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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 78252 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #975 on: November 27, 2019, 05:58:50 pm »







Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.
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cp
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« Reply #976 on: November 27, 2019, 05:59:46 pm »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.


Just so we're all clear, this is a forecast for an election two weeks away based on a poll that's nearly a week old using a model that specifically doesn't account for local campaigns. I'm not saying it's worthless, but it is hardly conclusive.
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DaWN
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« Reply #977 on: November 27, 2019, 06:01:34 pm »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

I'm not going to engage in a big argument over this again as neither of us are going to change our minds, but I really need to make it clear that I don't care whether we get Boris's Hard Brexit or Corbyn's Hard Brexit. They're exactly the same on the only issue that really matters and I don't care which of them wins. Telling me I shouldn't think this way is not going to make me feel any better about the direction of my country so if I can ask politely for everyone to not do it that would be great.
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Lumine
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« Reply #978 on: November 27, 2019, 06:07:25 pm »

Ouch. I do feel sorry for the Lib Dem staffers who will have to work extra hard on those "x party can't win here!" bar charts.
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vileplume
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« Reply #979 on: November 27, 2019, 06:11:11 pm »







Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.

Great maps thanks! Just to let you know Brecon & Radnorshire should be Tory, the Lib Dems are quite a way behind in this model.
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marty
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« Reply #980 on: November 27, 2019, 06:13:21 pm »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #981 on: November 27, 2019, 06:14:07 pm »


Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.

Great maps thanks! Just to let you know Brecon & Radnorshire should be Tory, the Lib Dems are quite a way behind in this model.

That was a value call. Last time, they seriously missed the other By-Election flip in Copeland, saying that it would return rather nicely to it's former owner because the general data is based  off of the  last election. So, if there was a color for 'weird' that would be it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #982 on: November 27, 2019, 06:15:00 pm »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:18:07 pm by Oryxslayer »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. University, remain, the whole shebang. Very different from rest of Kent, which is more  like the East of England politically. Labour picked it up last time slimly, after a near 100 years of tories, a length that was extended by LD/Lab splits in the town center. Frankly, I'm surprised Stroud isn't a Lab hold, since it was  in a slightly similar situation last cycle.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #983 on: November 27, 2019, 06:22:35 pm »

Just so we're all clear, this is a forecast for an election two weeks away based on a poll that's nearly a week old using a model that specifically doesn't account for local campaigns. I'm not saying it's worthless, but it is hardly conclusive.

Sort of. The Interviews were done from the 21st up to and until Yesterday. So part of the data is a week or so old, but much of it is new as well. Agree with your general point though.
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rc18
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« Reply #984 on: November 27, 2019, 06:23:42 pm »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. University, remain, the whole shebang. Very different from rest of Kent, which is more  like the East of England politically. Labour picked it up last time slimly, after a near 100 years of tories, a length that was extended by LD/Lab splits in the town center. Frankly, I'm surprised Stroud isn't a Lab hold, since it was  in a slightly similar situation last cycle.

And it includes Whitstable, becoming a fashionable escape to the country for middle class Londoners.
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vileplume
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« Reply #985 on: November 27, 2019, 06:30:44 pm »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:40:02 pm by vileplume »


Great maps thanks! Just to let you know Brecon & Radnorshire should be Tory, the Lib Dems are quite a way behind in this model.

That was a value call. Last time, they seriously missed the other By-Election flip in Copeland, saying that it would return rather nicely to it's former owner because the general data is based  off of the  last election. So, if there was a color for 'weird' that would be it.

Fair enough except there's quite a few blue seats that I reckon the LDs stand a better chance of winning than Brecon. Firstly they barely won it in a by-election (their forte) in an area of traditional strength, secondly rural celtic fringe areas aren't exactly the kind of areas where they are primarily appealing atm and thirdly the MP isn't exactly inspiring and thus I doubt has anything in the way of a personal following. Brecon has all the hallmarks of a Tory regain IMO.
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vileplume
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« Reply #986 on: November 27, 2019, 06:36:06 pm »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. University, remain, the whole shebang. Very different from rest of Kent, which is more  like the East of England politically. Labour picked it up last time slimly, after a near 100 years of tories, a length that was extended by LD/Lab splits in the town center. Frankly, I'm surprised Stroud isn't a Lab hold, since it was  in a slightly similar situation last cycle.

Funnily enough the Canterbury district did vote narrowly Leave. I imagine Herne Bay (in North Thanet) was emphatically for Leave which just tipped it? Even so I'm still surprised that the Remain vote in the rest of the district didn't outweigh it.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #987 on: November 27, 2019, 06:36:18 pm »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

I'm not going to engage in a big argument over this again as neither of us are going to change our minds, but I really need to make it clear that I don't care whether we get Boris's Hard Brexit or Corbyn's Hard Brexit. They're exactly the same on the only issue that really matters and I don't care which of them wins. Telling me I shouldn't think this way is not going to make me feel any better about the direction of my country so if I can ask politely for everyone to not do it that would be great.

Yes, we all know you're a delusional hack who lives in an alternate reality of his own making. Nobody's trying to make you come to your senses anymore, we know that's not going to happen. I'm not going to stop stating basic facts just because they upset you, though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #988 on: November 27, 2019, 06:50:18 pm »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #989 on: November 27, 2019, 06:54:20 pm »

Having fun messing around with the "Best for Britain" MRP forecast, noticed an absurd prediction for Rhondda: Labour 40%, PC 23%, Conservative 19%.

This would be the best Tory performance in Rhondda since *checks notes* 1923? Maybe such a performance is possible now, given the slow demise of local peculiarities, but it seems to me that we ought not expect to this to happen and that many of these MRP predictions don't pass the smell test. In order for Labour to plunge ~25 percentage points and for the Tories to increase their vote share by 7 percentage points, we'd expect many Labour voters to flip to the Tories in this constituency and there's little indication that this will happen. Also, it's worth emphasizing that this would be the worst Labour performance in Rhondda since, uh, 1910? Anything can happen, I could have sex with the Pope in theory, but anyone who expects this to happen is insane imo.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #990 on: November 27, 2019, 06:58:23 pm »

They are all clearly putting a lot of weight on projected referendum results for each constituency, I think more so than last time. This may well be right, it may well not be.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #991 on: November 27, 2019, 06:59:48 pm »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

Something to keep in mind also: this poll is a snapshot of time and things may move quickly over the next week. If there's a swing back to Labour (or away from Labour), it may not be uniform. Relying on MRP to think about the election is seductive for political geography enthusiasts, we all want to see detailed poll results, but you can use common sense and imagine similar predictions less the absurd outliers that no one should anticipate, even if they excite us on some level. Calm down, use your head folks!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #992 on: November 27, 2019, 07:16:00 pm »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

Something to keep in mind also: this poll is a snapshot of time and things may move quickly over the next week. If there's a swing back to Labour (or away from Labour), it may not be uniform. Relying on MRP to think about the election is seductive for political geography enthusiasts, we all want to see detailed poll results, but you can use common sense and imagine similar predictions less the absurd outliers that no one should anticipate, even if they excite us on some level. Calm down, use your head folks!

The fact YouGov released this model 1 week earlier than the comparative point in 2017 though suggests that they will be seriously updating it a la 538 in the coming weeks. So if there is change, then we will see  it.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #993 on: November 27, 2019, 07:22:02 pm »

YouGov are claiming a national vote share of Con43 Lab32 for this MRP survey. That is actually the same as their latest "regular" poll, strangely enough - and better for the Tories than some others recently.

Bear that in mind before getting *too* excited about certain individual seat claims.

(those shares are also eerily similar to the 1987 result - the first GE that I was fully involved in)
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Many many too many stop and frisks
Nathan
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« Reply #994 on: November 27, 2019, 10:20:11 pm »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. Famous in English song and story for religious reasons but the relevant thing today is that it's a big university constituency.
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Serenity Now
tomm_86
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« Reply #995 on: November 28, 2019, 06:40:40 am »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

This brings to mind the aphorism "All models are wrong, but some are useful." From what I've seen I find this model is useful at painting a picture at what a Conservative victory with a 10 point lead may look like, and for identifying marginals.
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Ishan
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« Reply #996 on: November 28, 2019, 07:00:08 am »

Swinson is as charismatic as my mom.

That's a horrible thing to say about the person who gave you life.
I mean by the fact that my mom is horrible at public speaking, and all that, I love my mom to death.
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afleitch
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« Reply #997 on: November 28, 2019, 07:59:34 am »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #998 on: November 28, 2019, 08:39:07 am »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

This brings to mind the aphorism "All models are wrong, but some are useful." From what I've seen I find this model is useful at painting a picture at what a Conservative victory with a 10 point lead may look like, and for identifying marginals.

Good post. In two weeks time, when the model will likely have been fed more recent data, this model will be very useful at telling us what is going on in about 550 of the seats. Until then, it's just an accurate snapshot in time. 538 does it all the time and nobody is beseeching the heavens like the model is the word of god.

However, once you have entered a variable into the environment, it effects the resident subjects. People who see this model will act upon it. Why, already both Labour and the Lib-Dems are adjusting strategy, and those are just the  most important actors.  
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #999 on: November 28, 2019, 12:31:20 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.
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