Was 2004 the only time in history when VA and WV had a similar chance to go Dem
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  Was 2004 the only time in history when VA and WV had a similar chance to go Dem
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Author Topic: Was 2004 the only time in history when VA and WV had a similar chance to go Dem  (Read 1276 times)
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Computer89
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« on: October 30, 2019, 11:08:38 PM »

From 1868-1944: Virginia was clearly more Democratic than West Virginia
From 1948-2000: West Virginia was clearly more Democratic than Virginia
From 2008-Present: Virginia is once again clearly more Democratic than West Virginia


While in 2004 I would say VA and WV had a pretty similar chance of voting Dem
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2019, 11:28:36 PM »

They were pretty close in 1956.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2019, 11:43:48 PM »

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Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2019, 01:48:54 AM »


Not really IKE won WV by 9 points and VA by 17 which is an 8 point difference. Also a 9 point gap in WV is more like a 4-5 point gap in VA due to how much larger VA is compared to WV.



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morgankingsley
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2019, 03:24:19 AM »

Not related to the question at hand, but I always wonder what made Virginia go republican so fast? I mean, it was the second southern state to really resoundingly reject the democrats, the first being florida, but unlike Florida where there were several elections which it did either go democrat or at least was a swing state, Virginia was TITANIUM republican from Fifty Two to O Eight, with only LBJ winning out of those bunch, and only Carter his first time getting even close -one of the elections I mentioned above where Florida did go Dem-, and was the only southern state decided by less than ten percent. I just find it so odd how that one took such a Republican turn so fast compared to the others, which took decades to fully reject the democrat platform
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2019, 07:36:33 AM »

Not related to the question at hand, but I always wonder what made Virginia go republican so fast? I mean, it was the second southern state to really resoundingly reject the democrats, the first being florida, but unlike Florida where there were several elections which it did either go democrat or at least was a swing state, Virginia was TITANIUM republican from Fifty Two to O Eight, with only LBJ winning out of those bunch, and only Carter his first time getting even close -one of the elections I mentioned above where Florida did go Dem-, and was the only southern state decided by less than ten percent. I just find it so odd how that one took such a Republican turn so fast compared to the others, which took decades to fully reject the democrat platform
The same thing that now made it go so Democrat today
NOVA. Also the shenandoah of course
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Computer89
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2019, 11:14:29 AM »

Not related to the question at hand, but I always wonder what made Virginia go republican so fast? I mean, it was the second southern state to really resoundingly reject the democrats, the first being florida, but unlike Florida where there were several elections which it did either go democrat or at least was a swing state, Virginia was TITANIUM republican from Fifty Two to O Eight, with only LBJ winning out of those bunch, and only Carter his first time getting even close -one of the elections I mentioned above where Florida did go Dem-, and was the only southern state decided by less than ten percent. I just find it so odd how that one took such a Republican turn so fast compared to the others, which took decades to fully reject the democrat platform
The same thing that now made it go so Democrat today
NOVA. Also the shenandoah of course


Not really

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/GVS2017071301-chart1.png
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mianfei
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« Reply #7 on: January 06, 2020, 11:13:40 PM »

1928 the two were very similar, although the shock was VA going Republican due to middle-class urban voting and anti-Catholicism in the Chesapeake Bay peninsulas (e.g. in Mathews and Northumberland counties)

1888 the two were also very similar, although this was the last election before mass disenfranchisement in VA
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2020, 09:37:23 AM »

Hypothetically, if Hillary was the nominee in 2008 she might have been able to win WV while VA would be less Dem. However of the actual elections it does seem like 2004 was unique in this regard.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2020, 12:01:55 PM »


Not really IKE won WV by 9 points and VA by 17 which is an 8 point difference. Also a 9 point gap in WV is more like a 4-5 point gap in VA due to how much larger VA is compared to WV.





Well, back in the 50s, WV cast more votes than VA so the second half isn't correct but yes, they really weren't closely aligned.
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« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2020, 01:30:23 PM »


Not really IKE won WV by 9 points and VA by 17 which is an 8 point difference. Also a 9 point gap in WV is more like a 4-5 point gap in VA due to how much larger VA is compared to WV.





Well, back in the 50s, WV cast more votes than VA so the second half isn't correct but yes, they really weren't closely aligned.

Was Jim Crow that bad in VA , I thought VA was not as bad as the Deep South on the issue
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2020, 01:33:34 PM »


Not really IKE won WV by 9 points and VA by 17 which is an 8 point difference. Also a 9 point gap in WV is more like a 4-5 point gap in VA due to how much larger VA is compared to WV.





Well, back in the 50s, WV cast more votes than VA so the second half isn't correct but yes, they really weren't closely aligned.

Was Jim Crow that bad in VA , I thought VA was not as bad as the Deep South on the issue

VA is the Deep South Smiley

But yes, "Byrdian Democracy" was just as bad as anything going on in MS and AL, with additional lower-class Whites being disenfranchised as well.
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« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2020, 04:26:26 PM »

Not related to the question at hand, but I always wonder what made Virginia go republican so fast? I mean, it was the second southern state to really resoundingly reject the democrats, the first being florida, but unlike Florida where there were several elections which it did either go democrat or at least was a swing state, Virginia was TITANIUM republican from Fifty Two to O Eight, with only LBJ winning out of those bunch, and only Carter his first time getting even close -one of the elections I mentioned above where Florida did go Dem-, and was the only southern state decided by less than ten percent. I just find it so odd how that one took such a Republican turn so fast compared to the others, which took decades to fully reject the democrat platform
The same thing that now made it go so Democrat today
NOVA. Also the shenandoah of course


Not really

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/GVS2017071301-chart1.png

Odd to have a chart comparing partisan strength in Virginia that starts in '68, since the margin figure between D and R for that year is misleading, esp for "Rest of VA."   The most traditionally Democratic part of the state - rural Southside i.e. south of the James & where the influence of the Byrd org was strongest - is where first Goldwater and then Wallace did best. 
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