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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 58485 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: October 29, 2019, 03:30:07 pm »

Whilst he had this reputation as this great, charismatic campaigner when he was Mayor of London, I think the crucial thing in his favour was that there was, relatively speaking, a lot of goodwill for him (which has since evaporated), and he was running for a Mickey Mouse position with comparatively little power.

He was also running against Ken Livingstone, who had reached his electoral sell-by date in 2008 and was even less inherently appealing when he ran again four years later.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 03:41:12 pm »

Something important to be aware of: once the campaign period begins, strict rules about broadcast media coverage for political parties are imposed. Note that most people get their news from the broadcast media and pay much more attention to the political items during an election campaign than the rest of the time. So this matters a lot.

Anyway, broadcast media coverage over the past few months has recently focused very, very heavily on the government and on the Conservative Party. Once the campaign rules kick in, just about everyone (Labour, the LibDems, the Brexit Party...) will get more airtime. This will have an effect. Exactly how much always varies, but it matters.

Or to put things more bluntly: it will not be possible for the government to run a 'people vs. parliament' (absurd concept, whatever) campaign, because the broadcast regulations will not allow for the coverage shares that might allow it.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 03:45:55 pm »

Right, can we all agree to behave as adults in this thread? It isn't a game for the entertainment of baboons: some of us have to live here.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2019, 08:15:16 am »

Of course a lot of those voters in 2017 were not normal voters for either party: that was a very strange election in that all the smaller parties basically collapsed at the start of the campaign (the LibDem vote share only held up at all because the outward flow of solidly pro-EU voters from the Conservatives was so strong). A lot of the odder voting patterns that resulted have not shown up in subsequent rounds of local elections, with a couple of exceptions: General Elections are not applied local elections, but this is interesting. All of this is a major complicating factor for anyone trying to make predictions or projections.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2019, 08:42:53 am »

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2019, 05:22:44 pm »

FTPA manages to be the worst of both worlds (there is a case for actual fixed terms and there is a case for the traditional Westminster approach, but this halfway house is appalling) and should certainly be replaced.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2019, 10:46:12 am »

Eh, I think you've maybe been reading too many newspapers. The Tories only managed to poll 26% in the Rotherham constituency (for example) in 2017, a number smaller than the Labour majority there and a full seventeen percentage points lower than their national score.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2019, 10:50:22 am »

Regarding the Brexit Party presumably running everywhere it can: though the exact effects are hard to predict with much certainty (like every other detail of this election, actually), it certainly isn't good news for a Conservative strategy that aims to repeat what they tried last time. At least so long as the Brexit Party is able to maintain some sort of polling viability. People do need to remember that most people do not have firm partisan attachments these days, even if they have views and preferences...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2019, 02:05:46 pm »

It would be amusing if Raab lost, but I would caution that he polled 59% two years ago. And for obvious reasons if one was still voting Conservative in 2017, one was not #fbpe. Of course as recently as 2005 the LibDems managed to poll a shade under 30% there (still not enough to come close: 16pts behind) which is, sure, an indicator of potential of a sort, but...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2019, 06:33:37 pm »

Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

I've had a look at the internals. Put bluntly, they don't pass the smell test. Even ignoring some of those issues (we shouldn't) the starting sample size was small and by the time they reached the effective sample size, tiny.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2019, 06:43:08 pm »

I note (wearily) that just as all those splendid recent constituency polls for the LibDems were commissioned by them, so this poll seems to have been to-order for an article in the Daily Mail. Survation's record as a nationwide pollster isn't bad, but they have had (and ever since they emerged) a bad habit of doing this sort of thing alongside...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2019, 06:47:44 pm »

LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.

No they won't. If they end up polling anything like where they currently are in the national polls, they will see their percentages soar in pretty much every constituency that they do not presently hold (and will do so in most of those as well).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2019, 02:22:44 pm »

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2019, 07:47:08 pm »

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

There's more, because, you know, the Sunday papers...

Deltapoll: Con 40, Lab 28, LDem 14, BP 11, SNP 3, Greens 2, Others 2
YouGov: Con 39, Lab 27, LDem 16, BP 7, Others ?
ComRes: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 17, BP 10, SNP 4, Greens 3, Others 1
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2019, 01:17:54 pm »

I mean Plaid standing down in some heavily Anglophone constituencies where they are a fringe party in exchange for the LibDems standing down in some heavily Welsh-speaking constituencies where they've not polled well since the 1960s has... what effect, exactly?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2019, 12:21:41 pm »

Some good news for Labour: Woodcock is to stand down at Barrow & Furness. He and his partner (liberal journalist Isabel Hardman, whose employment by the increasingly hard-right Spectator is, of course, a source of continued bafflement to all) are having a baby and he seems to have decided to move forward with his life. Had he run again I doubt he would have won, but he'd have knocked the seat right of contention. As it is, well, once again it will depend on how that peculiar collection of peculiar towns responds to whatever the hell the national environment is by December.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2019, 07:27:20 pm »

ICM now work for Reuters, having been fired from The Grauniad after an openly acknowledged decision to 'adjust everything to make it at least 3pts more Tory' backfired embarrassingly at the 2017 GE. And one presumes they have dropped the above approach.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2019, 09:30:54 am »

Parliament hasn't even been dissolved yet, kid.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2019, 12:35:16 pm »

wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

Unlikely: Grieg is a better writer than that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2019, 01:24:58 pm »

Main story on BBC News site right now, probably not a super one for the government, on balance.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2019, 08:41:10 am »

Williamson, Hepburn and Godsiff all rejected as candidates by the NEC.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2019, 01:02:06 pm »

Apparently Nick Brown was extremely insistent on Godsiff getting the heave-ho, and, well, it's hard not to respond to that detail with a cackle.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2019, 01:05:00 pm »

Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2019, 01:13:36 pm »

Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?

She may have had enough: it's been eighteen years and the political atmosphere is increasingly ghoulish. As for the constituency... it is the most singular constituency in Northern Ireland, so who knows.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2019, 04:03:48 pm »

The post is actually very weak 99% of the time (basically only becomes relevant when the Leader resigns) and serves little practical purpose, other than giving the holder a seat on the NEC. Historically it was an honorific, one that often went to defeated leadership contenders.
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