IA-NYT/Siena: Tight 4-way-race

[Dr. Arch]

I'm getting 2008 vibes from IA this year.

[2016]

Finally a proper Poll here!

[Grumpier Than Thou]

DROP OUT, BERNIE!

I agree.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

DROP OUT, BERNIE!

I agree.

Fix that sarcasm detector, clown. 

[ShamDam]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-poll-warren-biden.html

Somehow the New York Times decided not to include Yang on their graph, even though he got the same percentage as Harris.

The #YangMediaBlackout continues. It's getting shameful at this point.

That image is cropped. The original graphic in the article includes Yang

[The Free North]

No commentary from Nate Silver when his top tier candidate is at 3% in a state she went 'full in on' months ago?

[Holmes]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-poll-warren-biden.html

Somehow the New York Times decided not to include Yang on their graph, even though he got the same percentage as Harris.

The #YangMediaBlackout continues. It's getting shameful at this point.

Yeah. Honestly they should have included neither of them.

[Pollster]

Klobuchar and Harris' supporters could wind up deciding this race with their second choice. Remember that you need 15% to be viable, and within your precinct that number becomes even more critical. Biden is in position to suffer from this bigtime.

[Mr. Morden]

Full results at 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/

Warren 22%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 17%
Klobuchar 4%
Harris 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 2%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 2%
everyone else 0%

[libertpaulian]

DROP OUT, BIDEN!

[Yellowhammer]

Harris should probably drop out.

[Gustaf]

No commentary from Nate Silver when his top tier candidate is at 3% in a state she went 'full in on' months ago?

Last comment I can find from him is from mid-September when he said Harris was not in the top tier and ranked her together with Buttigieg down in tier 2b. So not sure your point is very strong.

[heatcharger]

Looking pretty bad for Sloth Biden since Buttigieg seems to have taken a chunk of his support, clearly. Still, a Buttigieg-Sanders-whoever top finish in IA-NH-NV respectively is unequivocally a better result than a Warren sweep. That's a less powerful narrative going into SC and Super Tuesday.

[RI]

Buttigieg is now second in Atlas's IA poll average.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No wonder Harris is desperate in trying to win over Iowans, due to Warren's stamina in the race. Warren and Buttigieg will probably be the last two standing. Polls like USA Today and Rassy consistently are understating Warren

[Dr. Arch]

Buttigieg is now second in Atlas's IA poll average.

He's second in the same average on RCP as well.

[GeneralMacArthur]

BOOMtigieg!

How long before we get a Butti-1 poll?

[Xing]

Good for Warren/Sanders/Buttigieg, not so good for Biden, humiliating for Harris. While Biden finishing just barely behind Sanders/Buttigieg, and 5% behind Warren wouldn't be terrible for him mathematically, getting 4th wouldn't be good optics for him, especially if he gets 3rd or 4th in NH as well.

[ElectionsGuy]

Biden is now relying on a McCain type bounceback, in SC instead of NH (4th state to vote) and his supposed firewall on Super Tuesday. His CoH, fundraising and ground game is very arguably worse than any other major candidate. His strategy is basically to hope that his numbers don't crash further in early and northern states and that the southern states will bail him out with large margins. Not a great trajectory at this point in time.

[indietraveler]

Wow so looking at the breakdown by age, Liz and Pete appear to be in the best shape here if it's really this close.

Keep in mind the 15% threshold. This indicates Biden is likely to do terrible in the higher populated college towns and Sanders will likely struggle in less populated older communities.

I'd much rather be Warren or Buttigieg right now where your distribution among age is more spread out, thus more likely to hit at least 15% everywhere throughout the state. In 2008 Obama decisively won younger voters but still captured nearly 20% of senior voters behind Clinton and Edwards.

My take based on this poll:

1. Warren
2. Buttigieg


3. Biden
4. Sanders

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, Biden and Sanders are out. Biden is indeed a sloth and he will go down as the Jeb of 2020😏😏😏😏

[Mr. Morden]

Remember that you need 15% to be viable

Keep in mind the 15% threshold.

Remember though that this time they're actually going to release the raw count of initial preferences, before people reallocate their support on the 15% threshold.  I'm not sure how we know yet how the media is going to handle this. Will the initial preference vote be treated by the media as the "real" results?  Or will they put both sets of numbers up on the screen at once, or what?

I realize that the reallocated #s are the ones that determine delegate allocation, but Iowa's a small state with few delegates.  It matters so much only because of media framing / momentum reasons, so who the media crowns the "winner" matters more than delegates.

[Shadows]

Sanders' numbers among young voters are comfortably lower than Warren which is anomaly considering the same poll has Sanders leading among 30-44 & 45-54 age groups where Warren generally leads. There has to be something wrong with the sample either way. If Sanders is leading among 30-54 vs Warren, then he is surely doing a lot better among 18-29 & he is actually leading Warren.

Another thing to consider is Yang-Gabbard voters who are like 5% here & Sanders can get 3-4% from that easily, maybe in some cases votes of Biden & Pete as well.

I don't see Sanders with any risk of dropping below 15%. If anything all polls don't consider the unlikely voter which Sanders is tapping to & under-estimate young voter turnout based on previous turnout levels. That coupled up with the energy of his supporters & huge volunteer & donor base means he will very likely exceed the polls. Just look @ the number of donors of Bernie. It is virtually impossible to fall below 15%.

Another aspect of the polls -

Would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to caucus for a different candidate?

% “Mind is made up” by 1st choice candidate:

Sanders: 55%
Biden: 34%
Warren: 26%
Buttigieg: 25%

55% of 19% = 10.45% (Sanders)
34% of 17% = 5.78% (Biden)
26% of 22% = 5.72% (Warren)
25% of 18% - 4.5% (Pete)

There will be considerable movement till Caucus date.

[Skill and Chance]

Buttigieg is going to end up winning Iowa Obama 2008 style. 

[Tender Branson]

Buttigieg is going to end up winning Iowa Obama 2008 style. 

Yes.

He’s a very good match for the state and he probably has the best ground game there.