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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 71776 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: October 29, 2019, 08:05:27 am »

There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 02:49:51 pm »

As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Blairism is dead, was dead before Corbyn and it does not hold a monopoly on the Labour Right. Indeed, you could argye that the struggle for the Right to find its identity after Blair is a big reason for its internal failure today.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 05:49:19 pm »

Owen Smith (remember him?) is standing down in Pontypridd, as is Heidi Allen.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 06:29:36 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 06:39:25 pm by 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 »

In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2019, 01:01:36 pm »

What seats do you guys reckon Labour are likeliest to pick up even on a bad night? Putney? Hastings? Southampton Itchen?
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2019, 10:34:58 am »

Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2019, 10:56:10 am »

Eh, I think you've maybe been reading too many newspapers. The Tories only managed to poll 26% in the Rotherham constituency (for example) in 2017, a number smaller than the Labour majority there and a full seventeen percentage points lower than their national score.

yeah, but if it does happen I can bump that post without context and claim I'm a genius
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2019, 11:31:53 am »

Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2019, 10:33:35 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 10:38:42 am by 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 »

Does that mean Mark Williams won't stand in Ceredigion? I can't see the Libs wanting to surrender one of their few potential gains in Wales, but that seat is potentially vulnerable to both Labour and the Tories in the right conditions.

Edit: ceredigion is exempt, williams is standing again. Quite likely a Lib gain then, plaid vote here is pretty inflexible and we'll expect a lot of Lab to Lib movement.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2019, 01:28:41 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2019, 01:40:38 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2019, 03:58:03 pm »

More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 

I don't know tbh. First off, the abstention by SF and sdlp won't matter - I don't think the nationalist vote combined has ever even come close to breaking the 5% desosit threshold. The issue is that the current MP has a pretty thumping lead and is not surrounded by scandal (which was the reason Long won back in 2010) - in a place as inflexible as NI it could be insurmountable, and if he is defeated it would indicate a serious issue with rhe DUP as a brand. I honestly think, even with alliance doing well, he is the safest DUP MP in Belfast.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2019, 09:39:44 pm »

One of the likelier independent gains of the night will be in Ashfield, where Gloria De Piero is standing down and longtime local council leader Jason Zadrozny is standing for his Ashfield Independents. Zadrozny was probably going to win back in 2010 for the Lib Dems, till his sudden arrest for child abuse allegations. Since then, he's been expelled from the party, tried to run for PCC, been re-elected as an independent, been acquitted of all charges and then swept in the recent locals with his new pet party.

In other independent news Claire Wright is standing for a third time in East Devon, except this time not against the slightly dodgy Hugo Swire, who is retiring. Sadly for her she doesn't seem to have the goodwill of the Remain/Prog Alliance with a Lib Dem on the ballot.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2019, 07:38:23 am »

Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2019, 07:52:02 am »

Why are the Greens standing Molly Scott Cato, one of their bigger names, in Stroud? Grudge against Drew?
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2019, 11:07:01 am »

Lib Dems and Plaid stepping down in the Vale of Glamorgen will probably be a lot more beneficial to Lavour than the Greens. Scrap what I said about Stroud, that truly is the weirdest part of this alliance - the Greens got less than 1% of the vote last election! I guess the Welsh Greens wanted a token run, and it's not like there are many great targets for them, but still very funny.

I imagine some of the obvious omissions are due to Eurosceptic candidates e.g. St Ives, Eastbourne or friendly incumbents (Norwich South? Sheffield Central?). Or for that matter obstinate local parties, but you'd have to be on the ground to find out what's going on there.
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2019, 11:26:06 am »

True. Another issue is a lot of the Green "surge" was based around a Lib Dem collapse amongst certain sections of the population - students and bobos - that they had cultivated in the Blair years. This means a lot of seats that have seemingly healthy Green vote-shares have Lib Dem histories and latent Lib Dem local machinery and ambitious personnel who don't feel like standing down because central office has made a deal with Caroline Lucas. (Remember, a key part of the Lib Dem appeal is they are the LOCAL party, whose branches theoretically act as autonomous representatives). The only seats the with prior LD history that  have effectively been ceded to Greens, at first glance, are the Isle of Wight (where the local Green is a notable) and Bristol West. Other seats where the Greens have scored highly in 2015 or had good local results since - Sheffield Central, Norwich South, Solihull, Oxford East etc - all are not included in the alliance, and not coincidentally have had good LD results in the past.
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2019, 09:43:43 am »

Ian Lavery has clarified Labour's "neutrality" in the Kashmir conflict, fearing that Hindu voters will turn from the party.

