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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 76373 times)
DaWN
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« Reply #1000 on: November 28, 2019, 12:39:27 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


The more sensible lesson to draw would be that comparing British and American politics is a pointless and fruitless endeavour.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #1001 on: November 28, 2019, 12:53:01 pm »

Why is everyone freaking out over some polls two weeks before the election? Things can swing as much as ten points in two weeks without major news, and no one knows if major news will drop during that time in any case.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1002 on: November 28, 2019, 01:35:45 pm »

Why is everyone freaking out over some polls two weeks before the election? Things can swing as much as ten points in two weeks without major news, and no one knows if major news will drop during that time in any case.

It's a model with over 100K respondents (ginormous compared to normal polls), targeted weights, was accurate in the past, and there is a good sum of money behind the model to ensure  it comes out right. All told, it's very similar to how 538 does their stuff, only it's coming from an inhouse pollster rather than a aggregator. Quite a lot of people trust 538, so you can see how a situation develops.
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∀lex
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« Reply #1003 on: November 28, 2019, 01:47:38 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


We know, duh

Larry Sanders may still be the PM if he gets his seat
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Fubart Solman 🥀
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« Reply #1004 on: November 28, 2019, 02:04:57 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


We know, duh

Larry Sanders may still be the PM if he gets his seat

*Scrawls on chalkboard*

Here’s how Bernie Larry Sanders can still win. He just needs to persuade the superdelegates MPs that he won the popular vote Oxford East.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1005 on: November 28, 2019, 02:36:07 pm »

I see that my constituency is in the news! I do hope it is for something charming and/or edifying and not...

Oh dear.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1006 on: November 28, 2019, 02:41:55 pm »

Is anyone keeping a running total of candidates suspended by their parties for antisemitism? Anyway, for the first time it has happened to a candidate with a realistic chance of actually winning, the SNP candidate at Kirkaldy & Cowdenbeath.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1007 on: November 28, 2019, 02:53:19 pm »
« Edited: November 28, 2019, 02:57:08 pm by Oryxslayer »

Anyway there is currently a 'debate' going on about the climate on Channel 4. Boris and farage ducked, and Channel 4 put up Ice sculptures to empty chair them. The problem? Placing the Ice sculptures implies a message rather than an empty chair, and implying a message is a partisan act. It hands BoJo a silver platter case that the debate was a partisan sham to begin with, especially since it looks like they tried to send Gove. I'm sure to the Tory voter it will soon look at this event as a case where they were right to duck. Whatever.

Here's their paper:





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President Pericles
Pericles
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« Reply #1008 on: November 28, 2019, 03:00:58 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


Lol. If anything Corbyn was inconsistently left-wing and is hurt far more by being centrist on the issue of Brexit than being left-wing on everything else.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1009 on: November 28, 2019, 03:14:02 pm »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1010 on: November 28, 2019, 03:14:53 pm »



Cheesy Cheesy
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1011 on: November 28, 2019, 03:17:53 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


Lol. If anything Corbyn was inconsistently left-wing and is hurt far more by being centrist on the issue of Brexit than being left-wing on everything else.

Eh, I think calling the market-internationalist liberalism of remain "left wing" is a bit much. Merkel and Macron are the faces of the globalist impulse of Remain, and they are obviously more to the right than to the left. The farther left you go, the more Euro-skeptical you tend to get, for a variety of reasons. It's just that the Social Democratic left in Europe tends not to go as far left as Corbyn so we aren't used to seeing this.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1012 on: November 28, 2019, 03:30:16 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


Lol. If anything Corbyn was inconsistently left-wing and is hurt far more by being centrist on the issue of Brexit than being left-wing on everything else.

Eh, I think calling the market-internationalist liberalism of remain "left wing" is a bit much. Merkel and Macron are the faces of the globalist impulse of Remain, and they are obviously more to the right than to the left. The farther left you go, the more Euro-skeptical you tend to get, for a variety of reasons. It's just that the Social Democratic left in Europe tends not to go as far left as Corbyn so we aren't used to seeing this.

I suppose but in Britain Remain vs Leave is pretty much a left vs right divide, most Labour voters voted for Remain and most Conservative voters went for Leave.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1013 on: November 28, 2019, 03:42:05 pm »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?

From the last election.

And I am calling out that Labour figure as too low.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1014 on: November 28, 2019, 03:47:43 pm »
« Edited: November 28, 2019, 03:51:23 pm by Oryxslayer »

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?

From the last election.

And I am calling out that Labour figure as too low.

I mean Scottish Labour has had a few bad months, and they somewhat backed a Yes vote when their base was previously unionist. In fact, I doubt the unionist parties really lost voters and more the SNP activated their base when compared to 2017, which was an election with low nationalist turnout. Remember, the youth is Yellow up there. On the other hand, their incumbents will benefit from unionist tactical voting, so, who knows what happens.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1015 on: November 28, 2019, 03:57:43 pm »

BBC supposedly has a clip of Gove and the rest of the Tory team turning up for the debate, but then it was the channel 4 dudes who told them they would accept nothing but Boris. This may turn... Trumpy, as Boris now can reorient back to his talking points about People vs Remain Elite/Parliament. *Shudders*
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1016 on: November 28, 2019, 04:05:12 pm »

So the Tories are threatening to use the tools of government to enact retribution against unsympathetic news outlets. Very cool stuff.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1017 on: November 28, 2019, 04:54:51 pm »

So the Tories are threatening to use the tools of government to enact retribution against unsympathetic news outlets. Very cool stuff.

