North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Storr]

This is a map on there too, rofl



Maybe someone there is reading this forum...

Dear God....
I hate "stringy" districts, even if the district strings whole counties together. It's no old 1990s/2000s 12th District, but please....just no.

[Storr]

Guys....I'm sure no one would be upset at splitting Mecklenburg and Wake Counties, right? Whatever the folks are smoking at computer 1, I need some.
But, at least they eliminated the two Charlotte suburbs to Sandhills "fajita" strips.

[Vern]

I don’t understand why they are doing like 30 maps.. hha

[OBD]

What do you guys think about this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d1ce6b90-6e65-4b09-a69e-7567801509f1

It's a 5D-7R-1T map that doesn't look too ugly.

[lfromnj]

My map LOL
super ugly


FYI not a gerrymander for any party. Its a gerrymander for competitive districts. I don't think it will h ap
4 Safe D, 4 Safe R, 5 Tossups

Safe Ds are red Charlotte, NE black 42% district, Northern Wake+part of Raleigh and Greensboro.
Safe R is the western Asheville District., Pink district and Western Charlotteburbs
Tossups
Yellow Charlotte. Trump +0.7. Takes in a larger part of Mecklenburg because the red district takes in less of Charlotte because it takes Cabarrus county. and stops just before Robeson and doesn't take any part of Cumberland county. Dan Mcready would have ran here and would easily won here either year maybe even by double digits.


Wilmington-Fayetville, takes all of Fayetville and Robeson and moves east to Wilmington. As all of New Hanover can't be in it I take the blue parts of Wilmington which keeps it competetive at Clinton +0.2

I took the idea of using Winston Salem and dragging it around to Durham. Clinton +0.7. Tossup once again.
Part of Raleigh and south east = another tossup at Trump +0.4
The most contraversial part is taking exurbs/rurals in central NC which are super red and mixing it with lean blue Chatham and the deep blue Chapel Hill/Durham to make a pure tossup district at +1.

I guess in general COI are somewhat preserved but it isn't really the best when considering COI especially in the triad region.

[Oryxslayer]

Okay, I think I somehow found the perfect map for NC. There is still going to be problems, but I think this is the least worst. The bullet that NC-03 bites in this scenario is far less deadly than anything currently being drawn for the west by those in Raleigh, and it improves on my map upthread. It also takes  into consideration the wishes of various NC residents I have seen here and on twitter.



7-6 R/D, but the Sandhills seat is less than safe and the Ashville seat is weird.

Perks of the map:
- There's a Sandhills Seat.
- Johnston county is in the 'catch all' 3rd rather than in a seat with a base.
- Chatham cut into the parts more  congruent with each neighbor.
- Greensboro/W-S/High Point seat
- Ashville + Boone
- Iredell cut N/S, separating the suburbs to be paired with the  other Charlotte suburban 10th.
- Raleigh is wholly in the 4th,it only loses the northern suburbs, wake forest, and western AA communities outside the city.

Now the 7th/3rd border may not be your cup of tea, I get that Duplin sticks out. So here's a alternative version that adds a cut.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1192232580008964096

Also it seems like the GOP is accepting an 8-5 map at the least?

Unless they are gonna try to save another seat to a 9-4.

They would have to be stupid to try a 10-3

[Vern]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1192232580008964096

Also it seems like the GOP is accepting an 8-5 map at the least?

Unless they are gonna try to save another seat to a 9-4.

They would have to be stupid to try a 10-3

CD-3 in that map would be a toss-up so it would be 7-5-1

[Vern]

This is a good map I just made.

1,3,6,12 and 13 are safe D; 2,4,5,7,8,10 and 11 are safe R; 9 is Toss-up

[cvparty]

i think this is probably the best map you can get with respect to communities of interest and compactness




edit: i like this one more 'cause it keeps pittsboro with chapel hill

[Vern]

Any map that puts two incumbents into the same districts will not happen. That is one of the rules they have.

[West_Midlander]

Any map that puts two incumbents into the same districts will not happen. That is one of the rules they have.

Well, Holding and Ellmers were redistricted into one district and he defeated her in a primary (this is my district, NC-02).

The only other notable example I can think of is when state Republicans districted Kucinich and Kaptur into one district and Kaptur won.

It happens.

[Vern]

Any map that puts two incumbents into the same districts will not happen. That is one of the rules they have.

Well Holding was districted into Ellmer's district and defeated her in a primary (this is my district, NC-02).

The only other notable example I can think of is when state Republicans districted Kucinich and Kaptur into one district and Kaptur won.

It happens.

https://twitter.com/democracync/status/1191846143119917059?s=20

this list the rules and one of them are they are trying to not pair people.

[Vern]

This is more than likely what we will end up with.

[West_Midlander]

Any map that puts two incumbents into the same districts will not happen. That is one of the rules they have.

Well Holding was districted into Ellmer's district and defeated her in a primary (this is my district, NC-02).

The only other notable example I can think of is when state Republicans districted Kucinich and Kaptur into one district and Kaptur won.

It happens.

https://twitter.com/democracync/status/1191846143119917059?s=20

this list the rules and one of them are they are trying to not pair people.

I was unaware of this. My bad.

[Nyvin]

This is more than likely what we will end up with.

Based on what?

[Vern]

This is more than likely what we will end up with.

Based on what?

Oh this is just a rough estimate

[Oryxslayer]

Any map that puts two incumbents into the same districts will not happen. That is one of the rules they have.

Well Holding was districted into Ellmer's district and defeated her in a primary (this is my district, NC-02).

The only other notable example I can think of is when state Republicans districted Kucinich and Kaptur into one district and Kaptur won.

It happens.

https://twitter.com/democracync/status/1191846143119917059?s=20

this list the rules and one of them are they are trying to not pair people.

I was unaware of this. My bad.

If theres going to be a reason the court intervenes then, this will end up being it. Too many incumbents lives near each other, facilitated by bad maps of course, and there is a giant dead zone  incumbent-wise in the sandhills and Wilmington. It's a natural occurrence during redistricting that incumbents get paired up and drawn away, which is why there are always an unusual number of retirements around redistricting. PA got lucky 2 years age and a third of their delegation had already announced retirement because of the  incoming wave, so this gave everyone some empty districts and leeway room to maneuver with.

[Sol]

Perks of the map:
- There's a Sandhills Seat.
- Johnston county is in the 'catch all' 3rd rather than in a seat with a base.
- Chatham cut into the parts more  congruent with each neighbor.
- Greensboro/W-S/High Point seat
- Ashville + Boone
- Iredell cut N/S, separating the suburbs to be paired with the  other Charlotte suburban 10th.
- Raleigh is wholly in the 4th,it only loses the northern suburbs, wake forest, and western AA communities outside the city.

Wrt: Chatham County, it's worth noting that Pittsboro is also pretty oriented towards the Triangle. Central Chatham County is very similar to northern Orange County; it's oriented towards Chapel Hill and is a bunch of hippie agricultural communities and new urbanist development. A reasonable cut of Chatham is a little further west.

Again I don't necessarily think a Boone-Asheville district is necessary. People in Northwestern North Carolina get Charlotte and Johnson City TV and drive to Winston-Salem for shopping; Asheville is in the mountains, which is a commonality, but getting to Asheville from Boone is nearly a two hour drive over twisty mountain roads. They do have a fair amount in common and I'm not against a Mountains district which includes the High County and Asheville but there are other communities of interest which I think are more important.

Like the Unifour, for example.

[Vern]

What is going to be interesting to see is which republican congress members they try to save, and which one they put in a Democratic district. Also, if that congress person ends up jumping into the Governor race or Senate Race.

With the current map that they saved, Walker, Holding and Rouzer are all likely to be voted out, with Rouzer having the best chance at winning re-election. I could see him running again. But with Walker and Holding, I don't think they will. Walker could jump to another race.

[Brittain33]

What is going to be interesting to see is which republican congress members they try to save, and which one they put in a Democratic district. Also, if that congress person ends up jumping into the Governor race or Senate Race.

With the current map that they saved, Walker, Holding and Rouzer are all likely to be voted out, with Rouzer having the best chance at winning re-election. I could see him running again. But with Walker and Holding, I don't think they will. Walker could jump to another race.

Is there any likely map where Holding isn't doomed?

[Nyvin]

What is going to be interesting to see is which republican congress members they try to save, and which one they put in a Democratic district. Also, if that congress person ends up jumping into the Governor race or Senate Race.

With the current map that they saved, Walker, Holding and Rouzer are all likely to be voted out, with Rouzer having the best chance at winning re-election. I could see him running again. But with Walker and Holding, I don't think they will. Walker could jump to another race.

Is there any likely map where Holding isn't doomed?

Considering last time the maps were redrawn he just primaried Ellmers (and won...) and took her district,  I think he'll be fine.   My guess is he runs in whatever district ends up with Johnston.


Holding is a Trump Loyalist so he'll most likely win any GOP primary.

Ironically he also lives in Raleigh (in the current 4th district...).

[Oryxslayer]

Perks of the map:
- There's a Sandhills Seat.
- Johnston county is in the 'catch all' 3rd rather than in a seat with a base.
- Chatham cut into the parts more  congruent with each neighbor.
- Greensboro/W-S/High Point seat
- Ashville + Boone
- Iredell cut N/S, separating the suburbs to be paired with the  other Charlotte suburban 10th.
- Raleigh is wholly in the 4th,it only loses the northern suburbs, wake forest, and western AA communities outside the city.

Wrt: Chatham County, it's worth noting that Pittsboro is also pretty oriented towards the Triangle. Central Chatham County is very similar to northern Orange County; it's oriented towards Chapel Hill and is a bunch of hippie agricultural communities and new urbanist development. A reasonable cut of Chatham is a little further west.

Again I don't necessarily think a Boone-Asheville district is necessary. People in Northwestern North Carolina get Charlotte and Johnson City TV and drive to Winston-Salem for shopping; Asheville is in the mountains, which is a commonality, but getting to Asheville from Boone is nearly a two hour drive over twisty mountain roads. They do have a fair amount in common and I'm not against a Mountains district which includes the High County and Asheville but there are other communities of interest which I think are more important.

Like the Unifour, for example.

Quick Question:

Which do you think is better for Chatham, the version above or one like this:



If you haven't picked picked it up yet I tend to draw my district in groupings of counties, and ideally there is only limited cuts between said groups for pop - cuts for COI's are considered to be part of said group. In the map above, 8+10+13 are a group, 11+5+13+7+2 are a group, and 1+3+7+9 are  a group. 4 is nested  in Wake and not part of any group. So to get Chatham's cut pushed west we do a little 'circle motion' in the second grouping.

- Casewell goes into 5
- 5 drops some Guilford suburbs
- 13 picks up some of the northern dropped  suburbs, still retains all of Greensboro/W-S/High Point
- 7 takes the rest of the Guilford Suburbs
- 2 picks up central Chatham. The new cut's lines are decided purely by the pop within precincts, I would stick that bit near Alamance in 2 if I could.

[Sol]

Perks of the map:
- There's a Sandhills Seat.
- Johnston county is in the 'catch all' 3rd rather than in a seat with a base.
- Chatham cut into the parts more  congruent with each neighbor.
- Greensboro/W-S/High Point seat
- Ashville + Boone
- Iredell cut N/S, separating the suburbs to be paired with the  other Charlotte suburban 10th.
- Raleigh is wholly in the 4th,it only loses the northern suburbs, wake forest, and western AA communities outside the city.

Wrt: Chatham County, it's worth noting that Pittsboro is also pretty oriented towards the Triangle. Central Chatham County is very similar to northern Orange County; it's oriented towards Chapel Hill and is a bunch of hippie agricultural communities and new urbanist development. A reasonable cut of Chatham is a little further west.

Again I don't necessarily think a Boone-Asheville district is necessary. People in Northwestern North Carolina get Charlotte and Johnson City TV and drive to Winston-Salem for shopping; Asheville is in the mountains, which is a commonality, but getting to Asheville from Boone is nearly a two hour drive over twisty mountain roads. They do have a fair amount in common and I'm not against a Mountains district which includes the High County and Asheville but there are other communities of interest which I think are more important.

Like the Unifour, for example.

