AZ-Emerson: Kelly +1

[MT Treasurer]

46% Mark Kelly (D)
45% Martha McSally (R, inc.)

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/arizona-2020-toss-ups-in-presidential-and-senate-races

[MT Treasurer]

^I think it’s more likely than not that McSally underperforms Trump, even if only slightly. It’s not exactly looking good for her.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't buy the Atlas CW that there are going to be legions of Trump/Kelly voters. It doesn't really make any sense. Because McSally lost an election 2 years ago? Yeah, I'm sure that's going to sway many votes.

This will likely track the presidential race pretty closely.

I don’t think anyone believes that there will be legions of Trump/Kelly voters, but there don’t have to be that many of them for her to lose. Even a slight underperformance would spell doom for McSally.

[MT Treasurer]

STRONG CANDIDATE Kelly LANDSLIDES WEAK INCUMBENT McSally OUT OF OFFICE.

You’re awfully confident that this couldn’t possibly be better than a Tossup for Democrats, so where exactly is McSally going to do significantly better in 2020 compared to her last race?

[MT Treasurer]

I didn't imply anything about confidence. It was just a sh**tpost mocking people who believe strong/weak candidates make a huge difference in today's environment.

Obviously the assessment of "candidate quality" is pretty much always hilariously subjective (which a lot of people here fail to understand), but you could argue that it certainly makes a difference even in today's environment. MO-SEN 2016, KS-SEN 2014, IA-04 2018, and WV-SEN 2018 all should have been easy Republican wins if fundamentals were the only thing that mattered. And we’re not even talking about deep red territory here, but about a state where McSally really cannot afford to underperform Trump at all.