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November 17, 2019, 07:34:40 am
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  AZ-Emerson: Kelly +1
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Author Topic: AZ-Emerson: Kelly +1  (Read 550 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: October 29, 2019, 12:56:04 pm »

46% Mark Kelly (D)
45% Martha McSally (R, inc.)

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 01:03:51 pm »

So Kelly is running about 1 point ahead of the Democratic field?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2019, 01:08:12 pm »

^I think itís more likely than not that McSally underperforms Trump, even if only slightly. Itís not exactly looking good for her.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2019, 04:11:56 pm »

I don't buy the Atlas CW that there are going to be legions of Trump/Kelly voters. It doesn't really make any sense. Because McSally lost an election 2 years ago? Yeah, I'm sure that's going to sway many votes. Roll Eyes

This will likely track the presidential race pretty closely.
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2019, 04:17:24 pm »

I don't buy the Atlas CW that there are going to be legions of Trump/Kelly voters. It doesn't really make any sense. Because McSally lost an election 2 years ago? Yeah, I'm sure that's going to sway many votes. Roll Eyes

This will likely track the presidential race pretty closely.

I donít think anyone believes that there will be legions of Trump/Kelly voters, but there donít have to be that many of them for her to lose. Even a slight underperformance would spell doom for McSally.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2019, 04:20:39 pm »

I don't buy the Atlas CW that there are going to be legions of Trump/Kelly voters. It doesn't really make any sense. Because McSally lost an election 2 years ago? Yeah, I'm sure that's going to sway many votes. Roll Eyes

This will likely track the presidential race pretty closely.

I donít think anyone believes that there will be legions of Trump/Kelly voters, but there donít have to be that many of them for her to lose. Even a slight underperformance would spell doom for McSally.

I guess it depends. Like it is pretty bizarre for some posters to think that #trendsarefake and AZ will go back to supporting Trump comfortably (especially if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!1!!) yet simultaneously think McSally is the underdog.
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2019, 06:30:47 pm »

There certainly won't be legions of Trump/Kelly voters, but even underperforming Trump by 1% or so is bad news for McSally. I'd still rate this Toss-Up/Tilt D, and this is Memerson, but McSally hasn't exactly been polling well.
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Chancellor S019
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2019, 10:04:44 pm »

A Memerson poll that actually makes sense

But conventional wisdom here says anything from Pure Tossup to Tilt D is a reasonable rating. Kelly is a marginal favorite, but this or NC will probably be the closest race this cycle. As such, McSally is definitely not out, but being an underdog as an incumbent, this far out is not a good sign, at all.
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2019, 03:45:54 am »
« Edited: October 30, 2019, 04:11:24 am by ElectionsGuy »

STRONG CANDIDATE Kelly LANDSLIDES WEAK INCUMBENT McSally OUT OF OFFICE.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2019, 04:46:29 am »

This is an Emerson poll, but Kelly will win😀
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2019, 10:01:19 am »

STRONG CANDIDATE Kelly LANDSLIDES WEAK INCUMBENT McSally OUT OF OFFICE.

Youíre awfully confident that this couldnít possibly be better than a Tossup for Democrats, so where exactly is McSally going to do significantly better in 2020 compared to her last race?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2019, 10:16:05 am »

Well,
If Mcsallly wins, she loses in 2022 lol
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2019, 10:25:59 am »


Because the only way she wins is if Trump wins.
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2019, 11:57:37 am »


Because the only way she wins is if Trump wins.

I agree. If McSally loses next year, her political career will be over. She won't be touched with a ten-foot pole after two consecutive Senatorial defeats. It amazes me how rapidly Arizona seems to be shifting into the Democratic column. I wonder what role the John McCain camp of Republicans are playing in this transformation.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2019, 11:59:43 am »

STRONG CANDIDATE Kelly LANDSLIDES WEAK INCUMBENT McSally OUT OF OFFICE.

Youíre awfully confident that this couldnít possibly be better than a Tossup for Democrats, so where exactly is McSally going to do significantly better in 2020 compared to her last race?

I didn't imply anything about confidence. It was just a sh**tpost mocking people who believe strong/weak candidates make a huge difference in today's environment.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2019, 12:14:47 pm »


Because the only way she wins is if Trump wins.

I agree. If McSally loses next year, her political career will be over. She won't be touched with a ten-foot pole after two consecutive Senatorial defeats. It amazes me how rapidly Arizona seems to be shifting into the Democratic column. I wonder what role the John McCain camp of Republicans are playing in this transformation.

It could still be her last senate race. The only way Republicans keep that seat in another Republican midterm is that they run against themselves. They only do that by replacing her.
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2019, 12:25:24 pm »

I didn't imply anything about confidence. It was just a sh**tpost mocking people who believe strong/weak candidates make a huge difference in today's environment.

Obviously the assessment of "candidate quality" is pretty much always hilariously subjective (which a lot of people here fail to understand), but you could argue that it certainly makes a difference even in today's environment. MO-SEN 2016, KS-SEN 2014, IA-04 2018, and WV-SEN 2018 all should have been easy Republican wins if fundamentals were the only thing that mattered. And weíre not even talking about deep red territory here, but about a state where McSally really cannot afford to underperform Trump at all.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2019, 12:48:34 pm »

AZ, CO, ME, KS, GA and NC are lean D takeovers. Maybe even AK. That's  where Dems should $$$$ all their resources. Yes, Dems can have more than 50 seats
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2019, 12:57:47 pm »

Slight D.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2019, 05:14:26 pm »


The funny part about this seat is that whoever wins it in 2020 could end up being the underdog to hold it in 2022.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2019, 07:53:41 pm »


The funny part about this seat is that whoever wins it in 2020 could end up being the underdog to hold it in 2022.

Nope, Dems can win the Govs chair in 2022; the Senate races will follow Gov races. IL, WI, PA, NV, AZ all have D Govs and D Senate races coincide with each other. Except for AZ
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2019, 08:26:32 pm »


Because the only way she wins is if Trump wins.

I agree. If McSally loses next year, her political career will be over. She won't be touched with a ten-foot pole after two consecutive Senatorial defeats. It amazes me how rapidly Arizona seems to be shifting into the Democratic column. I wonder what role the John McCain camp of Republicans are playing in this transformation.

It could still be her last senate race. The only way Republicans keep that seat in another Republican midterm is that they run against themselves. They only do that by replacing her.

This much is true. I didn't think about 2022.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2019, 12:54:01 pm »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Emerson College on 2019-10-28

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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