United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[IceAgeComing]

He resigned from the whip to vote for the deal and the expectation was that this is what he'd do - he remained close with the Lib Dems and the deal was basically "let us know when you want to come back".

[IceAgeComing]

keep in mind the... spotty history of constituency polling in the UK.  Wasn't a whole lot done in the last election but in 2015 there were masses of the things to try and unpick an election somewhat similar to this one: a massive shift in the dynamics of the vote with the collapse of the Lib Dems and the rise of UKIP.  What those polls revealed was an apparently strong personal vote for incumbent Lib Dem MPs; the general voting intention had most Liberal seats falling while when they threw in candidate names the Lib Dems held a lot more of their seats.  This was the reason behind the very high Lib Dem projections in 2015: some people saying that even on 8% of the vote they'd hold onto 30 seats because of this personal vote.

What happened?  The outcomes were closest to the general voting intention questions in those seats; the vast majority of Lib Dem MPs lost their seats and they ended up with 8.

[IceAgeComing]

Yes the importance of Scottish leave voters has been ignored; I’m sure I’m as guilty as most but there’s a trend to treat Scotland as one universal set of seats rather than the 4-5 different clusters you have

Any Scottish leave voter is simply an SNP voter. There is virtually zero leave-unionist piece of the electoral pie big enough to swing a seat.

errr, this is very wrong.  The chunk of the Scottish population that voted leave is probably likely to vote Tory more than the national average; the trends in the 2017 election in the North East indicates that: although some of that might just be areas of natural Tory strength returning home after spending 30 years with the SNP.

[IceAgeComing]

I'm assuming this is about the BBC debate: both major party leaders initially said they'd not be attending but on the day of the thing Corbyn suddenly announced he would in something that I think was probably planned to make May and the Tories look bad and it worked; the "why didn't the Prime Minister show up???" line was easy for everyone to use and they all did.

[IceAgeComing]

wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

perhaps you should consider your own anti-semitism before attacking others; let he who has not sinned etc

[IceAgeComing]

Who will win the white male without a college degree vote? Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn?

you don't get degrees at (most) FE colleges, you get degrees at universities

[IceAgeComing]

jokes are illegal on this forum