Quick Question:

Which do you think is better for Chatham, the version above or one like this:



If you haven't picked picked it up yet I tend to draw my district in groupings of counties, and ideally there is only limited cuts between said groups for pop - cuts for COI's are considered to be part of said group. In the map above, 8+10+13 are a group, 11+5+13+7+2 are a group, and 1+3+7+9 are  a group. 4 is nested  in Wake and not part of any group. So to get Chatham's cut pushed west we do a little 'circle motion' in the second grouping.

- Casewell goes into 5
- 5 drops some Guilford suburbs
- 13 picks up some of the northern dropped  suburbs, still retains all of Greensboro/W-S/High Point
- 7 takes the rest of the Guilford Suburbs
- 2 picks up central Chatham. The new cut's lines are decided purely by the pop within precincts, I would stick that bit near Alamance in 2 if I could.

I guess the second, but the optimal cut wrt: CoI would be somewhere in the middle. Siler City is a better fit for your grey, but Pittsboro should go with Chapel Hill.

[jimrtex]

North Carolina has 16 regional council of governments. These are voluntary organizations of cities and counties that provide cooperation on issues of regional interest. They reflect meaningful and officially recognized communities of interest. They are the starting point for drawing a congressional district map independent of past gerrymanders.

This table show the populations of the regions relative to the quota for a congressional district.

RCOG	City	Population
Albermarle	Hertford	0.234
Cape Fear	Wilmington	0.573
Centralina	Charlotte	2.684
Eastern Carolina	New Bern	0.863
High Country	Boone	0.286
Isothermal	Rutherfordtown	0.315
Kerr-Tar	Henderson	0.309
Land-of-Sky	Asheville	0.544
Lumber River	Pembroke	0.408
Mid-Carolina	Fayetteville	0.678
Mid-East	Washington	0.390
Piedmont Triad	Greensboro	2.237
Southwestern	Sylva	0.265
Triangle J	Raleigh	2.292
Upper Coastal Plain	Wilson	0.423
Western Piedmont	Hickory	0.498

Three central regions of Centralina (Charlotte), Piedmont Triad (Greensboro-Winston Salem), and Triangle J (Raleigh-Durham) are all entitled to two plus districts each and are fairly extensive, extending beyond what we would consider their metropolitan areas. To the extent possible we will avoid drawing areas outside these major cities, and create separate districts for secondary cities such as Fayetteville, Wilmington, Asheville, Rocky Mount, Greenville, Jacksonville, and Hickory(Unifour)

We can groups the RCOG's into West, Central, and Eastern regions. The central region is the three RCOG's based on Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Durham. The west region is the five RCOG's to the west, and the east region is 8 RCOG's to the west.

Area	Population
West	1.909
Central	7.212
East	3.879

Based on these regions, we should be able to draw 2 districts largely to the west of the Charlotte, and Greensboro-Winston-Salem metro areas, and 4 districts to the east.
This map groups RCOG's in areas of roughly equal population.



The western area is divided in a way that produces the best population balance, but extending along the Appalachian spine is not an unreasonable community of interest.

Mecklenburg, Wake, and Guilford+Forsyth were split out in separate areas, each with a bit more than the quota. Mecklenburg and Wake will necessarily be divided, and Guilford would be unless we split Forsyth adn Guilford.

Southern suburban counties around Charlotte were split out, which along with Mecklenburg has a population equivalent to two quotas. Stanly was included to hit the quota target. The remainder of the Centralina RCOG was used to form the 13th district.

I could not find a reasonable way to combine Kerr-Tar (north of Raleigh) and Mid-Carolina (Fayetteville) with the other eastern RCOG's so I instead attached them to the Triangle J RCOG, and split that area three ways: Wake (Raleigh); Durham-Orange(Durham-Chapel Hill) and the areas to the north, and areas to the south. Moore and Lee are somewhat remote from Raleigh, while Harnett has spillover from Wake.

The relative population of the areas.

Area	Population
Appalachian	1.095
Western	0.814
Charlotte	1.254
Charlotte Metro	0.745
I-85	0.686
Greensboro-Winston-Salem	1.144
Central	1.093
Raleigh	1.228
Durham-North	0.856
Raleigh Metro	1.194
Northeast	1.048
Eastern	0.863
Southeast	0.981

This iteration refines the districts to get the districts more in population balance, particularly in the east and the west.



