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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 70139 times)
Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #825 on: November 23, 2019, 06:17:57 am »

Getting closer.



It's worth noting that the Tories have kept a decent lead solely by cannibalizing the Leave vote and turning the Brexit Party into dust. The ceiling for the Tories is no higher than the 42% they have here. On the other hand, by squeezing a few seats away from the SNP in Scotland and continuing to eat away at the LibDem (presumably Remain) vote, they can continue to grow as in 2015.

So with a few weeks left the Tories have a nice lead but have no room to grow, and Labour trails but still has a lot of room to grow. Sound familiar? I would still rather be the Conservative Party than Labour with these numbers, but the trajectory of this campaign means that at Tory HQ they'll be white-knuckling it to see how much ground Corbyn the Campy Campaigning Champion makes up between now and the election.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #826 on: November 23, 2019, 06:19:02 am »

It was a strange crowd - at one point Fiona Bruce picked like 7 Scottish nationalists in a row to ask questions to Corbyn about Scotland. So Swinson getting grief from the more local middle class youth was maybe the least surprising thing - but she's not as effective a campaigner and speaker as she thinks she is. I actually though Boris handled his first part terrible mainly because he just couldn't answer their concerns about Russia and then he rallied well. Sturgeon was forgettable. Corbyn was the best, but apart from the antisemitism the questions were all easily replied within the manifesto's confines.


I really hope Swinson's incompetence and radical message on Remain doesn't cost soft Tories who find a potential Johnson Premiership "unbecoming" . Think her general tone will cost potential upset seats like Esher where people otherwise positive about a LiBDem platform see her and think its a joke party again.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #827 on: November 23, 2019, 07:48:06 am »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 08:02:13 am by Arkansas Yankee »

Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    
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DaWN
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« Reply #828 on: November 23, 2019, 07:51:15 am »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #829 on: November 23, 2019, 08:11:11 am »

The Daily Mail website is a pain to use so I might have missed stuff, but this is impressively dishonest stuff. This appears to be a regional poll (of the whole of the North of England and the Midlands!) that shows a swing of 4.5. Which is not substantially different to what national polling suggests at present - actually it is slightly less than the most recent Survation national poll. In order to justify the general tone of the article, they have decided to milk the hell of out selected subsamples, which, as we all know, is serious '...' territory. It is a little disturbing that they have a quote to that effect as well from someone from the polling firm in question; this is the sort of thing that does not help boost confidence in the polling industry.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #830 on: November 23, 2019, 08:50:05 am »

Yougov: 42(0)/30(0)/16(+1)/4(0)/3(-1)   21-22 Nov

Tory Manifesto will be released tomorrow.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #831 on: November 23, 2019, 09:02:23 am »

While I think this piece from the Mail is nothing but A+ level spin, I would push back on the idea that constituency polls are useless. A constituency poll is like throwing a dart at a dart board with limited accuracy in regards to results. You should never expect bulls eyes, but no darts will end up incredibly far from that center. They in essence are data points, which work best with other data points and not standing on their own, just like every other poll ever.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #832 on: November 23, 2019, 09:10:48 am »

Could I just make the point that The. UK. Does. Not. Have. Ridings.

Thanks
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afleitch
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« Reply #833 on: November 23, 2019, 12:52:02 pm »

So there's an expectation of a glut of polls this weekend.

Worth remembering is that all that matters is the direction of travel not the actual individual gaps as such; last weekend saw a widening of the Tory lead after Labour had been closing the gap.

I'm taking a risk here but if Labour don't close the gap even marginally this weekend, it does look difficult for them to 'repeat 2017' which has been the mantra I've heard a lot from activists. The caveat to this is the 'likely to vote' numbers especially for younger voters. They should start to tick up.

But again there's a potential for this to be the election that 2017 'should have been.'
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afleitch
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« Reply #834 on: November 23, 2019, 12:57:48 pm »

And on that front, Opinium have the Tory lead up to 19 points up from 16 points last week.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #835 on: November 23, 2019, 01:17:34 pm »

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.
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afleitch
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« Reply #836 on: November 23, 2019, 01:21:43 pm »

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #837 on: November 23, 2019, 01:26:11 pm »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #838 on: November 23, 2019, 01:28:48 pm »

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.
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afleitch
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« Reply #839 on: November 23, 2019, 01:40:38 pm »

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #840 on: November 23, 2019, 02:07:39 pm »

Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    

Why are you talking about a riding?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #841 on: November 23, 2019, 02:08:53 pm »

That is pretty much what happened in 1964 and 1970 though. Landslides in the elections before that and the incumbent government lost power five years later.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #842 on: November 23, 2019, 02:23:07 pm »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #843 on: November 23, 2019, 02:23:50 pm »

Next of the weekend polls:



There are also three London constituency polls similar to what we saw last week, so I'm going to wait for the Guardian to make their post before talking about them.
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DaWN
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« Reply #844 on: November 23, 2019, 02:34:20 pm »

I think its becoming very clear that the pollsters don't have the tiniest bloody idea of what's going on apart from the fact the Tories are in the lead.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #845 on: November 23, 2019, 02:46:22 pm »

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.
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cp
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« Reply #846 on: November 23, 2019, 03:09:43 pm »

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.

This is basically the idea behind the model I posted a link to a couple weeks back. It's based on previous election performance, the concept of swing, and leader ratings, and predicted a hung parliament with the Tories losing a handful of seats.

For all the sturm and drang of polling hype, there seems to be a few clear patterns: Tories stable in the low/mid 40s, Labour slowly rising. If those trends continue for the next three weeks a hung parliament is more likely than not.
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afleitch
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« Reply #847 on: November 23, 2019, 03:23:08 pm »

Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #848 on: November 23, 2019, 03:33:45 pm »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 03:37:33 pm by Oryxslayer »

Anyway, The Guardian failed to produce nice charts like last time, so here's the three London Constituency Polls I mentioned. Link to the relevant Guardian piece.


Hendon (Barnet):

Con: 51% (+3)
Lab: 33% (-13)
Lib: 12% (+8)
Grn: 1% (-)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 55% / 53%
Lab: 41% / 7%
Lib: 4% / 39%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Cities of London and Westminster:

Con: 39% (-8)
Lib: 33% (+22)
Lab: 26% (-12)
Grn: 1% (-1)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 49% / 42%
Lab: 44% / 5%
Lib: 7% / 51%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Chelsea & Fulham:

Con: 48% (-5)
Lib: 25% (+14)
Lab: 24% (-9)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 57% / 49%
Lib: 7% / 43%
Lab: 35% / 8%

Obvious disclaimer about constituency polls is obvious. Changes are  with the 2017 results.
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bigic
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« Reply #849 on: November 23, 2019, 05:09:25 pm »



That's pretty bad for the Lib Dems, gaining just 2 seats compared to 2017 despite doubling the level of support.
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