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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 71213 times)
Silent Hunter
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« Reply #850 on: November 23, 2019, 05:18:03 pm »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #851 on: November 23, 2019, 05:41:59 pm »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.

Deltapoll: Con 43, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 3, Others Huh. A change from a 15pt lead to a 13pt one on the week.
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Pericles
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« Reply #852 on: November 23, 2019, 05:45:03 pm »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #853 on: November 23, 2019, 05:56:38 pm »

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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #854 on: November 23, 2019, 06:09:04 pm »

Breaking: Wolf Swears he Won't Eat the Sheep This Time
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #855 on: November 23, 2019, 06:11:32 pm »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)

LDs have kinda a weird situation. They always underperform their projected vote, because their voters are on average more likely to be white-collar, educated, politically-attuned, and be at least stable in their situation. This leads to a voter base that if presented with a seat where it is obvious the LDs stand no chance, the LD voter will be more likely to cast a red or blue vote depending on his/her opinions. On the other hand, the LDs will outperform the number of seats they should be getting for said percentage. This is because the LD strategy is to narrow in on targets with a greater propensity to flip orange. This often makes LD swing impossible to calculate since they could potentially have a 'latent' voter base in a seat that will be activated by campaign resources. A LD incumbent in this regard is a powerful resource. I personally have the LDs a lot higher in my current 'excel prediction' than most models, because of these historical trends. Mostly this is because Wealthy West London seems poised to be 'activated' and go into strategic voting mode.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #856 on: November 23, 2019, 06:55:15 pm »

So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.

Deltapoll: Con 43, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 3, Others Huh. A change from a 15pt lead to a 13pt one on the week.

ComRes: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 15, BP 5, SNP 4, Greens 2. A change from an 8pt lead to a 10pt one on the week, but a change from an 11pt one to a 10pt one compared to a poll out midweek.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #857 on: November 23, 2019, 07:32:37 pm »

Anybody who *really* believes the Tories are ahead by 47-28 probably shouldn't be allowed out unattended.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #858 on: November 23, 2019, 07:52:38 pm »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 08:19:38 pm by Lord Halifax »

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.

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jaichind
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« Reply #859 on: November 23, 2019, 07:55:53 pm »

My main concern about this latest batch of polls are that the CON+BXP vote share seems to be dropping from something like 48% to something like 46%.  Any CON gains are mostly from gains from BXP due to real shifts in support or methodological changes to take into account that BXP will only be running in half the seats.  At this stage CON gains are maxed out vis-a-vis BXP and any more gains will have to be from LAB or LIB.  But the recent trends seems to be the other direction.
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Pericles
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« Reply #860 on: November 23, 2019, 08:09:36 pm »

Also remember the LibDems ended this parliament with 20 MPs and brought on this election to try and get more MPs, it would be ironic if (as seems pretty likely) they end up with less MPs than they went in with.
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Lumine
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« Reply #861 on: November 23, 2019, 08:17:28 pm »

I have wonder what kind of result would force Swinson into resigning. Would she be able to stay on if the party barely makes any gains - or even loses seats -? Are we looking at Tim Farron 2: Electric Boogaloo?
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #862 on: November 23, 2019, 08:25:35 pm »

Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.
New scotland poll
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Annatar
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« Reply #863 on: November 23, 2019, 08:54:19 pm »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
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TWTown
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« Reply #864 on: November 23, 2019, 10:50:50 pm »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?
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morgieb
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« Reply #865 on: November 23, 2019, 11:56:41 pm »

I have wonder what kind of result would force Swinson into resigning. Would she be able to stay on if the party barely makes any gains - or even loses seats -? Are we looking at Tim Farron 2: Electric Boogaloo?
If the result remains fairly static from 2017? Then she probably goes. But she is getting a 8% swing or so, which isn't insubstantial.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #866 on: November 24, 2019, 12:09:23 am »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?

Depends on if an increase in turnout disproportionately effects young voters or not. If it does, then most pollsters likely wont be able to see it and will severely overestimate the Tories(this was a problem in 2017).
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Pericles
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« Reply #867 on: November 24, 2019, 12:55:07 am »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?

Perhaps, the EU referendum was the highest turnout vote in decades and like 6% higher turnout than the 2015 election, but that didn't mean Remain did well. On the other hand, the 2017 election was also high turnout by UK standards, and also higher turnout from 2015 and Labour did better than 2015.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #868 on: November 24, 2019, 03:52:52 am »

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.


If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.
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afleitch
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« Reply #869 on: November 24, 2019, 04:19:17 am »

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.


If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.

It's the best result with Panelbase for the SNP in two tears. Tories are back up to 2017 levels in line with the country. A result like that could still see the Tories almost wiped out ot even make gains; it'll depend on local swings.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #870 on: November 24, 2019, 04:28:18 am »

What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?
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Pericles
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« Reply #871 on: November 24, 2019, 04:45:14 am »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 04:50:16 am by Pericles »

Also remember the LibDems ended this parliament with 20 MPs and brought on this election to try and get more MPs, it would be ironic if (as seems pretty likely) they end up with less MPs than they went in with.

This, plus Jo Swinson running a leader focused campaign despite being unappealing to the public and not suitable for such a campaign (and ends up dropping in the polls in that campaign) could mean Swinson ends up being the Theresa May of the 2019 election.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #872 on: November 24, 2019, 05:54:14 am »

My main concern about this latest batch of polls are that the CON+BXP vote share seems to be dropping from something like 48% to something like 46%.  Any CON gains are mostly from gains from BXP due to real shifts in support or methodological changes to take into account that BXP will only be running in half the seats.  At this stage CON gains are maxed out vis-a-vis BXP and any more gains will have to be from LAB or LIB.  But the recent trends seems to be the other direction.

Because it isn't true that every Brexit vote is a Tory vote. It isn't a one-to-one correspondence and Labour will net a small number of Brexit Party voters if and when they come home.

It seems pretty obvious that Labour will almost inevitably spend the next few weeks eating into the Tory polling lead. The question is whether it's a small bite or a Milliband bacon-bite.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #873 on: November 24, 2019, 05:55:29 am »

What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?

The same person who has "turned her back on Labour" on at least four occasions now? And cites AS (of course) but wouldn't vote for the party when it had a Jewish leader??
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #874 on: November 24, 2019, 06:45:55 am »

Ed Miliband was actually pretty friendly to the Palestinian cause - recognition of the State of Palestine was on the Labour manifesto in 2015.
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