North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Georgia too.

And Michigan

Michigan and Georgia aren't as bad anymore.   At least there's a reasonable chance of getting a somewhat fair delegation in those states.   

[Oryxslayer]

The NCGOP is playing much smarter than the PA GOP is. The PA GOP just tried an absurd map only conceding 1 seat out of them all and using that to shore up the remaining seats. Instead they got smacked by the courts. A fair map would probably have a 6-7 delegation but the GOP can reasonably fight for a 5-8 delegation as a 5-8 isn't an extreme gerrymander or insane either. Unfortunately for them the NC dems did not give bipartisan cover so the courts will probably give a tossup/Tilt D seat to the D's with Fayetville.

I honestly think they could be able to get away with it if 5/10 weren't crazy. Maybe those two are  meant to be bait to distract from 8/9? I keep wondering why 5/10 were drawn like so. The only conclusion I have is that the house GOP wanted to protect against or facilitate certain primaries, potentially because they desire to save Walker and Bus someone else  in a GOP primary.

[jimrtex]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Important to note that Texas uses the same statewide partisan judicial election system as PA and NC for its state supreme court (except with normal primaries, so it is always 1 D and 1 R running per court seat in the GE).  This is all enshrined in the state constitution, which would require a 2/3rds majority vote of both state legislative chambers (which Republicans have never held in both chambers simultaneously) and then a majority statewide referendum vote to change.  Currently, all of the state supreme court seats are held by Republicans, but if Democrats reach the point where they are often able to win statewide elections, PA/NC style map reform is likely coming to Texas during the 2020's. 


Normally 3 of the 9 seats are up every 2 years.

There is no requirement in the Texas constitution for partisan judicial elections.

[Skill and Chance]

That really just leaves Ohio and Texas as the last two surviving "major" R Gerrymanders left in the country.   (Not saying the NC Map is perfect now or anything)

We'll see how well the Texas one holds up next year though.

Important to note that Texas uses the same statewide partisan judicial election system as PA and NC for its state supreme court (except with normal primaries, so it is always 1 D and 1 R running per court seat in the GE).  This is all enshrined in the state constitution, which would require a 2/3rds majority vote of both state legislative chambers (which Republicans have never held in both chambers simultaneously) and then a majority statewide referendum vote to change.  Currently, all of the state supreme court seats are held by Republicans, but if Democrats reach the point where they are often able to win statewide elections, PA/NC style map reform is likely coming to Texas during the 2020's. 


Normally 3 of the 9 seats are up every 2 years.

There is no requirement in the Texas constitution for partisan judicial elections.

Yes, I regret that error.  It would presumably be possible to make the elections nonpartisan or change the primary format by passing a standard law, but moving away from statewide elections (to merit selection, senate confirmation other than until next election, supreme court districts, or whatever) or changing the number of seats or term lengths for the state supreme court would require going through the amendment process.

BTW I wish all states with partisan judicial elections would remove the party labels.  The concept is repugnant.

[Vern]

When can we expect to hear something from the court?

[Skill and Chance]

BTW it increasingly looks like the NC-07/eastern NC-09 area is "going WV" on Dems even compared to other parts of the rural South.  I wouldn't count on Dems flipping anything in that area even with the most favorable map.  The best potential for an outstate Dem flip during the 2020's is in the mountains if the court forces Asheville and Boone into the same seat given how hard left both have been moving.
 

[Libertas Vel Mors]

BTW it increasingly looks like the NC-07/eastern NC-09 area is "going WV" on Dems even compared to other parts of the rural South.  I wouldn't count on Dems flipping anything in that area even with the most favorable map.  The best potential for an outstate Dem flip during the 2020's is in the mountains if the court forces Asheville and Boone into the same seat given how hard left both have been moving.
 

