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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 48492 times)
DaWN
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« on: October 29, 2019, 06:42:31 am »

It's actually a United Kingdom General Election, as Northern Ireland will also participate and we don't call them parliamentary elections. Otherwise spot on.
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DaWN
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 03:02:00 pm »

As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Blairism is dead, was dead before Corbyn and it does not hold a monopoly on the Labour Right. Indeed, you could argye that the struggle for the Right to find its identity after Blair is a big reason for its internal failure today.

This.

Also, some people seriously need to get it out of their heads that the far-left genie is going back in the bottle when Corbyn goes. His replacement will just as, if not more, left-wing than he is. The inability of those on the centre and centre-left to just let go of Labour has been/is one of the most frustrating things to watch over the past few years.
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DaWN
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2019, 05:36:21 pm »

Apparently Antoinette Sandbach (Ind, former Con; Eddisbury) has defected to the Lib Dems and will stand for re-election under that label. I'll be charitable and say she has 'no chance' rather than 'pffffttttt not a f!cking chance in hell'
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DaWN
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2019, 10:59:52 am »

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.


Brake and Lloyd (if he counts) are definitely more likely to lose than Swinson. Probably Farron as well. I think people are overestimating how vulnerable she is.
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DaWN
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2019, 11:48:21 am »

Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

I'm not saying Brake is particularly vulnerable (he isn't), just that he's more likely to lose than Swinson.
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DaWN
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2019, 06:56:36 am »

There are no such thing as Brexit or Remain seats!

A Labour- Tory marginal seat in the Midlands that voted 52-48 leave is still a million times different to a 52-48 leave voting Lib-Tory marginal in the South West. Equally a 24 year old single mum who voted leave in the first seat is a lot different to a 57 year old professional who voted leave in the second seat.

We’re talking about groups respectively of 17 and 16 million people; and any voter between the age of 18-21 couldn’t vote in 2016 by my maths.

We know seats that ‘voted leave’ can still easily vote for the Lib Dem’s- we already have examples of this when the Lib Dem’s won before- Carshalton, Westmoreland, Brecon and Radnorshire and Eastbourne to give four.

The Lib Dem’s even now are not just a stop Brexit Party; they’re actually a cash rich, Uber local, and activist led party with a strong local base. They have a history of winning seats they shouldn’t by getting local people to run on bin collections who win as a council, then run the council, then win the seat etc. They also have regions of historic strength that did well for them at the local elections.



Fairly sure Westmorland & Lonsdale voted Remain.

But otherwise yes, I mostly agree with this. Remain-Leave is going to be a divide in this election (and people who claim that its not going to be important and other issues will take over are kidding themselves) but it will be far from the only issue and the ones that have ruled British politics for decades are not going to magically disappear.

And by the way, even if it was, you guys understand there are Remain voters even in Leave seats right? So even if the Lib Dems were only improving among Remainers, their vote share would still go up in Brexity seats if it goes up nationwide by the amount currently predicted.
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DaWN
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2019, 03:49:19 pm »

The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens

This was always going to happen. I knew not to underestimate the probability of the "Corbyn may be an incompetent foolish Hard-Brexiteering fool with no real solutions apart from regressive 70s socialism and who is at best apathetic about antisemitism BUT I DON'T WANT TO LET THE TORIES IN" voters going back to the fold quickly and polling seems to show that has happened. However, the Lib Dems will still make significant gains at 16-19% of the vote (that's basically triple what they got last time) and the real (and achievable) goal is to maintain that level into the election.
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DaWN
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2019, 04:42:00 pm »

There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that constituency polling will be any better than it was in 2015, is there? I followed it quite closely that time and was badly burned.

Constituency polling is always terrible and nobody should be taking it seriously. Unfortunately, people will but that's par for the course.
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DaWN
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2019, 06:59:33 am »



Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)
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DaWN
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2019, 03:56:50 pm »

Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...
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DaWN
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2019, 05:37:47 pm »

Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...

We will certainly get hard Brexit if large number of "remainers" waste their votes on the LibDems or Greens in seats that they could not possibly win, but Labour might.

A vote for Labour is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Hard Brexit. For him, worker's rights, human rights, jobs created by intra-EU trade, industry and communities supported by it, the threat of companies leaving the UK and the threat of the NHS being sold off to American big pharma are all unimportant because the EU once said something nasty and capitalist. On Brexit terms, there's no difference between Labour and the Tories and its Corbyn Labour's one great skill that they have managed to convince millions this isn't the case.

A vote for genuine Remain representation in Parliament is much better than that. Unfortunately, a large number of Remainers will see it your way and there will be 500+ MPs committed to Hard Brexit in the next parliament. Because of that, I'd be ecstatic with 20 Lib Dem MPs.

TLDR; "I'm voting Labour because I don't prioritise Brexit and I agree with them on the issues" is a stance I'm perfectly fine with. I don't agree with it but it's a reasonable one. "I'm voting Labour because they'll prevent Hard Brexit" is ridiculous and counterproductive to the Remain cause.

And before anyone points it out, yes I'm bitter and my distaste of the whole situation is bringing emotion into my judgement, which is obviously not ideal.
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DaWN
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2019, 06:33:51 am »

And only if you assume Labour won't go back on its second referendum pledge. Which I don't.

In other (much less angry and confrontational news) Rick Wakeman's 'Arthur' is apparently back as the BBC's Election Theme. I think I can say without fear of contradiction that this is the best news we've had all election.
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DaWN
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2019, 06:56:32 am »



Sad

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'

There is no actual evidence this is planned, its a totally unsourced rumour.

