United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135830 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #975 on: November 27, 2019, 06:58:23 PM »

They are all clearly putting a lot of weight on projected referendum results for each constituency, I think more so than last time. This may well be right, it may well not be.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #976 on: November 27, 2019, 06:59:48 PM »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

Something to keep in mind also: this poll is a snapshot of time and things may move quickly over the next week. If there's a swing back to Labour (or away from Labour), it may not be uniform. Relying on MRP to think about the election is seductive for political geography enthusiasts, we all want to see detailed poll results, but you can use common sense and imagine similar predictions less the absurd outliers that no one should anticipate, even if they excite us on some level. Calm down, use your head folks!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #977 on: November 27, 2019, 07:16:00 PM »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

Something to keep in mind also: this poll is a snapshot of time and things may move quickly over the next week. If there's a swing back to Labour (or away from Labour), it may not be uniform. Relying on MRP to think about the election is seductive for political geography enthusiasts, we all want to see detailed poll results, but you can use common sense and imagine similar predictions less the absurd outliers that no one should anticipate, even if they excite us on some level. Calm down, use your head folks!

The fact YouGov released this model 1 week earlier than the comparative point in 2017 though suggests that they will be seriously updating it a la 538 in the coming weeks. So if there is change, then we will see  it.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #978 on: November 27, 2019, 07:22:02 PM »

YouGov are claiming a national vote share of Con43 Lab32 for this MRP survey. That is actually the same as their latest "regular" poll, strangely enough - and better for the Tories than some others recently.

Bear that in mind before getting *too* excited about certain individual seat claims.

(those shares are also eerily similar to the 1987 result - the first GE that I was fully involved in)
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« Reply #979 on: November 27, 2019, 10:20:11 PM »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?

Canterbury. Famous in English song and story for religious reasons but the relevant thing today is that it's a big university constituency.
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Serenity Now
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« Reply #980 on: November 28, 2019, 06:40:40 AM »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

This brings to mind the aphorism "All models are wrong, but some are useful." From what I've seen I find this model is useful at painting a picture at what a Conservative victory with a 10 point lead may look like, and for identifying marginals.
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afleitch
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« Reply #981 on: November 28, 2019, 07:59:34 AM »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #982 on: November 28, 2019, 08:39:07 AM »

Remember that all this is is a demographic modelling tool that projects a large national survey down to constituency level. It relies heavily on a series of assumptions, and if any are even a little bit out then the projections will be wildly off. It's clever, but no more inherently accurate than doing a quick swing calculation and checking out the constituency pendulum.

Or, rather... everyone remembers that the model called Canterbury correctly last time. Everyone forgets its projected figures for Finchley & Golders Green...

This brings to mind the aphorism "All models are wrong, but some are useful." From what I've seen I find this model is useful at painting a picture at what a Conservative victory with a 10 point lead may look like, and for identifying marginals.

Good post. In two weeks time, when the model will likely have been fed more recent data, this model will be very useful at telling us what is going on in about 550 of the seats. Until then, it's just an accurate snapshot in time. 538 does it all the time and nobody is beseeching the heavens like the model is the word of god.

However, once you have entered a variable into the environment, it effects the resident subjects. People who see this model will act upon it. Why, already both Labour and the Lib-Dems are adjusting strategy, and those are just the  most important actors.  
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #983 on: November 28, 2019, 12:31:20 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.
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DaWN
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« Reply #984 on: November 28, 2019, 12:39:27 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


The more sensible lesson to draw would be that comparing British and American politics is a pointless and fruitless endeavour.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #985 on: November 28, 2019, 12:53:01 PM »

Why is everyone freaking out over some polls two weeks before the election? Things can swing as much as ten points in two weeks without major news, and no one knows if major news will drop during that time in any case.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #986 on: November 28, 2019, 01:35:45 PM »

Why is everyone freaking out over some polls two weeks before the election? Things can swing as much as ten points in two weeks without major news, and no one knows if major news will drop during that time in any case.

