Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 16, 2020, 01:46:57 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Let the hero born of woman crush the IDP with his heel)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 75783 times)
Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 78
Germany


« on: November 01, 2019, 08:48:51 am »
« edited: November 01, 2019, 05:04:46 pm by Keep Calm and ... »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



Edit:
    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019
Logged
Keep Calm and ...
OldEurope
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 78
Germany


« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2019, 05:01:32 pm »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



The tweet's gone. What did it say?

    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC