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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 75873 times)
Kyng
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« on: November 02, 2019, 07:29:48 pm »

The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens

This was always going to happen. I knew not to underestimate the probability of the "Corbyn may be an incompetent foolish Hard-Brexiteering fool with no real solutions apart from regressive 70s socialism and who is at best apathetic about antisemitism BUT I DON'T WANT TO LET THE TORIES IN" voters going back to the fold quickly and polling seems to show that has happened. However, the Lib Dems will still make significant gains at 16-19% of the vote (that's basically triple what they got last time) and the real (and achievable) goal is to maintain that level into the election.

Yeah, it's depressing, but not in the least bit surprising. I guess that's what happens when you have a broken political system that strongly encourages two major parties, at the expense of everybody else.

Like in 2017, I'm probably going to end up voting Lib Dem, not because I like them very much (I don't really like any of the main parties), but because I hate two-party politics more than I hate any specific one of those parties.
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Kyng
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Posts: 106
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2019, 10:14:46 am »

This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.

CON 311, LAB 268? Good grief, I hope that doesn't happen Angry . That probably means that:

1) Boris has a good chance of being able to cling on as PM (depending on what happens with the minor parties, there is the possibility of Corbyn becoming PM by assembling a very weak 'rainbow coalition');
2) Even if Corbyn doesn't get in, he'll probably still be able to stay on as Labour leader, on the basis that the party's number of seats in Parliament went up;
3) Whoever does become Prime Minister is going have a very hard time getting their Brexit plans through Parliament, because the numbers for a Brexit deal simply won't be there.

As someone who can't stand either Corbyn or Boris, and is sick of Brexit deadlock and uncertainty... this outcome sounds to me like the worst of all possible worlds.
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Kyng
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Posts: 106
United Kingdom


« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2019, 01:27:13 pm »



YouGov's got an interesting chart out. While the numbers look bleak for Labour, remember that voters cast ballots on more issues than Brexit.

The figures on the bottom row add up to 122%... so, what gives :-/ ?
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Kyng
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Posts: 106
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2019, 01:48:54 pm »

Liberal Democratís costing Labor party 25 seats in wales, midlands and north. If liberals get their deposits (5%) in conservative-labor marginals then thatís the difference between a Tory government and a hung parliament. So the liberals are ensuring Brexit not stopping it.

Not necessarily. The only people voting Lib Dem in constituencies like that will be:

1) Their most devoted and die-hard supporters, who are unwilling to vote tactically for the "lesser of two evils", and;
2) At the opposite end of the spectrum, protest-voters who don't like the two main parties.

If the Lib Dems weren't running, then I expect more than half of the people in group #1 would hold their noses for Labour - but a minority would instead opt for the Tories. As for group #2 (which I suspect would be larger than group #1), most of those people simply wouldn't vote (or they'd just vote for a different minor candidate).

Sure, the Tories will win or hold a few extra constituencies thanks to Lab/Lib vote-splitting, but I suspect you'll be able to count the number on one hand.
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Kyng
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Posts: 106
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« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2019, 08:31:17 am »

Yeah... this wasn't the result I wanted. Still, the fact that I dislike both major-party leaders made it easier for me to accept: with Corbyn gone, I feel that I at least got something out of this election (ideally, we'd rather have got rid of Boris, but I'll accept getting rid of Corbyn as a consolation prize).

I was really hoping for the Lib Dems to do well - so, this was brutal for me from that point of view. Not only due to Jo Swinson's agonisingly narrow loss - but also the "close but no cigar" moments in Esher and Walton, Wimbledon, Winchester, South Cambridgeshire, Sheffield Hallam, Cheltenham... having so many near misses was just crushing.

Pretty much the only positive I can take is that, in and around London, there were quite a lot of Tory/Remain constituencies with large swings to the Lib Dems, where they often leap-frogged Labour into second place. I'd argue that this puts them in a stronger position that they were in after 2017: it gives them a fair number of credible new targets for the next election, whenever that may be.

(Of course, they'll need an inspiring leader to take advantage of that - and their disappointing seat count from this year has left them with a very limited pool of potential choices...)
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Kyng
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Posts: 106
United Kingdom


« Reply #5 on: December 13, 2019, 09:03:17 am »

There's no evidence all those Liberal Democrats would vote Labour, or vice versa.

Indeed - especially in the case of the Scottish seats (where anti-SNP tactical voting is just as prevalent, if not more so, than anti-Tory tactical voting). If anything, Labour and the Lib Dems pulling out of those seats might actually increase the Tory majorities.

As far as I'm concerned, the only really awful results are the three-way marginals in London (in particular, Kensington going Tory made me want to punch my screen since that's where Grenfell Tower is located...), but in those constituencies where either Labour or the Lib Dems are way behind, I suspect a lot of that vote is either protest-voters or low-information voters (neither of whom can be relied on to back the other left/Remain party).  
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