North Carolina 2020 Redistricting
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Author Topic: North Carolina 2020 Redistricting  (Read 84685 times)
Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #125 on: November 14, 2019, 04:15:26 PM »



i think this is probably the best map you can get with respect to communities of interest and compactness




edit: i like this one more 'cause it keeps pittsboro with chapel hill



What's with everyone trying to place the Raleigh suburbs with Raleigh itself? Personally, I much prefer creating one Triangle district (durham-chapel hill-raleigh) and one Raleigh burbs one - Raleigh the city has much more in common with Durham then it does with say Holly Springs/
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #126 on: November 14, 2019, 04:19:02 PM »




Dem's proposed a amendment, and frankly I'm happy it got shot down with that 6th.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #127 on: November 14, 2019, 04:20:22 PM »



So the suggested plan my very well be our 'final' map before the judges bang their gavel.

Geez. 8 and 9 are terrible, but 5 and 10 are terrible, too. What's the reasoning behind them? It doesn't seem to be to separate incumbents or to preserve the existing map.
Indeed they are, but the 8th could be competitive with all of Cumberland County (Fayetteville) and increasingly competitive Cabarrus County (Charlotte suburbs). I'd love to see its PVI in the version including all of Cumberland.
EDIT: I found some kid on twitter that estimated the PVI on this map, if he's correct the 8th would be R+5 and 9th R+7.

The 7th is obviously terrible, but we knew that was likely. But the 5th and 10th are worse imo because there is no need to strip there. McHenry and Foxx would be stuck with a ton of people they haven't represented before, although solidly conservative areas, I doubt either are happy with that. I'm very confused as to why they stripped those two seats. On top of everything else, the incumbents live far apart.
I'm not as annoyed with the 8th and 9th because they were already stripped and we knew they were likely to remain so due to where the incumbents live.

I did some data estimates here, you can find it upthread. If you need Zoom to read, than here.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #128 on: November 14, 2019, 04:29:45 PM »

This change passed. Sounds like it added a bit more of the black ares of Pitt County into CD-01.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #129 on: November 14, 2019, 04:35:18 PM »

This change passed. Sounds like it added a bit more of the black ares of Pitt County into CD-01.



Continuing the trend of every Dem district being rather good but you have to scratch your head for every GOP one.
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Vern
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« Reply #130 on: November 14, 2019, 06:02:51 PM »

Honestly, this map is not terrible.  There are thinks I don’t like. But overall I will get it a C.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #131 on: November 14, 2019, 06:27:12 PM »

I'll give a brief summary of the statehouse map.
NC-01: D+17 to D+4. This makes sense, as it is uncracking the Wake gerrymander and making it a primarily rural minority-heavy district. It's 42% black, which should be enough to keep Butterfield happy.
NC-02: R+7 to D+9. Holding is most likely toast here, as the 2nd becomes a district with most of Wake County in it, rather than a suburban gerrymander.
NC-03: R+12 to R+12. This district is always a tough one to draw because the population centers are split up (Greenville, Jacksonville), and it is squeezed between Wilmington in 7, the AA seat in 1, and the coast. Still, safe R for Murphy, and the partisan lean doesn't change much here. Communities of interest basically is just ENC not included in NC-01, and the Outer Banks.
NC-04: D+17 to D+10. The successor to the Durham seat, this one gets a little less Democratic, but Clinton still won over 60 percent of the vote here.
NC-05: R+10 to R+18. This one makes sense, as the old 5th had Winston Salem in it drowned out by really red rural NW NC, but now that the Winston-Salem/Greensboro gerrymanders are being unwound, the 5th becomes a predominantly rural district, stretching all the way from the Northwest to the western Charlotte suburbs. This is clearly a gerrymander as the shape of the 5th and the 10th (which I shall talk about later) have no precedent in any of the previous shapes of the districts.
NC-06: R+9 to D+8. Walker is likely toast here just as with Holding because his old district had Asheboro/Randolph County (voted Trump 76-20) keeping it solidly red, as well as some of the Piedmont to the north of Greensboro. The new district becomes a Greensboro/Winston-Salem seat as it should be, and is a likely pickup for Democrats.
NC-07: R+9 to R+11. Not significantly redder than it originally is, this district contains Wilmington as well as heavily red Brunswick County, except now it stretches further north all the way to Johnston County (Wake suburbs formerly in NC-02). I don't necessarily think this was the best idea, given that NC-07 has always been a Sandhills/Southern North Carolina district. That being said, if the district had to expand (as rural NC is losing population to urban very quickly), north is probably the way to go, because east is the 3rd which is already boxed in and west is the 8th/9th which both represent rural swaths of the Sandhills region, and have enough population to sustain a district for a Community of Interest. Rouzer is likely safe here, Trump won this new district by 20, he won the old one by 18, so it's not that different. This area used to be represented by a lot of conservative Democrats (Mike McIntyre for example), but unless one of them wins a primary (which given that Wilmington is in the district, probably won't happen), this district is a Safe R seat, maybe going to Likely in a 2018-style wave and Lean in a 2008-style wave. (Also, this 7 has all of the famous Bladen County that had the electoral fraud in the 9th district)
NC-08: R+8 to R+5. So to preface, 8 and 9 are twins so to speak in modern-day NC apportionment. Historically speaking, 8 was the Fayetteville district with the rural swath of the state between Charlotte and Fayetteville, and 9 was the suburban Charlotte district (think Mark Harris and Union County). When the GOP took over, they slashed Cumberland County (Fayetteville) into 2 and divided it between 8 and 9. The new district becomes much more bluer and gettable, as it has all of Cumberland back in it, and is only Trump +9 as supposed to Trump +15. Someone like Larry Kissell could do well if he wanted to run here again. This district could have been drawn worse. As of now, I'd say it's a Likely R seat. Hudson would still likely win.
NC-09: R+8 to R+7. This district, being the flip-side of 8, takes in the southern band of the Sandhills region, and stretches into metro Charlotte. McCready would probably win this district both times. Metro Charlotte is trending D, and a Dem that can keep up the strength in the ancestrally Democratic eastern parts of the district (read: Richmond, Anson, Scotland, Hoke, Robeson) could do well here, so someone like McCready. The counter-argument to this is, of course, Union County, which is a huge GOP bulwark against Democratic inroads, as well as Moore County (a small central NC county that is very Republican as well, though not all of it is in the 9th). Given that this is Trump +10, I'd say it's Likely R for a seat. Dan Bishop would probably still win, but if Mark Harris or some other nutcase wins the primary, this could get competitive real fast.
NC-10: R+12 to R+19. Western North Carolina historically is the most Republican part of the state. McHenry is going to be safe from any Democrat, his only threat is a primary. Adding a bunch of High Country NC in the Northwest may not make him very happy, but in the interest of fair maps, this district is tied with 5 as the worst one on this map. The only community of interest I can see for either of them is partisanship, these are very Republican areas. They should have cut these two seats north-south, as has been done before, and not east-west as we are seeing here. This seat is Safe R.
NC-11: R+14 to R+9. One of the biggest partisan shifts on this map towards Democrats, the 11th historically has been the flip-side district of the 10th and has historically included all of Buncombe County (the city of Asheville, a very liberal enclave), as well as some ancestral Democrats in the far western part of NC. When the GOP took over in 2010, they cut Buncombe in half and we got Mark Meadows (the Freedom Caucus bomb-thrower) as a result. This new map puts all of Asheville back in the 11th and stretches further a bit to the north and east, which makes sense as rural NC is losing population. The Republicans who drew the map chose to go east into Polk and Rutherford Counties (two arch-Republican counties that historically were in the 10th), instead of north towards Watauga County (which is Democratic-leaning and if drawn into it, would have made it a Trump +13 district instead of Trump +17. This district is one that could potentially get competitive with the right candidate (probably a Blue Dog), but for a Democrat to win, they would need to supercharge turnout in Asheville (which I guess is probably easy enough if Meadows is their representative), as well as hold back the reddening of those ancestral Democratic areas. Currently Safe R, but could become competitive if the right candidate jumps in.
NC-12: D+18 to D+17. This district hasn't changed much, as it is the Charlotte-based seat that is the successor to the shoestring AA seats of the 90s and 00s. Alma Adams should be fine and only has to worry about a Democratic primary here, given Republican urban and suburban bleeding. Thus, I think this new seat is Safe D.
NC-13: R+6 to R+18. This seat is the converse of NC-06, which shared a crack of Greensboro. Now that this is unpacked, this seat becomes a much safer R seat but again drawn rather badly. My guess is that they wanted to shore up Democrats in 4 with Chatham and Orange. Anyway, this seat is Safe R.

Finally, the breakdown.
Most likely, this seat will elect 5 Democrats and 8 Republicans, an improvement over the current 3-10 map. It should be near 6-7, but in a good year, this number or even 7-6 can be attained.
NC-01: Safe D, Likely D in R wave year
NC-02: Safe D
NC-03: Safe R
NC-04: Safe D
NC-05: Safe R
NC-06: Safe D
NC-07: Safe R
NC-08: Likely R, Lean R in D wave year
NC-09: Likely R, Lean R in D wave year
NC-10: Safe R
NC-11: Safe R, Likely R depending on candidate
NC-12: Safe D
NC-13: Safe R
Therefore, we can see Democrats could gain an absolute maximum of 8-5 in the delegation in a good enough year.

THE END
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #132 on: November 14, 2019, 06:48:21 PM »

Not sure why you wasted a lot of ink on the 7th since its both safe R in any scenario these days,there are no more blue dogs, and these districts are drawn using 2010 data so the seat doesn't need to expand to reflect pop change until 2021. NC-01 is also D+5 following the edits made on the floor.

Also of course the courts can and probably will intervene after this passes tomorrow, even if only to make 8/9 E/W and 5/10 N/S.

7 (or 8 if we concede the stupid 7th into existence) of the seats are 'passable.' Personally I say those have reached the point of marginal returns on COIs and partisan balance. It's just that other 5 (5/8/9/10/13) that really raise eyebrows.
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« Reply #133 on: November 14, 2019, 07:31:23 PM »

Hold on, does Governor Cooper get a say in any of this? It seems like he should.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #134 on: November 14, 2019, 07:40:14 PM »

Hold on, does Governor Cooper get a say in any of this? It seems like he should.

Not in NC. Redistricting is normally in the sole  hands of the legislature, presently GOP. This is why the courts have been moving against all the maps right now at the end of the cycle so as to establish themselves as the de facto overseer for 2021. The courts will get a say when the legislature presents it's maps.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #135 on: November 14, 2019, 07:42:43 PM »

Hold on, does Governor Cooper get a say in any of this? It seems like he should.
Nope
Nc is the state of parties self owning.
Democrats and the veto
The GOP and a partisan court.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #136 on: November 14, 2019, 07:58:31 PM »

Not the perfect place for it, but what's with the leftward shift of Cabarrus? Especially compared to Union or Gaston.
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Storr
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« Reply #137 on: November 14, 2019, 09:32:38 PM »
« Edited: November 14, 2019, 09:53:41 PM by Storr »

Not the perfect place for it, but what's with the leftward shift of Cabarrus? Especially compared to Union or Gaston.
As a local I can give a guess.
Gaston is separated from Mecklenburg (and thus Charlotte) by the Catawba River and it has acted as a physical barrier to suburban growth. I could easily be wrong, but I'd assume Gaston is home to more native North Carolinians than the other counties that border Mecklenburg, thus it is very "WWC".

Union borders the historically Republican (and well off) part of southern/southeastern Mecklenburg. The suburban part of Union reflects it by supporting Republicans for local and national office. In addition, Union stretches far to the east (much further than Cabarrus), containing very WWC areas.