Oh we're here now. It's arrived.

i had hope the UK would escape it, but there we are.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1018 on: November 28, 2019, 05:36:29 pm »

BBC supposedly has a clip of Gove and the rest of the Tory team turning up for the debate, but then it was the channel 4 dudes who told them they would accept nothing but Boris. This may turn... Trumpy, as Boris now can reorient back to his talking points about People vs Remain Elite/Parliament. *Shudders*

Well the Tories were told days ago it was BOJO or no-one; so sending Gove was a stunt.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1019 on: November 28, 2019, 06:08:21 pm »

Channel 4 is a public entity just like the BBC with a duty to be impartial, and the government can amend its constitution as it sees fit. The BBC would not pull a silly stunt such as this. It is frankly odd that Gove would be considered unacceptable to represent the Tories in a debate on the climate, given that he has handled issues relating to that for the past two years and thus is probably the best briefed person within the party for that role - unless of course, like all the other debates, it’s simply a Potemkin debate not meant to address the issues in a serious way.

Nobody watches Channel 4 anyway.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1020 on: November 28, 2019, 06:23:41 pm »

Jesus F**king Christ, what a disgusting post. I didn't realize what a craven sycophant you were.


Channel 4 is a public entity just like the BBC with a duty to be impartial

Which it was. It set out an impartial rule about which party figures were invited to attend and which weren't, and reacted impartially to the figures that chosen not to attend.


Quote
and the government can amend its constitution as it sees fit.

Really, dude? Really? I'm sure you would totally be saying that if PM Corbyn was proposing the same thing. Roll Eyes


Quote
The BBC would not pull a silly stunt such as this.

Good. Then people who dislike such "silly stunt" are free to watch the BBC instead.


Quote
It is frankly odd that Gove would be considered unacceptable to represent the Tories in a debate on the climate, given that he has handled issues relating to that for the past two years and thus is probably the best briefed person within the party for that role

If the rule is "party leaders only" then it's "party leaders only". If Corbyn is going to show up, there's no reason BoJo can't, regardless of anyone else's real or supposed qualifications.


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- unless of course, like all the other debates, it’s simply a Potemkin debate not meant to address the issues in a serious way.

Irrelevant to the argument.


Quote
Nobody watches Channel 4 anyway.

Well then I guess political tampering into news channels is totally fine as long as they're smaller channels Smiley
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adma
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« Reply #1021 on: November 28, 2019, 06:36:28 pm »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


Lol. If anything Corbyn was inconsistently left-wing and is hurt far more by being centrist on the issue of Brexit than being left-wing on everything else.

And besides, when it comes to left-of-the-party odd ducks, Corbyn's more comparable to Dennis Kucinich than to Bernie.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1022 on: November 28, 2019, 06:46:02 pm »

I mean, I’ve spent a lot of my life having to lick boots of one variety or another, so sycophancy has always become me.

Were I running the Tory campaign, I would have ignored it. In the grand scheme of things it’s bloody Channel 4, nobody watches it aside from Peep Show fans (not a particularly Tory friendly demographic I would’ve thought) waiting for an ageing Mitchell and Webb to roll in for series 168 of them pretending to still be 30 year olds. Making a fuss like this just creates another irritant for the press to rub into the Tory campaign.

Nonetheless, the fact is, the government, whether it be a Tory government or a Labour government, is entitled to set the parameters for Channel 4. There are plenty of other places for liberals and the left to go and get their kicks (the Guardian, the Independent, the New Statesman, that constellation of dubious “independent” media sites like Novara and many, many more). Were the Tories to clamp down on Channel 4’s ability to pose at ‘telling truth to power’ (retch), I find it highly unlikely that it would be the prelude to Gleichschaltung 2 Electric Boogaloo.

If Channel 4 were interested in running a serious debate on the environment, I doubt they would set it up as a debate between seven people with only an hour (about eight and a half minutes of speaking time per person!) for running time, which is what they did. Johnson was right to treat it with the contempt it deserved and was fairly generous in sending along Gove to participate at all.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1023 on: November 28, 2019, 06:52:02 pm »

The impartiality of state media is premised on governments' commitments not to tamper with their content for political purposes. I'm genuinely baffled that I have to explain that to you. The fact that your only retorts are "well, they legally can do that" and "well, it's no big deal, there are other news sources" shows that you either know that and are being intellectually dishonest, or legitimately just don't value the idea of having state news outlets that aren't beholden to the government of the day. Which, fine, I guess, but just be open about it.
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« Reply #1024 on: November 28, 2019, 06:53:56 pm »

So the Tories are threatening to use the tools of government to enact retribution against unsympathetic news outlets. Very cool stuff.

And yet the media has overall given Johnson much better coverage than Corbyn.
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