USA Today / Suffolk Poll : Trump leads a generic D 41/39
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  USA Today / Suffolk Poll : Trump leads a generic D 41/39		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: USA Today / Suffolk Poll : Trump leads a generic D 41/39  (Read 1341 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: October 30, 2019, 03:18:38 PM »
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Cinemark
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2019, 03:21:11 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2019, 03:29:32 PM by Cinemark »
Thats pretty par for the course with Suffolk:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332184.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=322420.0
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2019, 03:22:44 PM »
They continue with their 20% third party/undecided findings.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2019, 03:22:53 PM »
Also :

Trump approval 46/52
CGV 43/42 D
Partisan preference for the control of the Congress : 46 D / 46 R
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Cinemark
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2019, 03:28:43 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 30, 2019, 03:22:44 PM
They continue with their 20% third party/undecided findings.

I'm not sure why they dont just poll individual candidates at this point. Theres no reason to poll "Generic Democrat" at this stage when we have an obvious top 4.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2019, 03:39:25 PM »
A 2 point win in the popular vote for President probably means a loss for the Democrat.
A 1 point win in the congressional popular vote almost certainly means the Democrats lose the House.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2019, 03:46:51 PM »
I think we can safely junk this poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2019, 04:19:50 PM »
Any poll that shows double digits for an unknown/unnamed independent candidate should be thrown to the trash.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2019, 05:06:42 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 30, 2019, 03:46:51 PM
I think we can safely junk this poll.

No way Trump leads, Biden
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super6646
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2019, 09:57:19 PM »
Too many undecided.
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brand_allen
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2019, 06:54:40 PM »
For what it's worth, Trump's job approval rating pretty regularly exceeds his national average in Suffolk Univ. polling, at least in polling this year:

Oct 23-26 poll: 46/52%
Aug 20-25 poll: 44/54%
Jun 11-15 poll: 49/48%
Mar 13-17 poll: 48/49%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2019, 05:45:43 AM »
Yeah... as soon as i saw that Trump's approval was 46/52 I knew this was junk.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2019, 06:25:37 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2019, 05:45:43 AM
Yeah... as soon as i saw that Trump's approval was 46/52 I knew this was junk.

Well, these numbers are still far more plausible than those of Quinnipiac (38/58) and most people on this forum consider Quinnipiac as a very reliable pollster
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2019, 06:31:03 AM »
As long Trump is stuck in the mid-40's hes gonna lose; as a result, Obama and Bush W recovered just in time to 50% when election time came. Impeachment and the focus on Trump not paying his taxes and tax cuts for millionaires dont work, Trump will lose
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2019, 07:15:08 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on November 01, 2019, 06:25:37 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2019, 05:45:43 AM
Yeah... as soon as i saw that Trump's approval was 46/52 I knew this was junk.

Well, these numbers are still far more plausible than those of Quinnipiac (38/58) and most people on this forum consider Quinnipiac as a very reliable pollster

Suffolk and Quinnipiac are almost mirror images of each other.  They're both university pollsters that are quite good, although not of the very top rank IMO.  Quinnipiac has a D lean while Suffolk has an R lean.  Average the two, and the result will probably be close to reality.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2019, 08:44:16 AM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on November 01, 2019, 06:25:37 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2019, 05:45:43 AM
Yeah... as soon as i saw that Trump's approval was 46/52 I knew this was junk.

Well, these numbers are still far more plausible than those of Quinnipiac (38/58) and most people on this forum consider Quinnipiac as a very reliable pollster

Not really, since 538 currently have Trump's approval at -13.5%. So Quinnipiac is closer to that average.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2019, 06:18:19 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 01, 2019, 07:15:08 AM
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on November 01, 2019, 06:25:37 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 01, 2019, 05:45:43 AM
Yeah... as soon as i saw that Trump's approval was 46/52 I knew this was junk.

Well, these numbers are still far more plausible than those of Quinnipiac (38/58) and most people on this forum consider Quinnipiac as a very reliable pollster

Suffolk and Quinnipiac are almost mirror images of each other.  They're both university pollsters that are quite good, although not of the very top rank IMO.  Quinnipiac has a D lean while Suffolk has an R lean.  Average the two, and the result will probably be close to reality.

You're right. An average of these two polls yiels 42-55, which is almost exactly the 538 margin.

I'll be following that tip in future, thanks GeorgiaModerate.
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brand_allen
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2019, 01:32:07 PM »
I think it's interesting that we have six "gold standard" pollsters with pretty different takes on Trump's popularity.

The new Fox News poll has Trump at 42/57%. Fifty-seven percent disapproval matches his all time high in a Fox News poll. The new ABC/WaPo has him at 39/59%, an all-time high disapproval rating among registered voters in an ABC/WaPo poll. Quinnipiac has him at 38/58%

Meanwhile, you have Suffolk putting Trump at 46/52% approval/disapproval, Selzer & Co. putting him at 43/51%, and NBC/WSJ finding him at 45/53%.
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