Meanwhile, Cabarrus doesn't border conservative areas or have a river separating it from Mecklenburg. In fact, the border is very close to the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and University City (a huge mixed use development with office parks and a hospital). A few hundred feet across the county line, Concord Mills is the most visited tourist attraction in the state and there's nothing in any other area counties that can compete with it in encouraging suburban development. Cabarrus also has easy access to Charlotte along recently expanded ten lane I-85 (the route to Charlotte from suburban Union is along notoriously clogged NC-16 and US-74). Basically, it's the most convenient and closest suburban area not in Mecklenburg to Charlotte, and thus has had the most suburban development. As a result, it has attracted more newcomers (many who are minorities and many from relatively liberal states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and California who tend to be less conservative than native whites) than other non-Mecklenburg Metrolina counties.
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Vern
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« Reply #138 on: November 15, 2019, 07:57:27 AM »

So, if the Senate passes the current map. How long until we know if the courts approve it or not?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #139 on: November 15, 2019, 09:50:47 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 10:16:52 AM by Oryxslayer »

So, if the Senate passes the current map. How long until we know if the courts approve it or not?

They will be sure to let us know. Practically though, if they intend to make edits then it will go quickly - in PA  the courts took authority quickly to banish uncertainty.


Anyway, the senate is going to look at, and likely pass unchanged, the House's map today. The NC state house isn't sitting again for a while so it's very unlikely they make any edits at all.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #140 on: November 15, 2019, 11:00:15 AM »






Practically I feel this amendment is a delaying tactic, not a real move to change the lines. 2/4 lines are really not a problem, though they can be improved marginally.
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« Reply #141 on: November 15, 2019, 12:35:50 PM »

Hopefully the courts redo the 5/10 and 7/8/9 lines.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #142 on: November 15, 2019, 03:25:54 PM »



The legislative side is now done.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #143 on: November 15, 2019, 05:12:39 PM »

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #144 on: November 15, 2019, 05:29:27 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 05:34:30 PM by Skill and Chance »

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Important to note that Texas uses the same statewide partisan judicial election system as PA and NC for its state supreme court (except with normal primaries, so it is always 1 D and 1 R running per court seat in the GE).  This is all enshrined in the state constitution, which would require a 2/3rds majority vote of both state legislative chambers (which Republicans have never held in both chambers simultaneously) and then a majority statewide referendum vote to change.  Currently, all of the state supreme court seats are held by Republicans, but if Democrats reach the point where they are often able to win statewide elections, PA/NC style map reform is likely coming to Texas during the 2020's. 


Normally 3 of the 9 seats are up every 2 years.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #145 on: November 15, 2019, 05:58:31 PM »

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.
Georgia too.
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« Reply #146 on: November 15, 2019, 06:10:25 PM »

If that ends up being the map then Holding is pretty much f[inks]ed and we'll see a Budd v. Walker primary battle.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #147 on: November 15, 2019, 06:13:14 PM »

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.
Georgia too.

Yeah, Georgia is going to be one of the toughest large state gerrymanders to break.  There is simply no statewide "backdoor" available for reform advocates and a 2/3rds majority gerrymander of the state legislature isn't impossible either.  If VA is gerrymandered in favor of Dems, it will be similarly hard to break. 
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #148 on: November 15, 2019, 09:50:41 PM »

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.
Georgia too.

And Michigan
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lfromnj
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« Reply #149 on: November 15, 2019, 11:14:39 PM »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 11:18:19 PM by Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ »

The NCGOP is playing much smarter than the PA GOP is. The PA GOP just tried an absurd map only conceding 1 seat out of them all and using that to shore up the remaining seats. Instead they got smacked by the courts. A fair map would probably have a 6-7 delegation but the GOP can reasonably fight for a 5-8 delegation as a 5-8 isn't an extreme gerrymander or insane either. Unfortunately for them the NC dems did not give bipartisan cover so the courts will probably give a tossup/Tilt D seat to the D's with Fayetville.
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