compared to 2010)

A poll today (Ipsos, I reckon) now has the NHS as the most important issue for voters, for the first time topping Brexit. Corbyn's namby-pambyism on Brexit may hurt Labour in core remainer constituencies in central London, but a government will be made out of marginals outside of London, in places where voters want to see Brexit views couched within a broader ideological context involving trade, taxes, nhs, etc. And on those issues Labour is clearly winning the debate so far.
Logged
vileplume
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 268
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #732 on: November 20, 2019, 01:49:17 pm »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?

Because most Lib Dem seats/target seats are 'naturally' Tory leaning. In 2010 the Tory's vote share nationally went up significantly more than the Lib Dem's did and so consequently the Lib Dems made net losses to them. They did gain ground on Labour in many 'metropolitan' seats (e.g. Streatham) but not enough to flip many of them and hence despite 'Cleggmania' they ended up losing a net of 5 seats.

In the opposite way in the Blair landslide of 1997 the Lib Dem's vote share decreased but they gained a net of 26! seats. This was because the Tory's vote share fell by an awful lot more (hence they gained a lot of Tory seats) and as the surging Labour Party still wasn't competitive in most Lib Dem held or target seats (meaning they only lost a couple of seats in that direction).
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,033
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #733 on: November 20, 2019, 01:51:47 pm »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.

“Respectful” but wrong, as Epstein’s name is NOT pronounced that way, which makes it look more like stupid-person failed fake PC pandering. I agree that it’s unlikely it was intended to be anti-Semitic, but Corbyn has justifiably lost the benefit of the doubt on anti-Semitism at this point, so one can hardly blame people for having their hackles up.
Logged
cp
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,141
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #734 on: November 20, 2019, 02:21:18 pm »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.

“Respectful” but wrong, as Epstein’s name is NOT pronounced that way, which makes it look more like stupid-person failed fake PC pandering. I agree that it’s unlikely it was intended to be anti-Semitic, but Corbyn has justifiably lost the benefit of the doubt on anti-Semitism at this point, so one can hardly blame people for having their hackles up.

Problem is, if you try to explain why such hackling might be, in this case, unjustified and even a little silly, it still feeds into the 'Corbyn is an antisemite' discourse and so reinforces that loss of the benefit of the doubt, which in this case is actually pretty unfair to Corbyn.

On the 2010 Lib Dem performance, something I picked up after the fact from people involved is how unprepared the Lib Dems were for the massive surge in their vote mid-campaign. They had no plan for how to expand their map of targeted seats to account for being in first or a three way tie for first. As a result, the party frantically shoveled money/resources into ultimately unwinnable seats, depleting the resources in more marginal ones where they could have won if they had stuck to a consistent plan.
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 90


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #735 on: November 20, 2019, 02:51:09 pm »

One of my friends was an organiser in a marginal Labour lost to the Lib Dems in 2010. When the ballot boxes were opened, initial sampling suggested that they'd done enough to hold on. It wasn't until the postal votes were mixed in that they realised they were in trouble, because those had been returned in the middle of Cleggmania and the Lib Dems far outperformed the score they got on the day.
Logged
DaWN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,028
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #736 on: November 20, 2019, 02:53:04 pm »

It's so hilarious in hindsight there was a 'mania' for that snake oil salesman
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,454
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #737 on: November 20, 2019, 03:12:41 pm »

It's so hilarious in hindsight there was a 'mania' for that snake oil salesman

Alternative Vote and no tuition fees, plus a staunch anti-interventionist stance towards Iraq. Sounds good to me at the time too.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,878
Mexico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #738 on: November 20, 2019, 04:05:14 pm »

Jeremy Corbyn is British. Why would he know how Americans pronounce German surnames? The way we butcher these surnames is specific to the US, similar to how British people have a knack for mangling Spanish words and surnames.  

Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,855
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #739 on: November 20, 2019, 04:41:54 pm »

The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.

I pronounce it "schtein" as a lingering legacy of my German gcse (I also pronounce "Vollkswagen" as "folksvagen" for similar reasons)
Logged
Anomalocaris🌹
wolfentoad66
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,262
Northern Mariana Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #740 on: November 20, 2019, 04:49:49 pm »

I see we’ve reached a new peak of Corbyn Derangement Syndrome.
Logged
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,548
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #741 on: November 20, 2019, 06:36:56 pm »

The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.

Case in point: the most fabled British Epstein, Beatles manager Brian Epstein.  (Which Wikipedia affirms as "stein", even though a lot of casual Yank Beatlemaniacs have tended to default to "steen")
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,878
Mexico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #742 on: November 20, 2019, 07:51:32 pm »

I have to say, it's really not a good look for the media to go after Corbyn for supposedly mispronouncing a name while he was pledging to defend the victims of Epstein's sordid pedophile ring. It's more than a bit anti-Semitic to assume that disdain for a literal pedophile is some sign of an anti-Semitic bent...
Logged
Fremont Speaker Roblox
Roblox
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 591


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #743 on: November 20, 2019, 08:32:41 pm »

Wait, the media is actually ragging on Corbyn for….Mispronouncing a pedophiles name? What the ? Like, are there any actual British voters that would actually think "how dare that socialist bastard Corbyn disrespect the good name of….The guy who ran an international pedo ring…"
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,243


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #744 on: November 20, 2019, 08:47:11 pm »

I think it's just a surprisingly slow news day, all of the discussion boards I follow on the election have been concerned with different minor things.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 872
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #745 on: November 21, 2019, 03:47:38 am »

I have to say, it's really not a good look for the media to go after Corbyn for supposedly mispronouncing a name while he was pledging to defend the victims of Epstein's sordid pedophile ring. It's more than a bit anti-Semitic to assume that disdain for a literal pedophile is some sign of an anti-Semitic bent...

What is more anti-Semitic: obsessing about the Jewish identity of a man who ran an illegal smut ring, or mispronouncing his name?

For what it's worth, Israelis often pronounce the "-stein" differently than Americans, too. "Ayan-sta-yan" can be "Ayan-shteen," for example.

But this obviously has less to do with Jew-phobia than with Jezza-phobia.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,286


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -8.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #746 on: November 21, 2019, 06:16:37 am »

Roundheads v Cavaliers

https://election.unherd.com/

Focal Data doing some election stuff...but for now just views of the monarchy.
Logged
urutzizu
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 672
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #747 on: November 21, 2019, 07:10:30 am »

Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)
Logged
DaWN
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,028
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #748 on: November 21, 2019, 07:32:10 am »

Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

Well it's a good policy of course, but it's also one they know there's zero chance of being implemented, so they can afford to promise things that obviously aren't actually all that practical.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the Lib Dem manifesto. Labour manifesto is uncosted seventies tripe of course but that was hardly unexpected so my reaction is an uninterested 'meh'. The Tory manifesto will be the interesting one to watch; if its really bad again we could be in for an interesting ride.
Logged
Oryxslayer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,243


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #749 on: November 21, 2019, 07:32:55 am »


Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

I mean obvious unicorns are obvious. LDs are never going to be in command of government so they can afford to make outlandish proposals like this. It's the kind of proposal that isn't that thought out, but since everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the timely crisis in Hong Kong, it doesn't hurt to throw unicorns out there and use them to win votes.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34 35 ... 68 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC