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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 71738 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1175 on: December 04, 2019, 06:22:42 pm »
« edited: December 04, 2019, 06:48:50 pm by CumbrianLeftie »

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work?? Huh

The total adds up to only 90% which is far too low.

It also shows the SNP up 1, and "Others" up by 4(!)

Supposedly this is the product of showing people a "full choice" of options.

But in many seats "others" are not standing at all, and in lots of places where they do they will poll derisory votes. It genuinely makes little sense at all.....
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hummus_con_pita
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« Reply #1176 on: December 04, 2019, 06:25:09 pm »

How are y'all's takes on the East Devon race?

Seems rather odd that LDs fielded a candidate here...
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DaWN
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« Reply #1177 on: December 04, 2019, 06:33:39 pm »
« Edited: December 04, 2019, 06:38:06 pm by DaWN »

How are y'all's takes on the East Devon race?

Seems rather odd that LDs fielded a candidate here...

With Swire retiring, it'll be a comfortable Con hold. Much of the vote last time was against him rather than for her. I imagine she'll take second again though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1178 on: December 04, 2019, 06:36:10 pm »

Supposedly this is the product of showing people a "full choice" of options.

But in many seats "others" are not standing at all, and in many places where they do they will poll derisory votes. It genuinely makes little sense at all.....

Excellent example of why it's best to view the British polling industry with general contempt and to take its findings (any of them) with a degree of caution. Making a major methodological change with a week to go... Christ.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1179 on: December 04, 2019, 06:48:24 pm »

I'm not sure what Dennis Skinner is actually like as a constituency MP in all fairness.

Old fashioned. Not ineffectual (he's done quite a bit of good for it), but not the the sort to open every fête, kiss every baby and to write angry letters about every pothole and dog turd. Though the big mystery there is whether the 2017 figures represent the actual starting point or not - the situation there last time (with the constituency being intensively and intensely targeted on the one hand and with the CLP turning out not to have canvassing data etc. on the other) was rather unusual.
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Ishan
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« Reply #1180 on: December 04, 2019, 09:02:25 pm »

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?
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rc18
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« Reply #1181 on: December 04, 2019, 09:05:47 pm »

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

The ship is lost with all hands.
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Intell
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« Reply #1182 on: December 04, 2019, 11:15:21 pm »



Solid 26% of antisemtitic jews there. That number will be much lower this election probably.

58% Conservative
11% Labour
27% Libdems
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PSOL
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« Reply #1183 on: December 04, 2019, 11:49:50 pm »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?
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Intell
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« Reply #1184 on: December 04, 2019, 11:58:08 pm »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1185 on: December 04, 2019, 11:58:28 pm »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?
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DL
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« Reply #1186 on: December 05, 2019, 12:58:53 am »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

Up until very recently Jews tended to vote Labour and remember that the previous Labour leader Ed Miliband was Jewish.

What about the political preferences of the largest group of all - those with no religion?
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Nathan
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« Reply #1187 on: December 05, 2019, 01:10:44 am »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc either a large minority or an outright plurality of practicing Catholics in Great Britain today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish. They'd thus be doubly inclined against Brexit and shopkeeper-caste English nationalism.
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rc18
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« Reply #1188 on: December 05, 2019, 01:13:54 am »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 01:23:06 am by rc18 »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc a plurality of practicing Catholics in England today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish.

Though of course most Poles etc in the UK do not have British citizenship and so cannot vote in a GE. Assuming the BES study is of GE voters it is mostly going to be Catholics of Irish descent.

As for no religion, that's related to age so the non-religious were more Labour in 2017.

http://www.brin.ac.uk/religious-affiliation-and-party-choice-at-the-2017-general-election/
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1189 on: December 05, 2019, 01:43:57 am »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

Liverpool and Glasgow are probably the most "Irish" cities in Great Britain (by descent - London got most of the 20th century immigrants).
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1190 on: December 05, 2019, 01:46:11 am »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.
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Intell
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« Reply #1191 on: December 05, 2019, 02:31:16 am »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

I also think SDP and Lib Dem got a high vote amongst jews in 83/87/92, surpassing even the Labour Party in preference in 83 and 87.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1192 on: December 05, 2019, 03:02:04 am »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

A lot of it is geographical.  Northwest region of England, particularly Liverpool has the largest Catholic and also London is somewhat higher and those areas tend to go Labour.

When I would be interested is how Hindus are leaning?  BME lean heavily Labour, but I've heard Tories do reasonably well amongst Hindus and looking at Muslim numbers that would suggest Labour is ahead amongst Hindus, but a lot more competitive.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1193 on: December 05, 2019, 04:27:53 am »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

Thinking about them as a single demographic was probably somewhat misleading historically and may still be to an extent.

The largest Jewish communities in Britain have always been in London (there are a couple of wards in Bury and Salford where the Jewish vote is significant, but even there it's not massive and after that the next biggest community is probably Gateshead, where it's never been electorally significant.) In London the Jewish vote was historically most notable in inner east London, where it was very working-class and very Labour (or Communist, way back when.) As is the case with all the other communities in inner east London, their grandchildren and great-grandchildren are these days more likely to live on the fringes of London or in the commuter belt and they're much more middle-class and accordingly rather less Labour.

The north London Jewish communities are rather more middle-class and much more concentrated (although there too there has been dispersal of the community, especially to Hertfordshire.) Historically they were always relatively Tory, but have been very much more so in recent decades (though probably not significantly more than non-Jews in similar demographic circumstances.)

Then you've got the Haredi communities (generally more interested in local than national politics) and small numbers of Jews scattered across the country (who are somewhat understudied and may or may not perceive their Jewishness in the same way as residents of, say, Finchley.)

A lot of the shift in support up until 2010 and possibly 2015 is probably best explained by the shift in the demographic make-up of the Jewish community/communities. Studies suggest we lost a lot of support under Miliband (caveat: polling of particular communities tends to be bad even by the standards of British polling) and this has often been linked to Labour's recognition of Palestine - whether this is true, or whether the Jewish voters most exercised by that are also the most likely to have been swinging away from Labour anyway is perhaps still an open question. Since 2015 support has dropped, but the change has been as much qualitative as quantitative - there is a significant difference between people not voting Labour and believing that Labour actively hates them.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1194 on: December 05, 2019, 04:46:04 am »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 04:55:47 am by urutzizu »

When I would be interested is how Hindus are leaning?  BME lean heavily Labour, but I've heard Tories do reasonably well amongst Hindus and looking at Muslim numbers that would suggest Labour is ahead amongst Hindus, but a lot more competitive.

Labours relationship with the Hindu community has gone quite bad recently. Hindus (and Sikhs) are considerably more affluent then other minorities which already during Camerons times made them significantly more competitive for the Conservatives, but recently there has been escalating row after Labour Conference in the Summer passed a motion that condemned Indias treatment of Kashmir. The Indian Government attacked Labour for that and since then the overseas BJP have been meddling in the election by trying to get the Diaspora to vote Tory. Labour later had to u-turn on that. After the Chief Rabbi statement, the Hindu Council of Britain supported him, and went even further accusing Labour of being a "anti-Hindu party". There was also controversy due to accusations of Labour refusing to field Indian Candidates. Stockport was the only open Labour seat where there is one running, and in Keith Vaz Seat, Leicester East one of the Seats with the Highest Indian population in the Country, a shortlisted Indian Candidate was allegedly dropped and a different one imposed from the Leadership.
The Tories on the other Hand have with People like Priti Patel strongly pushed a message trying to appeal to that community, and people like Bob Blackman in Harrow have basically been touting the BJP line.

Of course important to keep in mind the vast majority of British Hindus do not care much about Kashmir or anything like that when Voting, and Issues like Brexit is going to likely be far more important for them. According to Polling British Indians split about 60-40 for Remain in the Referendum with Higher Leave support among Sikhs than Hindus. So presumably there is not that much ground for the Conservatives to gain. The Lib Dems could certainly do well among many of the Suburban London Entrepreneur/Doctor kind of Hindus, I imagine.

Yougov did a poll among British Indians just recently (only 40% of British Indians are Hindu though) and the Numbers were 34(lab) 24(con) 18(lib), so that should give one a good indication.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1195 on: December 05, 2019, 05:00:12 am »

Sikhs remain highly loyal to Labour, a schism in their Southall heartland at the time of the 2007 byelection (a group led by the local "community leader" passed over for the nomination defected to the Tories) ultimately didn't count for much. They have, in this country and elsewhere, suffered a fair amount of ignorant abuse from racists that was actually "meant" for Muslims - and attempts by a few in their ranks to play the sectarian (ie anti Muslim) card to boost the Tory cause have had little traction.

Hindus are a different matter admittedly, though even there it shouldn't be overstated - a clear plurality continue to support Labour and much of the pro-Tory activism there has become linked with stans for Modi, which is not universally popular. It is worth mentioning too that Priti Patel originates from the Ugandan Asian community, which has always been more pro-Tory than average due to their gratitude to the party that admitted them to the UK in the 1970s.

Hope this helps!
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afleitch
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« Reply #1196 on: December 05, 2019, 05:02:51 am »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc either a large minority or an outright plurality of practicing Catholics in Great Britain today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish. They'd thus be doubly inclined against Brexit and shopkeeper-caste English nationalism.

It can vary. My local knowledge (Glasgow and Lanarkshire) doesn't suggest significantly higher levels of practicing Catholics who are Eastern European as compared to Irish descended and in my area; Tuscan or pre 1918 Polish-Lithuanian. Bear in mind the age and education of post 2004 EU migrants; they are more likely to have been non practicing anyway or indeed anecdotally, escaping creeping Catholic political authoritarianism intentionally.

In Scotland of course Catholic voters were the most pro Yes group and in 2015 moved from being the least likely to vote SNP in 2010 to the most (SNP support is highest amongst Catholics and Nones and lowest amongst Episcopalians (read English) ) Support fell back in 2017, but it fell back for Labour too. They are a key target group this time round.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1197 on: December 05, 2019, 05:23:31 am »

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

It's actually a lot like American Catholics in the northeast and Democrats, actually, although the Troubles do have something to do with it.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #1198 on: December 05, 2019, 09:32:24 am »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 09:35:40 am by SInNYC »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

According to this poll (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/how-ed-miliband-lost-the-jewish-vote/) Jews planned to vote 69-22 Tory over Millibrand even though Millibrand was of Jewish origin (though secular).

The above poll said they voted 63-26 Tory over Corbyn in 2017. So, if both polls are accurate (and they almost certainly are not), Jews actually swung slightly towards Corbyn.

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Intell
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« Reply #1199 on: December 05, 2019, 09:42:26 am »

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

According to this poll (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/how-ed-miliband-lost-the-jewish-vote/) Jews planned to vote 69-22 Tory over Millibrand even though Millibrand was of Jewish origin (though secular).

The above poll said they voted 63-26 Tory over Corbyn in 2017. So, if both polls are accurate (and they almost certainly are not), Jews actually swung slightly towards Corbyn.



The corbyn one is based upon data, the 2015 one is a poll. I would presume jews voted more for millibrand than for corbyn.
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