United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 138110 times)
Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« on: November 06, 2019, 09:41:40 AM »

Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.
I believe he's only resigned as Welsh Secretary and still intends to stand in the election.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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Poland


« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2019, 03:43:57 PM »

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.
Scottish polling at the time showed Labour rising to 25% or even above, it's just the narrative was set by the polls right after the election call that showed Labour in the teens so nobody really picked up on it at the time, and all the polling very much overestimated the SNP.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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***
Posts: 1,027
Poland


« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2019, 09:07:17 PM »


Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.
Panelbase and YouGov have wildly divergent scores for Scottish Labour this time round, at least we know they're not herding!

It really is silly that we've only had four Scottish polls during this campaign, when we had thirteen in 2017.
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