UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Coastal Elitist]

Finished map of Great Britain. Great job, DaWN.

Does anyone have numbers for this predictions? Seems to look like a narrow Tory majority/plurality but I'm not sure

I got
Con: 12+23+22+21+36+38+8+53+47+75+22 = 357
Lab: 1+6+52+32+10+21+27+4+6+6+47 = 212
LibDem: 5+1+1+2+1+2+2+4 = 18
SNP: 41
Green: 1
PC: 2

[morgieb]

Finished map of Great Britain. Great job, DaWN.

Does anyone have numbers for this predictions? Seems to look like a narrow Tory majority/plurality but I'm not sure

I got
Con: 12+23+22+21+36+38+8+53+47+75+22 = 357
Lab: 1+6+52+32+10+21+27+4+6+6+47 = 212
LibDem: 5+1+1+2+1+2+2+4 = 18
SNP: 41
Green: 1
PC: 2

Depressing. Sadly I can't really disagree with much at this point either. Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

[Pericles]

Only 18 for the LibDems and only 41 for the SNP would be surprising, but the overall result makes sense.

[DaWN]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

[Pericles]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Didn't the gap only really close in the second half of the 2017 campaign after both parties released their manifestos?

[cp]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Didn't the gap only really close in the second half of the 2017 campaign after both parties released their manifestos?

It was a pretty steady climb throughout the campaign. People only took notice in the last two weeks because Labour finally got within striking distance of the Tories. I think they may have had the lead in one or two polls within a week of E-day.

[LabourJersey]

Doesn't 10 Scotland seats for the Tories seems pretty optimistic for them? I was under the impression that Boris is incredibly unpopular in Scotland, close to what Thatcher was.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Manifestoes aren't even out yet, that is the traditional "lift off" point in an election campaign.

(on that topic, reported the Tory one might not emerge until the end of the month - what's that all about?)

[Oryxslayer]

Doesn't 10 Scotland seats for the Tories seems pretty optimistic for them? I was under the impression that Boris is incredibly unpopular in Scotland, close to what Thatcher was.

There are multiple opinions on this. First, if the tories get tied to brexit hard and have a poor Scottish campaign then they are going down to four seats that should be held barring retirement. The other option is if being for/against IndyRef2 becomes the sole focus of the Scottish campaigns, then Tory incumbents are naturally going to hold up better than swing models say. The unionist vote in Scotland has demonstrated far greater ease with voting tactically, and an incumbent is an easy target to rally around. In both scenarios unionist tactical voting will also benefit other parties.

[DaWN]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Manifestoes aren't even out yet, that is the traditional "lift off" point in an election campaign.

(on that topic, reported the Tory one might not emerge until the end of the month - what's that all about?)

Absolutely true of course (hence 'long way to go') but I'm not sure why a manifesto release would halt Labour's propensity for putting its foot in it that it has demonstrated over the last week or so. Of course, Boris has hardly proven himself to be Blair circa-97, but unlike Corbyn, he doesn't have to be.

Again, long way to go though.

Doesn't 10 Scotland seats for the Tories seems pretty optimistic for them? I was under the impression that Boris is incredibly unpopular in Scotland, close to what Thatcher was.

I'm sure Boris is despised in Scotland overall but where he'll really be hated (Edinburgh, Glasgow and the rest of the central belt) is where the Tories will be walloped. I'm not sure that will lead to problems for them in seats that are well off and/or rural and/or voted leave. It was a quirk of pre-2015 Scotland that they weren't Tory in the first place. Obviously they (mostly) aren't safe though, given the SNP (snake oil salesmen they are) have more strength than Labour would should those seats be English.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just need to hope that Corbynmentum happens again.

I think it's safe to say Labour have not been running as disciplined and effective a campaign as last time so far. There is a long way to go though.

Manifestoes aren't even out yet, that is the traditional "lift off" point in an election campaign.

(on that topic, reported the Tory one might not emerge until the end of the month - what's that all about?)

Absolutely true of course (hence 'long way to go') but I'm not sure why a manifesto release would halt Labour's propensity for putting its foot in it that it has demonstrated over the last week or so. Of course, Boris has hardly proven himself to be Blair circa-97, but unlike Corbyn, he doesn't have to be.

Can't say I have noticed this much, save for some dubiously media hyped "incidents".

(and there were certainly those in the 2017 campaign as well)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour's campaign was pretty ropey at the start of the 2017 GE as well, and the government's poll leads were mountainous - much bigger than presently. Calm and order only turned up after the Unite leadership election ended.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Electoral Calculus with the Brexit stand down reduces the Tory loses in Scotland to 2, leaving them with 11.   It is predicting Scottish Labour’s worst run in a 100 year with the retention of only Edinburgh South.

[MillennialModerate]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

Things can change in a month...but if the election were held today BoJo waltz's back into Number 10.What everyone knows though is that these numbers likely won't be final, a month is a long time. This election uniquely has a lot of potential energy trapped, that can push the election in a thousand and one different directions when it erupts. Which direction is what everyone's scared and arguing about.

[brucejoel99]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

I'm nothing close to an overly optimistic lefty & I think it ends up being another hung parliament, purely on the basis of a gut feeling that BoJo is definitely gonna manage to bungle up the Tory campaign. The only caveat is that I think the Tories lose just enough seats where they can't form a government even if they have the DUP's backing (which, in all likelihood, they won't), & Labour/SNP/Lib Dems/Plaid/Greens win just enough seats where they can form a very shaky minority government, one that won't last the year, but that will last long enough to call a summer referendum (& then, after that, another election toward the end of the year).

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

This is far from decided (the campaign hasn't really started yet, even) and anyone who claims otherwise is a sucker. Tory leads of 7-8% in the latest polls btw - not exactly a "waltz" on those figures even now, still less so if "strategic" anti-Tory voting takes off.   

[Antonio the Sixth]

Everybody agrees the Tories will have the most seats. The question is if they'll have a majority or not.

[Pericles]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

You'd have to be an idiot to treat any poll lead as an inevitable victory in British politics nowadays.

[brucejoel99]

So, I'm gonna go out on a limb here & offer my two (admittedly, pretty early) predictions (so, almost both are guaranteed to be wrong), one for my head & one for my heart.

My head's prediction: Tory majority, WA Bill approved, & Brexit happens with BoJo's deal on January 31st.
Conservative: 339
Labour: 228
Liberal Democrats: 19
SNP: 41
DUP: 11
Sinn Féin: 7
Plaid Cymru: 3
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Brexit: 0

My heart's prediction: A very shaky Labour minority government that won't last the year, but that will manage to last long enough to call a summer referendum (& then, after that, another election toward the end of the year).
Labour: 304
Conservative: 275
Liberal Democrats: 21
SNP: 29
DUP: 11
Sinn Féin: 7
Plaid Cymru: 1
Green: 1
Speaker: 1
Brexit: 0

[LabourJersey]

This is going to be horrendously wrong but here goes:

Tories: 333 seats
Labour: 221
Scottish Nats: 45
LibDems: 26
DUP: 9
SF: 7
Plaid: 4
Alliance: 2
Greens: 1
Ind: 2 (Speaker's seat and Anna Soubry)

So basically a Tory majority of about 17

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Here goes nothing:

Great Britain:
Tories: 343
Labour: 203
SNP: 48
Lib Dems: 30
PC: 4
Independents: 3 (includes Speaker)
Greens: 1
Brexit: 0

Northern Ireland:
DUP: 10
(SF: 6)
SDLP: 1
Alliance: 1

There’s enough incumbent independents that I feel that there will be at least two that aren’t the Speaker. I will be quoting this and updating as the race goes on. At this rate, I’d say Swindon and Johnson will stay as leaders, with Corbyn stepping down.

[TWTown]

Unpopular prediction but I am going with a Labour Maj of 5 seats

[Walmart_shopper]

Is there anyone who isn’t an overly optimistic lefty that doesn’t think this is a Tory win?

Is there anyone who doesn't understand that early campaign poll leads for the Tories mean very little when it comes to the final election results?

[CumbrianLefty]

At the moment the Tories are well placed, but they may have played their last best card - the "let's eat up as much of the Brexit Party as we can" one.

The fact they intend to release their manifesto so late (just two weeks before the GE, almost unheard of in previous campaigns) suggest it is going to be a damage limitation exercise after the folk memory of 2017, not an inspiring programme that will sweep the board.