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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 70876 times)
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #800 on: November 22, 2019, 03:28:15 pm »

Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.
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afleitch
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« Reply #801 on: November 22, 2019, 03:48:16 pm »

Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t); it has (even in the manifesto) But it is good at keeping to core 'Labour' face to face issues and trying to draw the Tories to that fight where they try and fail to match it with populism.

Labour in Scotland is an awkward coalition of unionists, Orangemen, old Lanarkshire grannies and wealthy Edinburgh suburbanites. If it falls back again then yes, UK Labour have nothing to lose because there's nothing left of the Scottish party to try and keep on side. Ideally, if it wasn't for matters of pride and pushback from the Scottish party, some of whom have over the past decade in trying to 'own the Nats' ended up as fellow travellers to the Tories, Labour would stand down in Scotland completely.

So I think a swift agreement with the SNP would happen; that's why the first 'one or two years of a Labour government' is the line; not 'never'.

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parochial boy
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« Reply #802 on: November 22, 2019, 04:07:00 pm »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Also, genuinely amazed that there seem to be absolutely no signs of an impending election anywhere. Like no yard signs, posters, nothing. Itís almost a bit dystopian itís so absent
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DaWN
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« Reply #803 on: November 22, 2019, 04:09:38 pm »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.
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« Reply #804 on: November 22, 2019, 04:21:06 pm »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.
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afleitch
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« Reply #805 on: November 22, 2019, 04:21:09 pm »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

No.

She was terrible; one of the worst TV guttings of any political leader I've seen.
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #806 on: November 22, 2019, 04:23:17 pm »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

No.

She was terrible; one of the worst TV guttings of any political leader I've seen.

You're talking to someone who sincerely thinks the commentariat is biased in favor of Jeremy Corbyn. There's no point in even engaging.
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« Reply #807 on: November 22, 2019, 04:24:56 pm »

Swinson posts live footage of her party walking towards single-digit polling:
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bigic
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« Reply #808 on: November 22, 2019, 04:25:10 pm »

I see this thread is becoming as bad as the Israel thread once was...
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #809 on: November 22, 2019, 04:27:28 pm »

Thank god I'm trying a politics free weekend!
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afleitch
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« Reply #810 on: November 22, 2019, 04:29:45 pm »

Yeah I know I'm an SNP supporter and activist, but I do objectively think

Sturgeon


Corbyn






Boris



























(upside down kangaroo)









Swinson
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #811 on: November 22, 2019, 04:32:45 pm »

I've mentioned elsewhere that the decision to do public questions in urban Sheffield led to a very pro-labour crowd. Nobody except Labour is going to win these votes, except maybe in sheff-Hallam which is a different electorate than the city. Everyone who wasn't Jeremy Corbyn got raked over the coals, it just was less obvious with Sturgeon since they made an effort to get Scots in the crowd. In contrast, Corbyn got soapboxes from the crowd in his favor. If you have already made up your mind, then you are going to see this panel as a biased affair and rally around your candidate of choice.
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DaWN
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« Reply #812 on: November 22, 2019, 04:37:59 pm »

And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #813 on: November 22, 2019, 04:40:52 pm »

And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.

Which it isn't. If the BBC has any bias, it's biased in favor of a competitive race. But that won't stop partisans from rallying around the flag and digging in deeper, because that is always easier if you have made up your mind - it's harder to change.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #814 on: November 22, 2019, 04:42:57 pm »

Getting closer.

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #815 on: November 22, 2019, 05:07:17 pm »

"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.

The food bank figure needs explaining to avoid the kind of wild distortions that ultimately hurt Labour.

The figure is more like three million and that's the number of parcels that were given out. Food bank parcels contain three days of food for emergency situations, which are very frequently, but not always benefit related. You need a note from the Jobcentre or a doctor to get one:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/05/welfare-changes-key-factor-rising-poverty-food-bank-use-study-finds

'Benefit sanctions' is a loss of benefit for breaking the conditions for having them:
https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/benefit-sanctions

Considering I once got sanctioned for going to an agency registration instead of signing on - and had told the JCP what I was doing beforehand, they might be fairly casual in handing them out. I did manage to successfully appeal that one.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #816 on: November 22, 2019, 05:21:34 pm »

fwiw much like QT the BBC would weight the attention; even in Sheffield you are more than capable of finding enough Conservatives, or heaven forbid they could find people sad enough to travel by train.

Besides all it takes is 5-6 people being loutish in the audience to make it appear on TV as if one side is dominant.
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Speaker Thumb21
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« Reply #817 on: November 22, 2019, 05:59:38 pm »

I think that if anyone had a favourable audience, it was probably Sturgeon. She wasn't questioned nearly as strongly as the other leaders. It was a mainly English audience who probably weren't as well informed on her record.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #818 on: November 22, 2019, 06:32:34 pm »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but itís hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. Itís still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, itís also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that ę northern working class left behind Ľ type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks thereís a reason for it of course)
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #819 on: November 22, 2019, 06:52:45 pm »

Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #820 on: November 22, 2019, 08:05:52 pm »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 08:23:22 pm by Coastal Elitist »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but itís hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. Itís still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, itís also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that ę northern working class left behind Ľ type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks thereís a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #821 on: November 23, 2019, 01:20:10 am »

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t);

I should clarify that that's not what I meant by "bullsh*t culture war issues". Basically, the distinction I make is between issues that are about providing symbolic benefits to a constituency vs those that are about material benefits. There are certainly plenty of LGBT-related issues that fall into the latter category (as there are plenty of Brexit-related issues - and Labour's position on the material component of Brexit is indeed excellent all around). There's a difference between those questions and the questions that are mainly around the affirmation of symbols (of which the Scottish independence question is one, because let's face it, the material consequences of it are impossible to assess one way or the other, and even if they weren't, they clearly aren't what's driving support or opposition to independence).
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cp
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« Reply #822 on: November 23, 2019, 04:01:02 am »

Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.

I watched all but Corbyn's bit and I thought Swinson did reasonably well given how hard she was getting hit. The evening was probably still a net negative for her, but I didn't see a moment that was truly irredeemable. Sadly, Johnson also didn't have such a moment, though I think he also came out looking worse overall. The part of his shtick where he babbles/stutters in the lead up to point gets old fast in a setting like this. I also think it makes him look frazzled and unprepared, but that might just be my motivated reasoning at work.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #823 on: November 23, 2019, 06:06:04 am »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but itís hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. Itís still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, itís also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that ę northern working class left behind Ľ type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks thereís a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.

Generally true, but not universally so as the fall out from this one shows Wink
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #824 on: November 23, 2019, 06:17:14 am »

Interesting analysis of the campaign from Conservative Home:

   https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/johnsons-campaign-stops-suggest-cchq-is-not-betting-the-house-on-a-landslide-yet.html

It notes that unlike May, Johnson has weathered both his first debate and the launch of Labourís Manifesto.  If he can weather the launch of his own, he might be set.Ē

It points out he has divided his time between with visits to the West Midlands were there are several Labour marginals and visits to the South West ďto shore up Liberal Democrat facing marginals.Ē  Thus he seems to be ďdividing his attention pretty evenly between defensive and offensive targets.Ē

It concludes the ďkey test of a commander is their ability to adapt on the fly.  With Labour failing their 2017 ignition and Liberal Dem campaign appearing to stall, the Conservative strategists might have to make a decision whether to adopt a more ambitious and aggressive posture.
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