Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 10, 2019, 03:25:58 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginia)
  Are Minnesota and Wisconsin diverging?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Are Minnesota and Wisconsin diverging?  (Read 564 times)
LiberalDem19
Full Member
***
Posts: 243


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 01, 2019, 01:54:21 am »
« edited: November 01, 2019, 01:57:22 am by LiberalDem19 »

Let's look at the numbers.

National Environment: D+7 (That is according to Harry Enten, once you take out the races that only had one party represented).

Minnesota, 2018 election
Senate: D+11, not including Klobuchar
Governor: D+12
Average: D+11.5

Wisconsin, 2018 election
Senate: D+11
Governor: D+1
Average: D+6 (Note that Dems had incumbency in the Senate and GOP had it in Governor, so they cancel each other out)

Now, I took a look at the FOX exit poll from 2018, figuring it was more accurate than CNN since they polled every state instead of some. Trumps approval rating in Minnesota was around -20, and in Wisconsin it was around -10. Nationally, it was -10, so Minnesota was D+5 PVI, and Wisconsin was even. If you look at education among white voters, Minnesota had 42% with a degree to 48% without. Wisconsin had 37% with a degree to 54% without.

Now, the most recent Civiqs poll had Trumps approval nationally at -11. In Minnesota, it was -17, and in Wisconsin it was -5, for a 12 point split. So, I think we could make an inference that these two states are starting to drift away from each other, especially as the Milwaukee/Madison suburbs just aren't big enough to stop rural bleeding, while the Twin Cities suburbs are getting bluer at a more rapid pace and are a greater share of the state.


Logged
Annatar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 412
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2019, 03:41:43 am »
« Edited: November 01, 2019, 04:08:10 am by Annatar »

No, you can't just look at 1 election, here is how Minnesota has voted relative to Wisconsin in every election going back to 1992 which was arguably the beginning of the current alignment.

1992:D+7.3
1996:D+5.8
2000:D+2.2
2004:D+3.1
2008:R+3.7
2012:D+0.8
2016:D+2.3

One could say MN and WI have actually converged since the 1990's when the differences were bigger, since 2000 every election has seen WI and MI be within 4% of each other and in 2016 MN was as democratic compared to WI as it had been in 2000 indicating no evidence of divergence. 

Logged
Wazza
Wazza1901
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,524
Australia


Political Matrix
E: 2.19, S: 1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2019, 04:00:03 am »

Averaging out 2018 races in a state is pure fuzzy math and won't get you anywhere.
Logged
Non Swing Voter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 515


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2019, 12:36:07 pm »

Seems plausible.  MN has a bigger more cosmopolitan metro area so on paper at least, it seems like the type of state that Democrats would continue to have a shot in whereas WI on paper seems like it would trend Republican.  They are kind of like VA and NC, similar but on paper one should perform better for Democrats than the other.
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,722
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2019, 01:06:30 pm »

Seems plausible.  MN has a bigger more cosmopolitan metro area so on paper at least, it seems like the type of state that Democrats would continue to have a shot in whereas WI on paper seems like it would trend Republican.  They are kind of like VA and NC, similar but on paper one should perform better for Democrats than the other.

This.  MSP dominates MN population-wise to a much greater degree than Milwaukee/Madison in WI or Detroit in MI.  The influence of MSP as a % of the statewide vote exceeds the influence of Philadelphia metro on PA.

However, there is a lot of room left for Republicans to gain in outstate MN.
Logged
LiberalDem19
Full Member
***
Posts: 243


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2019, 02:55:16 pm »

Seems plausible.  MN has a bigger more cosmopolitan metro area so on paper at least, it seems like the type of state that Democrats would continue to have a shot in whereas WI on paper seems like it would trend Republican.  They are kind of like VA and NC, similar but on paper one should perform better for Democrats than the other.

This.  MSP dominates MN population-wise to a much greater degree than Milwaukee/Madison in WI or Detroit in MI.  The influence of MSP as a % of the statewide vote exceeds the influence of Philadelphia metro on PA.

However, there is a lot of room left for Republicans to gain in outstate MN.

I think this is the right take. The counties that include a population center (Rochester, Mankato, Moorhead, and Duluth) comprise about 25% of Greater Minnesota's population, so the DFL would be smart to organize hard in those areas, and well as boosting metro turnout. Metro+ Greater MN population centers= 67% of the vote, and will probably break 70% soon.
Logged
Scottholes 2.0
Wisconsinite
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 787
United States


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2019, 01:00:41 am »

Not really.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,692
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2019, 02:03:27 am »

Minnesota's pretty consistently been a little bit more Democratic than Wisconsin at the presidential level, and slightly more so at the statewide level. I don't think that the gap going from 0.8% in 2012 to 2.3% in 2016 really suggests a huge divergence. There's no way Minnesota will go comfortably Democratic while Wisconsin goes Republican at the same time.
Logged
SInNYC
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 270


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2019, 11:39:15 am »

WI west of Madison and in the north has always been similar to corresponding parts of MN, and continues to be.

However, Milwaukee was never really like MN since its more of a rust belt city while MN doesn't really have a rust belt. Some might argue that Duluth is rust belt, but it really isnt as it was always about resource extraction rather than manufacturing and MN successfully added tourism to its base. There really is a line in WI between the rust belt and dairy country (which also includes tech).

Incidentally, pre-2008, 538 ranked MN closer to WA than WI, though WI's closest state was MN (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/state-similarity-scores/)
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC