United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Lets hope the Tories can finish this time around, and win a majority.

No, austerity is cancerous.


Also, just food for thought. While predictions right now are putting Tories on 350, predictions one week out in 2017 had Tories on 370. Just some stuff for though.

While true, it seems as though the Conservatives have avoided a lot of the bad press that hurt them tremendously in 2017. Not to mention the fact that Corbyn hasn't been getting the sort of beneficial press he had that election too

He also had an upward trend whereas this time it seems as if the Conservatives have been able to hold their lead steady. It doesn't help that Corbyn is still way down in preferred PM polls,  a ways below his topline which suggests reluctant voters have already came home. One of the things that I remember from 2017 was me progressively moving the Tory majority down each week, whereas the 340-350 seats for BoJo seems to have been stable since the first days when Labour reconsolidated.

However, the campaign ain't over. There's still a 1v1 debate (in a swingy area, not like deep red Sheffield though), still 6 days of campaigning, polls could be off (likely not in the same way as 2017, but still can benefit Labour), and there could still be a question of vote efficiency. Corbyn certainly has the worse hand, but he still could play for a Lib-SNP-Lab style govt if things turn in his favor.

[afleitch]

Yes, there's been no surge in Corbyn's approval rating which was the canary in the coalmine last time.

Anyway a Scottish poll from YouGov. Changes on 2017

SNP 44% (+7)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Labour 15% (-12)
Lib Dem 12% (+5)
Greens 1% (+1)

[EastAnglianLefty]

It has improved somewhat, actually - it's just that whereas last time he went from being very unpopular to being slightly unpopular, this time he's gone from phenomenally unpopular to merely very unpopular.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

[Oryxslayer]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.

[Mr. Illini]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.

Ipsos-MORI's today has him dropping to -20, down from +2 in like a month. That's not great.

[Oryxslayer]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.

Ipsos-MORI's today has him dropping to -20, down from +2 in like a month. That's not great.

Interesting. Wasn't in the (only) approval tracker. Wonder what might have caused his numbers to plummet while the  topline and preferred PM remains stable. Might have something to do with him pissing of the small minority of Trump supporters this week via that gossip video, individuals that were always going to vote Con or Brexit.

Here's the Ipsos/Mori topline, which conforms to the heard:

https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1202906051651284993

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, there's been no surge in Corbyn's approval rating which was the canary in the coalmine last time.

Anyway a Scottish poll from YouGov. Changes on 2017

SNP 44% (+7)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Labour 15% (-12)
Lib Dem 12% (+5)
Greens 1% (+1)

Interestingly, the Scottish govt is underwater on every issue that was polled: -1 on economy, -4 on Justice, -8 on education, -12 on NHS. In every case, the SNP loses voters from it's 44% topline. Seems clear that Yes/No polarization is carrying the day here.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202863050434514946

Also, here are the changes with their last Scottish poll. I think it's rather important since such a dramatic Brexit drop points to it being the effect of candidates standing down, meaning that 6% is all in the highlands and borders which the Tories need to defend.

[afleitch]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.

Ipsos-MORI's today has him dropping to -20, down from +2 in like a month. That's not great.

It's not. But in that poll it's a reversion to the September figures. Though historically this far into his term he's almost as unpopular as Gordon Brown (who at least has now moved up place in the Crap Premier League)

Unfortunately for Corbyn, he's also the most unpopular opposition leader on record at this time in his leadership, lagging below Miliband who at this point was about to reach the end.

[afleitch]

Yes, there's been no surge in Corbyn's approval rating which was the canary in the coalmine last time.

Anyway a Scottish poll from YouGov. Changes on 2017

SNP 44% (+7)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Labour 15% (-12)
Lib Dem 12% (+5)
Greens 1% (+1)

Interestingly, the Scottish govt is underwater on every issue that was polled: -1 on economy, -4 on Justice, -8 on education, -12 on NHS. In every case, the SNP loses voters from it's 44% topline. Seems clear that Yes/No polarization is carrying the day here.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202863050434514946

Also, here are the changes with their last Scottish poll. I think it's rather important since such a dramatic Brexit drop points to it being the effect of candidates standing down, meaning that 6% is all in the highlands and borders which the Tories need to defend.

It's been that way for a while. Nationalists think everything is wonderful, Unionists think it's all crap. Whatever truth is in the middle. Also note that on 'Education and schools' over 65's with little experience of these services rate them poorly while those of an age to have school age children, don't. Such is boomer nihilism.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1202926509419368448

[jaichind]

Interestingly, the Scottish govt is underwater on every issue that was polled: -1 on economy, -4 on Justice, -8 on education, -12 on NHS. In every case, the SNP loses voters from it's 44% topline. Seems clear that Yes/No polarization is carrying the day here.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202863050434514946

Also, here are the changes with their last Scottish poll. I think it's rather important since such a dramatic Brexit drop points to it being the effect of candidates standing down, meaning that 6% is all in the highlands and borders which the Tories need to defend.

Since CON did not win THAT many seats on Scotland in 2017 BXP did not really stand down in that many seats.  The BXP polling collapse seems more about tactical shift to CON than adjustments for BXP candidates standing down.  Not that it would make that big of a difference given how wide the SNP-CON gap is.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1202926509419368448

Well, Blair had a weird 'labour but not labour' endorsement earlier, Major needed to return the favor

[SInNYC]

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

According to this poll (https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/04/how-ed-miliband-lost-the-jewish-vote/) Jews planned to vote 69-22 Tory over Millibrand even though Millibrand was of Jewish origin (though secular).

The above poll said they voted 63-26 Tory over Corbyn in 2017. So, if both polls are accurate (and they almost certainly are not), Jews actually swung slightly towards Corbyn.

The corbyn one is based upon data, the 2015 one is a poll. I would presume jews voted more for millibrand than for corbyn.

The corbyn one is based on a poll following a panel, while the 2015 one is a pre-election poll. Both are based on self-reported data from randomly selected samples, though selected in different ways. There is no such thing as data (in the context you say it) and everything is a poll as long as we have closed ballots.

[Stańczyk]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

Also important to keep in mind is that UK Jews are far more likely to be orthodox than American Jews. Given that orthodox enclaves in Brooklyn voted for Trump, it seems possible that Jews in Britain are willing to vote for a nationalist party in their country.

[Oryxslayer]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

Also important to keep in mind is that UK Jews are far more likely to be orthodox than American Jews. Given that orthodox enclaves in Brooklyn voted for Trump, it seems possible that Jews in Britain are willing to vote for a nationalist party in their country.

Well, we will get to see how the Jewish vote breaks down between the three parties when presented with three realistic options. The most Jewish constituency, Finchley and Golders Green, has former Jewish Labourite Luciana Berger standing for the Lib-Dems, versus incumbent Mike Freer and Labours Ross Houston. It's one of the seats the Lib-Dems are targeting, and it will likely have one of the largest swings of the night even if Berger fails to take it, since the Lib-Dems got 6.6% last time. By my estimates it's a three way marginal at worst, which makes everything weird.

Frankly, I'm surprised the Tory's don't have mini-Simcha Felders sitting in all three seats, they could easily get away with Orthodox/Traditionalist conservative Jewish Torys here. The closest thing is Villiers in Chipping Barnet.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/johnson-is-heading-for-a-majority-labour-and-tory-officials-say

"Boris Johnson Is Heading for a Majority, Labour and Tory Officials Say"

That looks likely to result in a Tory majority of between 20 and 35 seats in the House of Commons, officials from both parties said. 

[jaichind]

When the campaign started I had hopes that LAB can be driven to below 200 seats.  I had similar hopes in 2017 but it was clear during the campaign it was not to be.  It seems the same this time as well.  Oh well.

[vileplume]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

British Jews do not have the same political outlook as American Jews. British Jews are  mostly centre-right and generally supportive of Cameron-Osbourne-esque economic policies. Unsurprisingly they've been generally a Tory demographic since Thatcher. Yes they are suspicious of overt nationalism but they don't tend to see the Tories as such, instead viewing them as the 'pro-Jewish' party.

[urutzizu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203004409304821760

The Clock is ticking down on Labour at an alarming rate. Corbyn needs to win the Debate tonight, and decisively so it would seem. If he makes it about Trustworthiness he can, I am convinced.

[Tintrlvr]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

British Jews do not have the same political outlook as American Jews. British Jews are  mostly centre-right and generally supportive of Cameron-Osbourne-esque economic policies. Unsurprisingly they've been generally a Tory demographic since Thatcher. Yes they are suspicious of overt nationalism but they don't tend to see the Tories as such, instead viewing them as the 'pro-Jewish' party.

The important element here is that radical Christianity is very weak even within the British right but is a major factor in U.S. politics.

[Walmart_shopper]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

British Jews do not have the same political outlook as American Jews. British Jews are  mostly centre-right and generally supportive of Cameron-Osbourne-esque economic policies. Unsurprisingly they've been generally a Tory demographic since Thatcher. Yes they are suspicious of overt nationalism but they don't tend to see the Tories as such, instead viewing them as the 'pro-Jewish' party.

The important element here is that radical Christianity is very weak even within the British right but is a major factor in U.S. politics.

Orthodox Jews in the US are much more politically radical than religious Jews in Britain, but are a comparably smaller fraction of the larger Jewish community. America's characteristically toxic ideologization of religion is the smoking gun here, not Christianity (or even Judaism).

In any case, if British Jews are dumb enough to pat their backs with the false comfort of British conservatism's relative irreligiosity, that's a weird choice. British right wingers (and left wingers) are incomparably more anti-Semitic than any group in the US, regardless of the radically religious influence on American politics. That's a British problem not unique to any one political faction.

[Tintrlvr]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

British Jews do not have the same political outlook as American Jews. British Jews are  mostly centre-right and generally supportive of Cameron-Osbourne-esque economic policies. Unsurprisingly they've been generally a Tory demographic since Thatcher. Yes they are suspicious of overt nationalism but they don't tend to see the Tories as such, instead viewing them as the 'pro-Jewish' party.

The important element here is that radical Christianity is very weak even within the British right but is a major factor in U.S. politics.

Orthodox Jews in the US are much more politically radical than religious Jews in Britain, but are a comparably smaller fraction of the larger Jewish community. America's characteristically toxic ideologization of religion is the smoking gun here, not Christianity (or even Judaism).

In any case, if British Jews are dumb enough to pat their backs with the false comfort of British conservatism's relative irreligiosity, that's a weird choice. British right wingers (and left wingers) are incomparably more anti-Semitic than any group in the US, regardless of the radically religious influence on American politics. That's a British problem not unique to any one political faction.

*Shrug* It's hard not to be alienated by evangelical Christianity in the U.S. Republican Party if you're not a Christian. There are few non-Christian Republicans in the U.S. for this reason. It's certainly true that some Orthodox Jews have made peace with evangelical Christianity (though they generally live in areas with no significant evangelical presence so don't have to interact regularly anyway), but they're also ideologically strongly aligned with evangelical Christianity on pretty much everything but the messiah status of Jesus. I don't think American Jews at least vote as if they are constantly in existential crisis much (any?) more than other voters do on this point. It's just as alienating to atheists, Buddhists, Hindus, Muslims, etc.

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

And you may be underestimating anti-Semitism in both the U.S. right and left, it's just less acceptable to say out loud.

[Blair]

And it's worth noting that there is a vast swath of difference within the Jewish community in terms of politics & Labour's obvious issues aren't new (but have of course been made much worse by JC)