It's a model with over 100K respondents (ginormous compared to normal polls), targeted weights, was accurate in the past, and there is a good sum of money behind the model to ensure  it comes out right. All told, it's very similar to how 538 does their stuff, only it's coming from an inhouse pollster rather than a aggregator. Quite a lot of people trust 538, so you can see how a situation develops.
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Alex
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« Reply #987 on: November 28, 2019, 01:47:38 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


We know, duh

Larry Sanders may still be the PM if he gets his seat
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #988 on: November 28, 2019, 02:04:57 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


We know, duh

Larry Sanders may still be the PM if he gets his seat

*Scrawls on chalkboard*

Here’s how Bernie Larry Sanders can still win. He just needs to persuade the superdelegates MPs that he won the popular vote Oxford East.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #989 on: November 28, 2019, 02:36:07 PM »

I see that my constituency is in the news! I do hope it is for something charming and/or edifying and not...

Oh dear.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #990 on: November 28, 2019, 02:41:55 PM »

Is anyone keeping a running total of candidates suspended by their parties for antisemitism? Anyway, for the first time it has happened to a candidate with a realistic chance of actually winning, the SNP candidate at Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #991 on: November 28, 2019, 02:53:19 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2019, 02:57:08 PM by Oryxslayer »

Anyway there is currently a 'debate' going on about the climate on Channel 4. Boris and farage ducked, and Channel 4 put up Ice sculptures to empty chair them. The problem? Placing the Ice sculptures implies a message rather than an empty chair, and implying a message is a partisan act. It hands BoJo a silver platter case that the debate was a partisan sham to begin with, especially since it looks like they tried to send Gove. I'm sure to the Tory voter it will soon look at this event as a case where they were right to duck. Whatever.

Here's their paper:





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Pericles
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« Reply #992 on: November 28, 2019, 03:00:58 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


Lol. If anything Corbyn was inconsistently left-wing and is hurt far more by being centrist on the issue of Brexit than being left-wing on everything else.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #993 on: November 28, 2019, 03:14:02 PM »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #994 on: November 28, 2019, 03:14:53 PM »



Cheesy Cheesy
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #995 on: November 28, 2019, 03:17:53 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


Lol. If anything Corbyn was inconsistently left-wing and is hurt far more by being centrist on the issue of Brexit than being left-wing on everything else.

Eh, I think calling the market-internationalist liberalism of remain "left wing" is a bit much. Merkel and Macron are the faces of the globalist impulse of Remain, and they are obviously more to the right than to the left. The farther left you go, the more Euro-skeptical you tend to get, for a variety of reasons. It's just that the Social Democratic left in Europe tends not to go as far left as Corbyn so we aren't used to seeing this.
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Pericles
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« Reply #996 on: November 28, 2019, 03:30:16 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


Lol. If anything Corbyn was inconsistently left-wing and is hurt far more by being centrist on the issue of Brexit than being left-wing on everything else.

Eh, I think calling the market-internationalist liberalism of remain "left wing" is a bit much. Merkel and Macron are the faces of the globalist impulse of Remain, and they are obviously more to the right than to the left. The farther left you go, the more Euro-skeptical you tend to get, for a variety of reasons. It's just that the Social Democratic left in Europe tends not to go as far left as Corbyn so we aren't used to seeing this.

I suppose but in Britain Remain vs Leave is pretty much a left vs right divide, most Labour voters voted for Remain and most Conservative voters went for Leave.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #997 on: November 28, 2019, 03:42:05 PM »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?

From the last election.

And I am calling out that Labour figure as too low.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #998 on: November 28, 2019, 03:47:43 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2019, 03:51:23 PM by Oryxslayer »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?

From the last election.

And I am calling out that Labour figure as too low.

I mean Scottish Labour has had a few bad months, and they somewhat backed a Yes vote when their base was previously unionist. In fact, I doubt the unionist parties really lost voters and more the SNP activated their base when compared to 2017, which was an election with low nationalist turnout. Remember, the youth is Yellow up there. On the other hand, their incumbents will benefit from unionist tactical voting, so, who knows what happens.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #999 on: November 28, 2019, 03:57:43 PM »

BBC supposedly has a clip of Gove and the rest of the Tory team turning up for the debate, but then it was the channel 4 dudes who told them they would accept nothing but Boris. This may turn... Trumpy, as Boris now can reorient back to his talking points about People vs Remain Elite/Parliament. *Shudders*
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