United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[morgieb]

Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.

Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.

[morgieb]

This is from Election Maps UK



This doesn't mean in anyway the same is going to happen again; but Labour are polling the same as they did during the same point in the last campaign and Brexit are only slightly ahead of UKIP (with the expectation that support will collapse) Green are also converging on their last result. For all the talk of Lab-Lib Dem switchers, the Tories are down almost as much as the Lib Dems are up.

So by that logic, we can expect the votes on December 12 to be:

Con: 33.7%
Lab: 39.9%
Lib Dem: 13.9%
Brexit: 4.3%
Greens: 2.3%

Dominating!

[morgieb]

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

It would provide the advantage that we would have no way of not leaving the EU and this is what Corbyn wants, because he is a useful idiot for the Faragists. Remember, the EU once said something capitalist and that is utterly inexcusable for a good comrade to support.

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

Ah, yes, the PLP, that famously firm and not-at-all-spineless group of people. Get real. Corbyn wouldn't have to finish the word 'deselection' before they'd all bolt into line like a succession of highly paid rabbits. And frankly I find the notion that the membership would oppose Corbyn on anything utterly and completely hilarious. The only way his hand would be forced would be by any parties supporting the government threatening to pull support, which I suppose would require... oh yes, the Lib Dems. A majority Corbyn government would have no issue making a soft vs hard Brexit referendum or not having one at all. And at what cost? Some grumbling from MPs and initial outrage from voters before everyone forgets it even happened by 2024. And that's not even considering the possibility that he would try to pass it with Conservative votes.

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

You're quite right that I don't trust Corbyn on this. My evidence for it are his last three and a half years of actions, right up to the '7/10' interview. The counter-evidence is the idea that Corbyn actually wants to remain (just lol) or that the PLP will force his hand (the PLP couldn't force him to drink a glass of water.) I'm quite happy in my distrust.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

This but unironically

The reason why Corbyn has shifted a lot on Brexit recently is IMO down to supporter pressure. I bet if he tried to push Labor in a Brexit direction even the supporters would revolt. The party membership does come across as cultish at times but the majority of them would draw the line at Corbyn not allowing a remain option in a referendum.

[morgieb]

I have wonder what kind of result would force Swinson into resigning. Would she be able to stay on if the party barely makes any gains - or even loses seats -? Are we looking at Tim Farron 2: Electric Boogaloo?

If the result remains fairly static from 2017? Then she probably goes. But she is getting a 8% swing or so, which isn't insubstantial.