Surry is added to the western area to get the population up to two quotas. The county has the right size, and is remote from Greensboro. Some counties were swapped to better balance the populations of the Appalachian and Western districts.

In the east, Cumberland(Fayetteville) was moved into the southeastern district, in exchange for New Hanover(Wilmington) being moved into the eastern district. Wilmington fits better with a coastal district, and Fayetteville is better in a district with Robeson than a district that pushes into the Raleigh suburbs.

Anson, Richmond, Duplin, Wayne, Greene, Beaufort, and Hyde were moved to balance population.

The I-85 district was expanded to the north to get sufficient population. This produces a compact district, with a mix of suburban Charlotte, suburban Greensboro, and exurban areas, as well as smaller mill towns along the Fall Line.

The central area including the big question mark around Greensboro needs more work.

Updated population:

Area	Population
Appalachian	1.009
Western	1.000
Charlotte	1.254
Charlotte Metro	0.745
I-85	0.979
Greensboro-Winston Salem	1.144
Central	0.762
Raleigh	1.228
Durham-North	0.856
Raleigh Metro	1.006
Northeast	1.004
Eastern	1.007
Southeast	1.005

This is a refinement that produces whole-county districts, except for splits of Mecklenburg, Wake, and Guilford counties. The splits of Mecklenburg and Wake are necessary. The split of of Guilford permits Winston-Salem and Greensboro to be maintained in a single district.



It is expected that the cut of Mecklenburg will permit the western and eastern suburbs of Charlotte to be linked, and the cut of Wake will provide a link between Johnston and Franklin counties. This introduces district numbers which are added in a snake-like fashion from east to west.

Whole-county districts in bold.

District	Population
1-Appalachian	1.009
2-Western	1.000
3-Charlotte	1.254
4-Charlotte Metro	0.745
5-I-85	0.979
6-Greensboro-Winston Salem	1.336
7-Central	0.617
9-Raleigh	1.228
8-Durham-North	1.012
10-Raleigh Metro	0.803
13-Northeast	1.004
12-Eastern	1.007
11-Southeast	1.005

Mecklenburg Split:

4-Charlotte	0.999
3-Charlotte Metro	0.255

Guilford Split:

5-I-85	0.013
6-Greensboro-Winston Salem	0.322
7-Central	0.330

Wake Split:

7-Central	0.045
9-Raleigh	0.993
10-Raleigh Metro	0.190

This is the division of Mecklenburg, and the surrounding area.



CD-4 is wholly in Mecklenburg and includes the center and north of the county. About 80% of Mecklenburg is in the district. The boundary line generally follows I-485, coming inside to include Mint Hill, Mathews, Pineville, and unincorporated areas, while cutting off the areas of Charlotte that extend out past the loop.

Roughly 1/4 of the district is in each of Gaston, Union, and Mecklenburg counties.

The initial attempt at dividing Guilford did not work well. While including Rockingham and Stokes with Forsyth and Guilford produced a compact whole-county district, it required excising a larger portion of Guilford to reach population equality. An island with Greensboro would have to be connected by an isthmus to either Rockingham or Forsyth, which seems to be contrary of the attempt to have a district centered on Greensboro and Winston-Salem.

This alternative arrangement shifts Rockingham and Stokes to the Durham-Chapel Hill district, and Alamance to the Central district. This results in a much larger share of Guilford remaining in the Greensboro-Winston-Salem district.



As a secondary benefit this improves overall equality of the map.

This shows the division of Guilford.



Greensboro and (most of) High Point are included in NC-6 with Forsyth and Winston-Salem. The district is split 48-52 between the two counties, with the slight majority in Guilford.

The southern and eastern part of the county outside Greensboro and High Point is in NC-7. This is about 20% of the county. The hook on the west end is unincorporated territory between Greensboro and High Point. The hook on the north is for population reasons. This area fits well with Randolph and Alamance counties. Burlington is on the western edge of Alamance and may be growing towards Greensboro.

A small nibble of High Point is included in NC-4 for overall population equality. High Point does lap into Davidson County at that point. But Guilford was chosen in otder to limit county splits to three counties. An alternative would be to take a nibble out northern Mecklenburg, at a slight decline in overall equality (standard deviation 0.48% to 0.52%). In a rational world, a single 2.1% deviation would be acceptable.