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November 17, 2019, 07:57:42 am
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, x)
  Rate GA-06 for 2020
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Poll
Question: Who will win Georgia's 6th congressional district in 2020?
#1Safe D  
#2Likely D  
#3Lean D  
#4Tilt D/Tossup  
#5Tilt R/Tossup  
#6Lean R  
#7Likely R  
#8Safe R  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 72

Author Topic: Rate GA-06 for 2020  (Read 679 times)
LCameronOR
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« on: November 02, 2019, 03:16:55 pm »

This district has a PVI of R+8 and is currently represented by Democrat Lucy McBath. It includes the northern Atlanta suburbs and parts of Cobb County, Fulton County, and Dekalb County. In 2012, Romney won this district by 23.3%. In 2016, Trump won this district by 1.5%.

Karen Handel, the previous incumbent who lost in 2018, has filed to run again.

Recent Results
2018: D +1%
2017 Special: R +3.6%
2016: R + 23.4%
2014: R +32%
2012: R +29%
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2019, 03:32:31 pm »

Given that Trump is extremely likely to lose it, Likely D.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2019, 03:40:51 pm »

Likely D (not Tom Emmer)
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gracile
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2019, 03:42:39 pm »

Strong Lean D. I won't go as far as calling it Likely D yet since the margin will probably remain close. However, this is one of the most likely Trump districts to flip on the presidential level, and it's tough to see McBath losing under those circumstances.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2019, 04:08:50 pm »

Lean D, not unwinnable for R's but also not a top tier target. After 2020, they may as well draw this seat safer D and give up on it while trying to make the 7th more Republican.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2019, 05:52:10 pm »

Likely D

Trump will likely lose this district (contrary to 2016) and I dont see how republicans can flip it back under a such scenario, McBath should win pretty easily
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2019, 06:44:41 pm »

Lean D. Trump has probably a better than even chance of losing this district, and I don't see why McBath would underperform the Democratic nominee.
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Georgia Is A Swing State
RFKFan68
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2019, 07:39:06 pm »

Likely D.

Shell win the Fulton part of the county outright this time too.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2019, 07:41:56 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.
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Jeff Sessions Hack
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2019, 07:44:18 pm »

Tilt McWraith
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2019, 01:25:08 am »

Lean D, closer to Likely D than Tossup
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2019, 05:01:14 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Oh nice, were jumping back from being stuck in 2004 to being stuck in 1974. Is the TX Panhandle district lean D too since its open now after the strong incumbent is retiring?
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John Bel Edwards
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2019, 05:12:55 pm »

Likely D
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North Fulton Swing
mollybecky
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2019, 06:07:15 pm »

It's at least Lean D but the margin will depend on who is at the top of the ticket.    She has maintained a fairly low, noncontroversial profile and appeals to voters in the suburban areas.   
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2019, 08:21:11 pm »

Given that Trump is extremely likely to lose it, Likely D.
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Haley/Abbott
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2019, 04:14:42 pm »

Lean D, not unwinnable for R's but also not a top tier target. After 2020, they may as well draw this seat safer D and give up on it while trying to make the 7th more Republican.

Agreed on the rating. Disagree on redistricting. Republicans can totally draw a safe R district here, even if they also somehow got permission to draw out Johnson. Check out the 538 maps, or just draw around on your own if you want.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2019, 07:27:50 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Oh nice, were jumping back from being stuck in 2004 to being stuck in 1974. Is the TX Panhandle district lean D too since its open now after the strong incumbent is retiring?


GA-6 was Safe R as late as 2014
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2019, 09:17:23 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Your hot takes have been unusually bizarre lately, even by your standards.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2019, 09:37:38 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Your hot takes have been unusually bizarre lately, even by your standards.

I think McBath's election was a fluke.  She could be re-elected, but I believe that the district here is still Republican-leaning.  Not by much, I grant you.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2019, 10:29:49 am »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Your hot takes have been unusually bizarre lately, even by your standards.

I think McBath's election was a fluke.  She could be re-elected, but I believe that the district here is still Republican-leaning.  Not by much, I grant you.

How the hell is a district that voted for Stacey Abrams Republican leaning LOL
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Politician
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« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2019, 08:28:20 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Your hot takes have been unusually bizarre lately, even by your standards.

I think McBath's election was a fluke.  She could be re-elected, but I believe that the district here is still Republican-leaning.  Not by much, I grant you.

How the hell is a district that voted for Stacey Abrams Republican leaning LOL
Is IL-6 not a Democratic leaning district because Rauner carried it?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2019, 03:13:41 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Your hot takes have been unusually bizarre lately, even by your standards.

I think McBath's election was a fluke.  She could be re-elected, but I believe that the district here is still Republican-leaning.  Not by much, I grant you.

GA-6 may be Republican leaning, but not while Trump is President.
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Senator ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2019, 04:51:06 pm »

Tossup/Tilt R, unless Trump is impeached AND the case against him has the consensus that the case against Nixon had.

Your hot takes have been unusually bizarre lately, even by your standards.

I think McBath's election was a fluke.  She could be re-elected, but I believe that the district here is still Republican-leaning.  Not by much, I grant you.

How the hell is a district that voted for Stacey Abrams Republican leaning LOL
Is IL-6 not a Democratic leaning district because Rauner carried it?

The dynamics of IL-Gov 2018 and GA-Gov 2018 are more than a little different.
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