I think the best flip potential is actually the 8th, which includes Fayettesville and almost voted for Stein in 2016, but agreed other then that. Was drawing NC districts last night, and crazy seeing how much Trump overperformed PVI in the area, especially in Robeson County etc etc (though for some reason Stein, a Jewish Democrat from Chapel Hill, also really overperformed in the whole region).

[Sol]

BTW it increasingly looks like the NC-07/eastern NC-09 area is "going WV" on Dems even compared to other parts of the rural South.  I wouldn't count on Dems flipping anything in that area even with the most favorable map.  The best potential for an outstate Dem flip during the 2020's is in the mountains if the court forces Asheville and Boone into the same seat given how hard left both have been moving.
 

I don't know if I'd say that--a compact Sandhills and Fayetteville district still voted for HRC. There were certainly big GOP swings and the area is definitely trending R in a big way.

But some of that is due to the Lumbee vote which is more idiosyncratic and could definitely snap back to the Democrats for a candidate who is strong on Lumbee issues--not impossible to see Robeson voting for a Democratic president in 2020, much less for Congress.

Additionally, these areas have big Black populations which give a Democratic floor in the area.

[Vern]

So if the courts don’t say anything by dec 2, the map they put out will be the final map?

[Oryxslayer]

So if the courts don’t say anything by dec 2, the map they put out will be the final map?

There is history pushing back the NC congressional primaries to make appropriate time for mapping and candidate filling, so I would treat that as a soft date at best, especially since it falls near the holidays.

[Nyvin]

NC Court rejects the legislature's map.

https://twitter.com/pnrodenbush/status/1197286403677315072

[Vern]

Well, hopefully the courts can make a good map

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Beautiful!!!

[Vern]

I just wish they will hurry this up and give us the final map.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1201564346356244482

Looks like the 8R-5D map will be used.   Plaintiffs can still appeal to the state supreme court though.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1201566864784199681?s=19

Yep, disappointing. If the deep blue supremes don't like it then they will let us know shortly since they would want to fast-track an appeal. For now, let's assume the ruling stands and those odd GOP seats remain intact.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Ah, what the hell. At least we'll have something new in 2022 (7-7 if they have the guts).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I kinda like the fact the new map is only 8R-5D. It's considerably less atrocious than 10R-3D and the map will only be there for just one cycle. State leg will matter however and Ds need to try their hardest to flip at least one house in 2020 lest their hand in 2022 line-drawing be weakened.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1201684489086394368/photo/1

Looks like its set in for an 8-5 delegation. This does push my house rating from lean D to Likely D even if this was already confirmed.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Ah, what the hell. At least we'll have something new in 2022 (7-7 if they have the guts).

Playing around on DRA, it looks like a fair map would probably be 8-6 and 9-5 could be accomplished with relatively clean lines.

[Nyvin]

The plaintiffs won't appeal to the State Supreme Court, the map is final.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1201684489086394368

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will there be any intense D primaries in NC-02 and NC-06?

[Oryxslayer]

Will there be any intense D primaries in NC-02 and NC-06?

Well, we shall see. The map appears to have not been challenged because of the filing window. Already former senate candidate Deborah Ross has filed for NC02 and 2018 NC-13 candidate Kathy Manning filed for NC-06. However, there are large blue bases in both seats, so we will see who emerges.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t understand why Districts 5 and 10 are drawn that way, though I’d assume the NC GOP wanted to protect their only female rep from Mark Walker’s potential carpetbagging. Railroading Virginia Foxx is bad optics for a party who’s trying to win over women.

[Farmlands]

I don’t understand why Districts 5 and 10 are drawn that way, though I’d assume the NC GOP wanted to protect their only female rep from Mark Walker’s potential carpetbagging. Railroading Virginia Foxx is bad optics for a party who’s trying to win over women.

Have we ever heard anything of the sort from the GOP? I know electing more women to the party has been one of Stefanik's goals for some time, but there have been no indication I've seen that either the voters or the party establishment wants that. Nor do they really care about the optics of it.