AZ Emerson : close matchups
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Author Topic: AZ Emerson : close matchups  (Read 1455 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: October 29, 2019, 11:50:50 AM »
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races

Trump vs Warren : tied
Trump vs Biden : tied
Trump vs Sanders : Trump+2
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 11:53:29 AM »
Also : Trump approval -5 (45/50) but impeachment is underwater too (50 against / 44 for)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 12:13:37 PM »
FWIW, the sample in this poll is 64% landline, 36% online.
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slothdem
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 12:22:12 PM »
About what I expected. I think Arizona will be the closest state. Luckily, Liz is a very good fit.
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SN2903
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2019, 12:36:35 PM »
AZ is tilt Trump
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2019, 12:37:54 PM »
Looks about right.

AZ will be close next year.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 12:51:43 PM »
If the poll average shows a tie on election day, I’m pretty sure Trump will lose the state.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 01:18:51 PM »
Quote from: slothdem on October 29, 2019, 12:22:12 PM
About what I expected. I think Arizona will be the closest state. Luckily, Liz is a very good fit.

She is trailing in NH and is behind in AZ primary poll
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UncleSam
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2019, 02:57:25 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 29, 2019, 12:51:43 PM
If the poll average shows a tie on election day, I’m pretty sure Trump will lose the state.
Trump overperformed his polling average in AZ in 2016. Why would 2020 be different?
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SN2903
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2019, 03:26:12 PM »
Quote from: UncleSam on October 29, 2019, 02:57:25 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 29, 2019, 12:51:43 PM
If the poll average shows a tie on election day, I’m pretty sure Trump will lose the state.
Trump overperformed his polling average in AZ in 2016. Why would 2020 be different?
Exactly if anything Trump should win AZ by 3-5 pts.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2019, 03:40:08 PM »
Quote from: UncleSam on October 29, 2019, 02:57:25 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 29, 2019, 12:51:43 PM
If the poll average shows a tie on election day, I’m pretty sure Trump will lose the state.
Trump overperformed his polling average in AZ in 2016. Why would 2020 be different?

Uh, no he didn't?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_clinton-5832.html

And RCP had McSally slightly ahead and slightly overestimated Ducey's margin, so I'd sooner bet on Arizona polls (like polls of Southwestern states in general) having a slight Republican bias.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2019, 06:27:12 PM »
But I was told that SOCIALISTS Bernie/Warren would do at least 10 points worse than Unbeatable Electable Moderate Titan Joe Biden in neoliberal states like Arizona!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2019, 08:42:27 PM »
It's an Emerson poll.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2019, 12:12:14 AM »

Yep.  It's an Emerson Poll of "Likely Voters" one year before the election.  There were polls showing Clinton several months before the election. 

Arizona and Texas are like fools gold for the Democrats.  Maybe they'll win both in 2028 or 2032. 
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2019, 01:48:26 AM »
Arizona is fool's good for the Democratic Party which is why we won a Senate seat there less than 12 months ago.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2019, 05:06:46 AM »
Quote from: Hollywood on October 30, 2019, 12:12:14 AM

Yep.  It's an Emerson Poll of "Likely Voters" one year before the election.  There were polls showing Clinton several months before the election. 

Arizona and Texas are like fools gold for the Democrats.  Maybe they'll win both in 2028 or 2032. 

Just like I have been saying along, Dems are running  a 50-state strategy, Ds are targeting OH and IA too.
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Vern
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2019, 06:55:39 AM »
AZ is winnable for Dems, but it will take a lot of time and money.
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slothdem
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2019, 08:49:40 AM »
Quote from: Hollywood on October 30, 2019, 12:12:14 AM

Yep.  It's an Emerson Poll of "Likely Voters" one year before the election.  There were polls showing Clinton several months before the election. 

Arizona and Texas are like fools gold for the Democrats.  Maybe they'll win both in 2028 or 2032. 

Michigan and Pennsylvania for fools gold for Republicans until they weren't.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2019, 12:55:02 PM »
Very bad poll for the President, especially considering this is from the king of landline polls.
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SN2903
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2019, 04:33:32 PM »
Quote from: Vern on October 30, 2019, 06:55:39 AM
AZ is winnable for Dems, but it will take a lot of time and money.
I hope they spend a lot of $ there they will likely lose and it will divert from the big 3: MI, PA and WI.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2019, 05:06:08 PM »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 30, 2019, 04:33:32 PM
Quote from: Vern on October 30, 2019, 06:55:39 AM
AZ is winnable for Dems, but it will take a lot of time and money.
I hope they spend a lot of $ there they will likely lose and it will divert from the big 3: MI, PA and WI.

The only way we lose the Big 3, if Warren was the nominee, Biden will solidify PA, from Scranton, PA
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2019, 02:36:02 PM »
Arizona will be close and probably near the tipping point. I do think Trump has a slight advantage there.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2019, 04:14:28 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on October 31, 2019, 02:36:02 PM
Arizona will be close and probably near the tipping point. I do think Trump has a slight advantage there.

Trump hasnt  secured anything
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