North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Here's where the map stands right now at the end of the day. Of course  work will still continue but...this map is somehow worse then the previous preliminary one!

- Cracked Sandhills
- Separated Greensboro/Winston-Salem
- Raleigh seat that goes beyond Wake
- Parallel central districts
- First missing Greenville (they want to protect the  incumbent)
- No Boone for the 11th
- Johnson to Wilmington was clearly an option but it was dropped to carve up the sandhill region
- Seats are renumbered going E -> W, but this 4 and 7...

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

If this style of map ends up as the final product, I suspect we will get the courts or special masters involved. The GOP employed their traditional "support AA caucus, lessen overall dem power" when drawing the state legislative maps. This plus their appeasement of all the urban legislatures with unpacked seats meant they could get away with maps that locked in the barest of majorities. This won't happen for the congressional map. In every possible way, the map posted at the end of today discriminates against AA Dem voters.

This is really not a bad map overall.

It is a horrendous map.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You know why they want to keep stretching out the districts right?


The more media markets, the more money it takes to compete in them, the more power the state GOP's big money donors have.


It also bakes in a GOP incumbent advantage beyond what the nominal top lines would suggest.


Edit: Also, Dowless could never have stolen a compact 9th, because that county wouldn't have been in it. The more counties, the more opportunities for these crooks to steal elections in some obscure county.

[Vern]

Here's where the map stands right now at the end of the day. Of course  work will still continue but...this map is somehow worse then the previous preliminary one!

- Cracked Sandhills
- Separated Greensboro/Winston-Salem
- Raleigh seat that goes beyond Wake
- Parallel central districts
- First missing Greenville (they want to protect the  incumbent)
- No Boone for the 11th
- Johnson to Wilmington was clearly an option but it was dropped to carve up the sandhill region
- Seats are renumbered going E -> W, but this 4 and 7...

According to Stephan Wolfe, the GOP did something similar to that NC state senator from last time and whispered for half an hour while they carved up that neat sandhill seat you posted Nyvin.

If this style of map ends up as the final product, I suspect we will get the courts or special masters involved. The GOP employed their traditional "support AA caucus, lessen overall dem power" when drawing the state legislative maps. This plus their appeasement of all the urban legislatures with unpacked seats meant they could get away with maps that locked in the barest of majorities. This won't happen for the congressional map. In every possible way, the map posted at the end of today discriminates against AA Dem voters.

This is really not a bad map overall.

It is a horrendous map.

I mean there are things I don't like a lot about this map, but this is a better map than what we currently have. Plus, all of this will change before 2022.

[Oryxslayer]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

[Nyvin]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

[Tintrlvr]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

[Vern]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.

[Nyvin]

Going by the Republican Map and the Democrat Map,  it's pretty clear we'll end up with something in the 8R-5D or 7R-5D-1s range.   

Sandhills area (Current NC-8 and NC-9 area) is the issue of contention mostly, along with maybe small issues with NC-1 going into the triangle.

[Sol]

It seems like everyone wants to keep Greensboro and Winston-Salem separate for whatever reason, so why not do the concise 3 county Guilford-Alamance-Rockingham district?

[Nyvin]

It seems like everyone wants to keep Greensboro and Winston-Salem separate for whatever reason, so why not do the concise 3 county Guilford-Alamance-Rockingham district?

That would be great on it's own, but then what do you do with Caswell and Person?

I agree I really like that district though.  Alamance fits with Guilford way better than Randolph does.

The interest in the parties (both Republican and Democrat) isn't there to combine Forsyth and Guilford.   They don't want the Metros to compete against each other for the district.

[Sol]

It seems like everyone wants to keep Greensboro and Winston-Salem separate for whatever reason, so why not do the concise 3 county Guilford-Alamance-Rockingham district?

That would be great on it's own, but then what do you do with Caswell and Person?

I agree I really like that district though.  Alamance fits with Guilford way better than Randolph does.

The interest in the parties (both Republican and Democrat) isn't there to combine Forsyth and Guilford.   They don't want the Metros to compete against each other for the district.