And even if it was going to happen, it wouldn't make the tiniest bit of difference to the result
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DaWN
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2019, 07:02:01 am »

Also, the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have entered into a Remain alliance, which involves standing down in a number of seats. And of course, one of the seats the Lib Dems have chosen to stand down in is mine. Terrific. I'm not huge on voting Green but I can at least stomach it unlike everyone else so that's what I'll be doing.

I doubt this alliance will shift a single seat in the end.
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DaWN
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2019, 12:27:07 pm »

The purpose of this alliance isn't really to win seats (aside from Brighton and some of the Tory-LD contests) - its to prevent Lib Dem activists and money from being funnelled into unwinnable seats and to make sure the Greens keep as many deposits as possible. You'll notice there hasn't been any stand-downs in Lab-LD contests, probably because they're well aware that a large number of Green voters next choice is Labour.
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DaWN
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2019, 02:49:53 pm »

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.
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DaWN
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2019, 03:14:00 pm »

For what its worth, I think people seriously underestimate how badly Labour have pissed off much of their remainer voting bloc from 2017 and to assume that they will flock back between now and election day at the sight of Boris is a dubious assumption. The problem for the Lib Dems of course is that these people are, electorally speaking, mainly irrelevant, being concentrated in safe Labour seats where the majorities will no doubt fall by a decent amount but nothing like enough to put the seats in danger (a good example is my own seat), but Labour thinking that the same arguments they used in 2017 are going to work this time after the last 2 and a half years has the potential to end badly for them.

Having said that,

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

This is the correct answer
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DaWN
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« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2019, 03:18:04 pm »

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.
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DaWN
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2019, 06:31:12 am »

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

It would provide the advantage that we would have no way of not leaving the EU and this is what Corbyn wants, because he is a useful idiot for the Faragists. Remember, the EU once said something capitalist and that is utterly inexcusable for a good comrade to support.

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

Ah, yes, the PLP, that famously firm and not-at-all-spineless group of people. Get real. Corbyn wouldn't have to finish the word 'deselection' before they'd all bolt into line like a succession of highly paid rabbits. And frankly I find the notion that the membership would oppose Corbyn on anything utterly and completely hilarious. The only way his hand would be forced would be by any parties supporting the government threatening to pull support, which I suppose would require... oh yes, the Lib Dems. A majority Corbyn government would have no issue making a soft vs hard Brexit referendum or not having one at all. And at what cost? Some grumbling from MPs and initial outrage from voters before everyone forgets it even happened by 2024. And that's not even considering the possibility that he would try to pass it with Conservative votes.

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

You're quite right that I don't trust Corbyn on this. My evidence for it are his last three and a half years of actions, right up to the '7/10' interview. The counter-evidence is the idea that Corbyn actually wants to remain (just lol) or that the PLP will force his hand (the PLP couldn't force him to drink a glass of water.) I'm quite happy in my distrust.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!?Huh?1111!!!!!

This but unironically
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DaWN
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« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2019, 07:02:59 am »


BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!?Huh?1111!!!!!

This but unironically

Ah, you subscribe to one of the most ridiculous alt-centrist memes. Good to know Smiley

In reality, Corbyn has publicly opposed a no deal Brexit on every occasion. From the beginning. And has whipped Labour MPs to oppose it again and again.

But something something DISASTER SOCIALISM something something, amirite?  

Nice label but I think you'll find I'm firmly a creature of the left on  nearly every issue apart from 'is Jeremy Corbyn the rightful Emperor of the Galaxy?'

The only reason he whipped against No Deal is because even he is smart enough to spot the electoral consequences. I have no doubts about his personal views.

I don't necessarily agree with his economic policies but they are well down the list of issues.

The reason why Corbyn has shifted a lot on Brexit recently is IMO down to supporter pressure. I bet if he tried to push Labor in a Brexit direction even the supporters would revolt. The party membership does come across as cultish at times but the majority of them would draw the line at Corbyn not allowing a remain option in a referendum.

You ever met any Corbyn supporters lol? Worship of him comes first. The reason for the shift was electoral, notice it mainly coincides with the LD poll rise around late spring/early summer
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DaWN
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« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2019, 07:52:46 am »

Well, guilty as charged there. I'd point out that you and I are not on as different sides as you seem to think. We both want the same thing (a fairer society), I am just of the belief that Lexit is certain to cause, not prevent, Farage and Boris' free market dystopia. That's why I am so adamant.
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DaWN
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« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2019, 06:38:28 am »

This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.
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DaWN
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« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2019, 08:00:56 am »

This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.

It's not complicated. A man who is member of a party almost entirely oriented around stopping Brexit determined that the best way of stopping Brexit was not running at all. When your party makes itself entirely about stopping Brexit, this is entirely the right thing to do. In fact, the only mystery is why more members of the party entirely about stopping Brexit wouldn't do what is most likely to stop Brexit and step down. The LibDems prattlr on and on about Brexit but when it comes down to making hard choices to stop Brexit they go about political strutting that makes stopping Brexit less likely. But please do go on (and on) about how thr LibDems are the only party capable of stopping Brexit.

You mustn't have read any posts of mine before then
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DaWN
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« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2019, 10:00:47 am »



What morons. Corbyn probably can't believe his luck. Not only is his conning people into thinking he'll support Remain working, he's actually getting help for it! And the Lib Dems wonder why they got plastered so badly in 2015.
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DaWN
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« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2019, 10:44:09 am »

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.
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