In irrelevant microparty news, the Women's Equality Party are standing down in favour of the Lib Dems in the City of London and Westminster and Sheffield Hallam. (it looks like they were standing against all the prominent sexual misconduct cases, but of course neither Field nor O'Mara are standing again).
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« Reply #18 on: November 15, 2019, 11:36:39 am »

worth noting that New Labour was many things, but it wasn't what Tony Blair thinks it is now (i.e. a socially liberal version of Thatcherism). If anything it was the most naked form of populism we've ever seen the party go down, given it mainly consisted of focus grouped targets and catchy slogans that polled well with non-ideological types.
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« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2019, 06:01:25 am »

Neil OBrien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html




I mean, he would say that though? Hardly a groundbreaking revelations that an incumbent seeking reelection wants to impress that his party is doing well relative to their botched previous campaign.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #20 on: November 18, 2019, 06:19:39 am »

With just a week to go in 2017, Tories were still briefing journalists about how they were going to win all sorts of weird and wonderful Labour "heartland" seats - and some Labour people agreed with them.

Its easy to forget, with the benefit of hindsight, how utterly unexpected that exit poll was.

Yeah, one of the reasons I'm not going with my gut instinct is that I completely brought into the narrative last time, pessimistically viewed the a Labour campaign boat as irrelevant noise or herding and ended up looking a total Chicken Little on election day.
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« Reply #21 on: November 19, 2019, 04:55:15 pm »
« Edited: November 19, 2019, 05:39:18 pm by 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 »

don't understand why Corbyn couldn't say "I will remain personally neutral in the second referendum rather than divide the country etc" rather than awkwardly repeat his line about giving a second referendum a couple of times.

Boris annoyed me intensely in how he answered the Brexit/Scottish questions, but I've long found him an irritating public presence even relative to other Tory politicians, so I can't be the best judge. I guess his strategy of talking about his Brexit deal as often as possible was to ensure he would be talking about it on the news, but it was aggrevating to watch. Corbyn speaks a bit slow for me, but that's probably better than BoJo's nonsense stream of words.

Never cringed harder at a debate than at Etchingham's "WHY CANT YOU SHAKE HANDS" gimmick. Do we really need to treat politicians like they're seven year olds who have just had a tiff? Especially because all things considered, both were pretty genial relative to what they could have been (maybe BJ thought he would look a bit mean ripping into Corbyn too hard ?)

lmao at the Prince Andrew question making Boris's previous question look tactless.

Also ban audiences from these debates imo. They do nothing but waste our time with their generic questions and rehearsed interruptions to throw the opposing candidates.

In conclusion: basically no winner at all and no real effect in the grand scheme of things.
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« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2019, 04:41:54 pm »

The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.

I pronounce it "schtein" as a lingering legacy of my German gcse (I also pronounce "Vollkswagen" as "folksvagen" for similar reasons)
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« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2019, 08:03:04 am »

tbf in regards to the costings, an awful lot of the Lib Dem manifesto is a presupposition that the "remain bonus" of 50 billion pounds turns out in reality.

They also want a LVT on commercial land to replace rents. I support that.

Also in regards to the LD policy on further education, I really hate the phrase "skills wallet". Must have focus grouped well, because I've seen them use it a lot.

Classic LD triangulation policy with Trident: they decide not to abolish, not to renew in full, but build three submarines instead of the current four. (In all fairness to them, Labour apparently were musing on an even sillier one a few years back: build the submarines so Barrow workers can do something, but don't build the missiles)

Also they want cannabis legalised. Can't remember if they wanted that last time.
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« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2019, 08:22:34 am »
« Edited: November 21, 2019, 08:37:16 am by 🅰 🦀 @k 🎂 »

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecided Lab 2017 voters + a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)
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