Person and Caswell could go with Orange and Durham counties.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like everyone wants to keep Greensboro and Winston-Salem separate for whatever reason, so why not do the concise 3 county Guilford-Alamance-Rockingham district?

That would be great on it's own, but then what do you do with Caswell and Person?

I agree I really like that district though.  Alamance fits with Guilford way better than Randolph does.

The interest in the parties (both Republican and Democrat) isn't there to combine Forsyth and Guilford.   They don't want the Metros to compete against each other for the district.

Well, the parties may not have the will, but the courts and their masters might, and I have to say that if what we currently got is similar to what ends up passing, they will be 100% making some edits. Whats going on in the east of the state in every map is just inviting them to say 'nope, you tired and failed.'

[Sol]

It seems like Democrats want to make sure that the Raleigh district wouldn't be competitive also?

[Tintrlvr]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.

How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I think Forsyth/Guildford should be kept seperate as each of them are large enough for their own COI but when faced against each other Guilford would usually win.

[Vern]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.

How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

Because if you pack all the dems in one district you get a super dem district and a super Rep district. But if you split it, you will get a Moderate dem district and a Winnable other district.

[Vern]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.

How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

Because if you pack all the dems in one district you get a super dem district and a super Rep district. But if you split it, you will get a Moderate dem district and a Winnable other district.

So in after the 2020 census when NC adds a district you can make this map.



The Purple district is even and all the others are Dem districts. But if you packed the dems in like you said to, you wouldn't be able to make this map.

[cvparty]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.

How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

Because if you pack all the dems in one district you get a super dem district and a super Rep district. But if you split it, you will get a Moderate dem district and a Winnable other district.

So in after the 2020 census when NC adds a district you can make this map.



The Purple district is even and all the others are Dem districts. But if you packed the dems in like you said to, you wouldn't be able to make this map.

that district makes me uncomfortable

[Vern]

NC senate Dems map. They keep the Stupid 7th, the 6th and the 4th could probably do with an internal reshuffle, Greensboro/W-S of course, and I personally would have cut Wayne to boost NC01's AAVAP.

Me and NC Dems are on the same page,  looks very similar to mine again.

The only thing I really dislike here is keeping Forsyth and Guilford in separate districts, which, why? I don't love Johnston with Wilmington, or Watauga with Asheville, but those are not the end of the world.

They are thinking ahead for next year when we gain a seat.

How does that make a difference? You still won't be able to draw a Democratic or even particularly competitive seat including Forsyth County without Guilford County, as Forsyth is smaller, less Democratic and, other than Guilford, surrounded by ultra-Republican counties.

Because if you pack all the dems in one district you get a super dem district and a super Rep district. But if you split it, you will get a Moderate dem district and a Winnable other district.

So in after the 2020 census when NC adds a district you can make this map.



The Purple district is even and all the others are Dem districts. But if you packed the dems in like you said to, you wouldn't be able to make this map.

that district makes me uncomfortable

why is that?

[Nyvin]

First time I've seen it on the live feed,  apparently it is being considered!

[Sol]

Well it's not impossible to draw a Triad district which would be a fair fight between both cities:

This map cuts out High Point

This map cuts out the suburbs instead (better CoI fit)

[Oryxslayer]

First time I've seen it on the live feed,  apparently it is being considered!

I suspect the reason why it never showed up on the previous maps was less because of metro pop density and instead because Ted Budd lives right on the border. Guess whoever is at the desk is throwing him away.

[Sol]

First time I've seen it on the live feed,  apparently it is being considered!

Still has the ugly Union-Sandhills thing though. Personally I'd much rather have a proper Sandhills district that a Winston-Salem and Greensboro district--the former is an obvious thing while the latter is more of a judgement call.

[Sol]

First time I've seen it on the live feed,  apparently it is being considered!

I suspect the reason why it never showed up on the previous maps was less because of metro pop density and instead because Ted Budd lives right on the border. Guess whoever is at the desk is throwing him away.

Not a great map for Virginia Foxx either; she gets double-bunked with Patrick McHenry when he's represented more of that area.

Plus Foxx kind of has an anti-personal vote.

[Nyvin]

This is a map on there too, rofl



Maybe someone there is reading this forum...