Final Gubernatorial Predictions

[Xing]

I really don't feel confident about predicting this race. Not just because I got KY wrong, but because it really does seem like it's a test as to whether partisanship or personal popularity (for JBE) is a stronger force. Edwards is quite popular, but it's not clear whether or not he's quite popular enough to overcome how Republican Louisiana is, especially against an opponent who isn't as damaged as Vitter. I think this race will be quite close (within 3%), but I'm not even 100% confident about that.

My final guess is:

Edwards - 50.5%
Rispone - 49.5%

Tilt D

A narrow Rispone win wouldn't surprise me, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Edwards 50.7%
Rispone 49.3%

I think the strong EV will be just enough, but it's clear at this point after all the new polls this week that JBE hasn't put this away.   

[MT Treasurer]

My predictions have been truly terrible this year, so this probably means Congrats Gov. Rispone:

51.2% John Bel Edwards (D, inc.)
48.8% Eddie Rispone (R)

Tossup/Tilt D

[OBD]

I'm going to go Edwards 50.4%-Rispone 49.6%

[Gracile]

Rispone (R) 50.2%
Edwards (D-inc) 49.8%

Narrowing this slightly from my previous prediction. I could be wrong, but I still think Rispone has a chance. I expect a close race either way.

[morgieb]

JBE: 51%
Rispone: 49%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rispone 51-49. I may still change this up until poll closings. Definitely will be wanting to see how election day is going.

[Unimog]

JBE 53
Rispone 47

Only far out predictions make you look cool.....

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

now expect this to be closer

Louisiana:

Edwards  51.3  50.3
Rispone   48.7  49.7

[Horus]

Rispone 50.2
Edwards 49.8

[Bidenworth2020]

now expect this to be closer

Louisiana:

Edwards  51.3  50.3
Rispone   48.7  49.7

Let me guess, it was the Duke ad that literally was only heard in Nola. OK.

[Mr. Smith]

Rispone 50.6
Edwards 49.2

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

now expect this to be closer

Louisiana:

Edwards  51.3  50.3
Rispone   48.7  49.7

Let me guess, it was the Duke ad that literally was only heard in Nola. OK.

Why do you insist on sticking with this ridiculous claim that its completely unknown to anyone even while Rispone is airing ads about it? 

[Bidenworth2020]

now expect this to be closer

Louisiana:

Edwards  51.3  50.3
Rispone   48.7  49.7

Let me guess, it was the Duke ad that literally was only heard in Nola. OK.

Why do you insist on sticking with this ridiculous claim that its completely unknown to anyone even while Rispone is airing ads about it? 

Generally, ads that run hours before people vote arent very effective.

[MT Treasurer]

My predictions have been truly terrible this year, so this probably means Congrats Gov. Rispone:

51.2% John Bel Edwards (D, inc.)
48.8% Eddie Rispone (R)

Tossup/Tilt D

I believe this is what we call compensation.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

This was my county prediction map. Green counties are ones that I guessed incorrectly. Yikes.

[ElectionsGuy]

now expect this to be closer

Louisiana:

Edwards  51.3  50.3
Rispone   48.7  49.7

Damn, had it exactly right the first time.

Congrats to Adam Griffin too, who got it exactly right to the decimal point.