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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 78638 times)
c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #750 on: November 21, 2019, 08:03:04 am »

tbf in regards to the costings, an awful lot of the Lib Dem manifesto is a presupposition that the "remain bonus" of 50 billion pounds turns out in reality.

They also want a LVT on commercial land to replace rents. I support that.

Also in regards to the LD policy on further education, I really hate the phrase "skills wallet". Must have focus grouped well, because I've seen them use it a lot.

Classic LD triangulation policy with Trident: they decide not to abolish, not to renew in full, but build three submarines instead of the current four. (In all fairness to them, Labour apparently were musing on an even sillier one a few years back: build the submarines so Barrow workers can do something, but don't build the missiles)

Also they want cannabis legalised. Can't remember if they wanted that last time.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #751 on: November 21, 2019, 08:22:34 am »
« Edited: November 21, 2019, 08:37:16 am by 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 »

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecided Lab 2017 voters + a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)
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jaichind
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« Reply #752 on: November 21, 2019, 08:36:22 am »

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecideds mostly Lab 2017 voters ans a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #753 on: November 21, 2019, 08:39:27 am »

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecideds mostly Lab 2017 voters ans a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

On the  other hand, we don't know if BXT voters would flow to the Tories here if BXT didn't exist. BXT is just the easier pill to swallow, but if forced to choose more may go for the next blue in line.

Also, obvious warnings about the accuracy of constituency polls are obvious.  
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #754 on: November 21, 2019, 08:52:32 am »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #755 on: November 21, 2019, 09:12:17 am »

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

The essential problem with this narrative is that there is no reason to believe that the Brexit Party vote does not = (some of the) people who voted UKIP in 2015 and, well, that really isn't what that pattern looked like.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #756 on: November 21, 2019, 09:19:03 am »
« Edited: November 21, 2019, 09:22:52 am by Oryxslayer »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.
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jaichind
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« Reply #757 on: November 21, 2019, 09:27:11 am »

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

The essential problem with this narrative is that there is no reason to believe that the Brexit Party vote does not = (some of the) people who voted UKIP in 2015 and, well, that really isn't what that pattern looked like.

Sure.  But the 2015 UKIP vote in the North are also made up of pre-2015 pro-Leave LAB voters.  They went back to LAB in 2017 when many like myself thought UKIP would be a gateway drug to CON but it seems that this bunch has a real resistance to voting CON.  So if BXP did not run here I suspect many of them would not vote or vote LAB but not CON.  So my guess is that BXP running in places like this helps CON.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #758 on: November 21, 2019, 09:51:23 am »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isnt Canada. There just isnt enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJPs naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #759 on: November 21, 2019, 10:08:43 am »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isnt Canada. There just isnt enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJPs naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.

Students =/= Youth vote. It was brought up during the debate over the election date that about 75% of students are registered in their home constituency. Universities get their hues more from the staff, long-term researchers, and the surrounding university-serving communities that reflect their clientele's political views. Look more for the constituencies the youth move to after graduation. 
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afleitch
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« Reply #760 on: November 21, 2019, 10:11:46 am »



Some tentative suggestion of tactical voting.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #761 on: November 21, 2019, 10:41:38 am »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?
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SANDSLIDE 2020🌹
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« Reply #762 on: November 21, 2019, 11:04:33 am »

This stuff is just hysterical, man. Is there a single prominent politician in recent memory - in any Democratic country - to inspire this degree of lunacy?


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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #763 on: November 21, 2019, 12:42:00 pm »



Reminder: Not all tactical voters are LD-Tory or LD-Lab voters.
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cp
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« Reply #764 on: November 21, 2019, 01:48:33 pm »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #765 on: November 21, 2019, 01:58:20 pm »

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isnt Canada. There just isnt enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJPs naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.


Students =/= Youth vote. It was brought up during the debate over the election date that about 75% of students are registered in their home constituency. Universities get their hues more from the staff, long-term researchers, and the surrounding university-serving communities that reflect their clientele's political views. Look more for the constituencies the youth move to after graduation. 

Reading and Cambridge would be excellent examples of those sorts of places - thriving service/it oriented job markets that employ lots of graduates
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« Reply #766 on: November 21, 2019, 02:13:53 pm »

Probably won't matter, but as a general observation the social media videos being put out by Labour / Momentum are very well done.
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DaWN
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« Reply #767 on: November 21, 2019, 02:19:58 pm »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.

Definitely won't matter, but as a general observation the social media videos being put out by Labour / Momentum are very well done.

FTFY
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afleitch
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« Reply #768 on: November 21, 2019, 05:14:47 pm »

So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?
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cp
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« Reply #769 on: November 21, 2019, 05:27:53 pm »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #770 on: November 21, 2019, 05:34:24 pm »


Even better: they have Swansea East (!!!!!!!!!) down for that as well. What the actual Christ.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #771 on: November 21, 2019, 05:39:53 pm »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.
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DaWN
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« Reply #772 on: November 21, 2019, 05:43:36 pm »

Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


That's interesting then - perhaps I might have to change my rating then. I suspect there might be a whiff of close but no cigar to it but maybe the tactical voting potential is there. It's obviously very unpredictable though...


Apparently these guys nailed the Canadian election... not sure they'll be repeating that here. My personal favourite is apparently Leeds NW more likely to LD than St Albans.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #773 on: November 21, 2019, 06:25:37 pm »

How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?

You'd think, but some of the earlier ones (at least: can't comment on the more recent ones) were actually only weighted by... um... Euro Election vote? Bizarre stuff.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #774 on: November 21, 2019, 06:37:51 pm »

Reading and Cambridge would be excellent examples of those sorts of places - thriving service/it oriented job markets that employ lots of graduates

Quite so. It also needs to be emphasised that very few constituencies these days are at all uniform; communities like that no longer exist, and constituencies themselves are drawn to hit quotas rather than to represent communities of interest - they are not natural units. Which makes it even less likely that the maths works out. Besides, Occam is usually right.

Of course 'these probably all suck you know' does not mean that they all suck in the same direction. And it is true that, for various long-term grudge reasons relating to the collapse of its traditional economy (i.e. cod fisheries), it is quite likely that 'Brexit' alone is a stronger siren-song in Grimsby than in most places.
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