United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135839 times)
Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1050 on: December 01, 2019, 10:03:32 AM »

Wtf is Labour sending Richard Burgon to a tv-debate? Do they want to lose? If this was sports you'd suspect matchfixing.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1051 on: December 01, 2019, 10:24:33 AM »

Well, thinking (and I mean *thinking*) about it, maybe it has been judged his legal background might help given how Friday's horrible events are likely to take up a significant part of the discussion?

But yeah, its a bit of a strange one alright.....
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DaWN
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« Reply #1052 on: December 01, 2019, 10:43:04 AM »

Richard Burgon is the perfect representation of today's Labour Party, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1053 on: December 01, 2019, 10:44:09 AM »

In the judgement of people like you despise it, yes.

Not anyone else.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1054 on: December 01, 2019, 02:28:24 PM »

‘Jeremy will be an honest broker, not a stockbroker like Nigel’.

Ho ho... ho.

Laughter came there none.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1055 on: December 01, 2019, 03:43:30 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2019, 03:49:39 PM by Oryxslayer »

I made my ten days out, long-spelled-out prediction in the other thread.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1056 on: December 01, 2019, 03:50:07 PM »

The Lib Dems have actually been fairly stable for the last two weeks or so at 15% or a few points south of that - I think the Labour increase might be more due to undecideds and possible a few soft Tories swinging their way. Whether that will be enough for 2017-redux who's to say. Mostly this time I think the Lib Dems do have a higher floor than last time though because of Brexit, and it looks like they might have reached it. 'Might' definitely being the operative word there.

A quick thought on the polling atm (from the general discussion thread)
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cp
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« Reply #1057 on: December 01, 2019, 04:11:51 PM »

The Lib Dems have actually been fairly stable for the last two weeks or so at 15% or a few points south of that - I think the Labour increase might be more due to undecideds and possible a few soft Tories swinging their way. Whether that will be enough for 2017-redux who's to say. Mostly this time I think the Lib Dems do have a higher floor than last time though because of Brexit, and it looks like they might have reached it. 'Might' definitely being the operative word there.

A quick thought on the polling atm (from the general discussion thread)

I'm not sure the top line numbers are the best way to read the crucial dynamics at work. Lib Dem fade over the past few weeks might have been remainy types switching to Labour OR it could be dissatisfied red Tories getting scared of Corbyn and boosting the Tories. Similarly, Labour's slower rise compared with 2017 could be because they're picking up remainy votes in the south but losing leavey votes in the north - some of the local polling would seem to corroborate that.

Something worth keeping in mind whatever the case: there are a *lot* of wavering Lib Dem/Labour voters, and a relatively large number of true undecideds. Depending on how they shift by next Thursday, the Tory lead could be double digits or completely gone.
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cp
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« Reply #1058 on: December 01, 2019, 05:21:49 PM »

Bit of random fun/observation: In a fit of masochism I decided to look up the forum thread from the 2017 election, focusing on the last 10 days before the vote, to see what useful trends I might be able to discern in the debate/commentary people had. Here's what I found ...

1. Everyone agreed May had run the worst campaign in living memory, but a good few people were still bleating about her being a 'strong' leader. A true testament to the power of cognitive dissonance.

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

3. The YouGov poll that projected a Tory minority was very much an outlier and not taken very seriously by anyone posting. Even when a couple of other polls published subsequently (YouGov came out about a week before polling day) showed the Tory lead down to single digits - and, in one case, a -1 to Labour - most people dismissed them.

4. Relatedly, if there was an overall tone to the final days of the 2017 race's commentary on here it could be summed up as "The Tories really stepped in it, but they're still going to win a majority." I couldn't find a single prediction that didn't have the Tories winning 330+ seats.

5. There was a much greater number of different posters contributing to the thread at the time. This was not to the thread's benefit.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1059 on: December 01, 2019, 05:23:39 PM »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1060 on: December 01, 2019, 05:42:43 PM »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁

Number 2 and number 5 seem to go hand in hand. The forum back then was more unruly, banning Krazen was arguably the turning point when things became more civil, even though he likely didn't post in that thread.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1061 on: December 01, 2019, 07:59:16 PM »

The Survation Poll dropped-



Note: The time in the field is incorrect. It should be the 26th to the 30th instead of the 29th to the 30th.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1062 on: December 01, 2019, 10:45:12 PM »

CON: 39% (-2)
LAB: 33% (+5)
LDEM: 13% (-5)
GRN: 5% (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
via
@BMGResearch
, 27 - 29 Nov
Chgs. w/ 21 Nov


from westminster

Sorry for lack of tweet or if it's been posted already

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cp
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« Reply #1063 on: December 02, 2019, 02:38:30 AM »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁

Lol. Your Corbyn Derangement Syndrome exhibits relatively mild symptoms compared to the terminal cases from 2017. Tongue

In all seriousness, the 2017 thread was *way* heavier on the 'Corbyn is a terrorist' angle. This year the collective wisdom centres on something more like 'Corbyn is incompetent/a Brexiter/shifty'.

With regards to the polls published tonight, they obviously show Labour closing the gap. Maybe more importantly, they're showing the Tories stagnant and hitting their ceiling. Taking the margin of error into account, it's conceivable the BMG and Survation polls are actually showing the same thing (herding?).

At the risk of belabouring this gimmick: compared with 2017, these polls have Labour *and* the Tories about 3-5 points shy of where they were 10 days out. The only difference, really, is how well the Lib Dems and Brexit Party are doing. Depending on which votes these two smaller parties siphon from the main parties - and where they do it - the seat totals could vary enormously.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1064 on: December 02, 2019, 05:29:40 AM »

The Survation Poll dropped-



Note: The time in the field is incorrect. It should be the 26th to the 30th instead of the 29th to the 30th.

It seems pretty clear that if Labour can bite into the LibDems as much as the Tories bit into the Brexit Party then it's a draw. I doubt that will happen, but even nicking another four or five points should be enough to prevent a Tory majority.
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adma
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« Reply #1065 on: December 02, 2019, 06:23:12 AM »

In all seriousness, the 2017 thread was *way* heavier on the 'Corbyn is a terrorist' angle. This year the collective wisdom centres on something more like 'Corbyn is incompetent/a Brexiter/shifty'.

*And* an anti-Semite.  (Maybe not so much in *this* thread, but...)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1066 on: December 02, 2019, 09:52:41 AM »



Don't think we have ICM here yet. They are one of the higher-rollers  on Labour, which is fine. Like I always say, look to the modelling trackers. It's dangerous if we don't have outliers for the models because that leads to herding.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1067 on: December 02, 2019, 10:00:08 AM »

Labour pick up a few more points from the LibDems/Greens, and its real "squeaky bum time".......
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1068 on: December 02, 2019, 10:21:37 AM »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.
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The Free North
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« Reply #1069 on: December 02, 2019, 10:44:20 AM »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.

Perhaps Johnson will be able to stand his ground better than May, but if indeed we do get another hung parliament and Labour can't form some sort of coalition to secure power we're right back to where we were before and the Brexit demons continue to haunt the country.

I guess thats Johnson's argument really, but it doesn't paint a great picture to the electorate: "vote for me or else we're going to be trapped in perpetual gridlock"
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1070 on: December 02, 2019, 10:51:12 AM »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.

Perhaps Johnson will be able to stand his ground better than May, but if indeed we do get another hung parliament and Labour can't form some sort of coalition to secure power we're right back to where we were before and the Brexit demons continue to haunt the country.

I guess thats Johnson's argument really, but it doesn't paint a great picture to the electorate: "vote for me or else we're going to be trapped in perpetual gridlock"


Yup, though Johnson seems to have "cleaned" his parlamentary faction by throwing out skeptics of his course or Brexit in general. I suppose all Tories running with a shot a winning their district are Brexiteers.
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cp
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« Reply #1071 on: December 02, 2019, 11:05:13 AM »

With Labor gaining, it looks like this could end up as some sort of 2017 redux, where conservative PM calls for new elections in light of strong polling numbers, but then ends up with a bare victory and another hung parliament as leftwing voters come home to Labor.

From your keyboard to God's ears.

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Beezer
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« Reply #1072 on: December 02, 2019, 01:16:16 PM »

The Tories' polling numbers weren't that great when Johnson called the election, however, and while there has been a tightening of the polls, the Tory lead is still around 2-3 points larger than at the same point in 2017.
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cp
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« Reply #1073 on: December 02, 2019, 02:14:47 PM »

The Tories' polling numbers weren't that great when Johnson called the election, however, and while there has been a tightening of the polls, the Tory lead is still around 2-3 points larger than at the same point in 2017.

Well, they were hovering in the mid to high 30s had a 10-15 point lead by most measures. It's not the heights they had during May's pre-2017 honeymoon, but pretty good overall.

The Tory lead is definitely a few points shy of this point in 2017, but I think that has more to do with stickier Lib Dem votes than a more successful Tory (or less successful Labour) campaign thus far.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1074 on: December 02, 2019, 02:27:29 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 02:38:49 PM by Pericles »

Tbh it does seem that the Tories have run a better campaign than May in 2017 (pretty easy to do) and Labour so far has run a bit of a worse campaign than in 2017. 'Get Brexit Done' is super dumb but also effective. The leadership ratings are weird, Johnson seems to be slightly more unpopular than May was even at the end of the campaign, but Corbyn hasn't so far had much of a surge in his leadership ratings and is still deeply unpopular. Boris's leads in preferred Prime Minister ratings so far are slightly higher than May's lead in those ratings at the end of the 2017 campaign but maybe slightly lower than May's ratings at this point in the campaign. Perhaps those who hate both Corbyn and Boris will go to Labour, but it doesn't look good for Labour (yet) here. Of course we'll have to wait until the end of the campaign to get a full picture, but so far the Tories do seem on track for victory.
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