WaPo/ABC: Biden+5, but Warren/Buttigieg with gains

[Tender Branson]

Warren’s support has nearly doubled from 12 percent in July and is up from 18 percent in September. Support for Biden and Sanders has moved less than two points over that period. Buttigieg has gained five points since early September, a signal his national stature may be catching up to his standing in Iowa, where polls have found him rising and with double-digit support.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-warren-and-buttigieg-rise-the-democratic-presidential-race-is-competitive-and-fluid-a-washington-post-abc-news-poll-finds/2019/11/02/4b7aca3c-fccd-11e9-8906-ab6b60de9124_story.html

[Tender Branson]

This is a debate qualifying poll, but nobody benefits ... (the TOP-4 are already qualified for December).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Oh, Kamala.......

Smh.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OUCH Harris

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yet another poll where a "top tier candidate" fails to outpoll Gabbard.

[Mr. Morden]

They don’t specifically ask a GOP primary matchup question with named candidates, but do ask GOP voters if they’d like the party to nominate Trump or someone else:

Trump 67%
Someone Else 30%

On the Dem. side, Harris is only at 2% for first choices, but at 9% (and 4th place) for 2nd choice…

2nd choice:
Warren 20%
Sanders 19%
Biden 14%
Harris 9%
Buttigieg 8%
Klobuchar 4%
Delaney 3%
Booker 2%
Castro 2%
O’Rourke 2%
Yang 2%
everyone else 0 or 1%

[Mr. Morden]

More here, including crosstabs:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-warren-sanders-stay-top-health-now-issue/story?id=66664771&cid=clicksource_4380645_null_hero_hed



Note that the topline numbers in that table are Biden 27%, Warren 21%, Sanders 19%, etc.  Those numbers are among adults, while the numbers in the OP are registered voters.

Also, the poll shows doubts on Sanders’s health:

[Tender Branson]

Pete at 4% already with the Blacks.

He’s making progress !

[Shadows]

How is Sanders polling 23% among Non-Whites & 6% among African Americans? Is he polling 45-50% among Hispanics ? The number (whatever it is) is very very good for Nevada but bad for South Carolina.

Warren's supporters are least decided (65%) & Sanders is now the 2nd choice among Warren voters by a large margin & is also the 2nd choice among Biden voters. However those numbers regarding health are terrible.

[Shadows]

Pete at 4% already with the Blacks.

He’s making progress !

Yeah but assuming Hispanic + Asian American + Mixed Race voters = Black voters (or close to that number), he is polling 0% among Hispanic voters or maybe 1% at best which is terrible for Nevada.

2nd choice of Warren Voters - 36% Sanders 17% Biden 11% Klobuchar 7% Harris 7% Castro 6%
2nd choice of Biden Voters - 31% Sanders 26% Harris 11% Pete 11%

Who is Pete going to end up taking support from ? Because Biden supporters are not going to him & neither will Warren & neither will Sanders. His support is based on white voters in Iowa & NH.

Sanders is winning all polls related to honesty, on the issues, understanding of voters but Biden once again has a massive lead on electability.

[Eraserhead]

How is Sanders polling 23% among Non-Whites & 6% among African Americans? Is he polling 45-50% among Hispanics ? The number (whatever it is) is very very good for Nevada but bad for South Carolina.

Warren's supporters are least decided (65%) & Sanders is now the 2nd choice among Warren voters by a large margin & is also the 2nd choice among Biden voters. However those numbers regarding health are terrible.

I saw that. It doesn't really make any sense frankly.

The health numbers are bad but will probably improve over time barring another health related episode.

[Shadows]

How is Sanders polling 23% among Non-Whites & 6% among African Americans? Is he polling 45-50% among Hispanics ? The number (whatever it is) is very very good for Nevada but bad for South Carolina.

Warren's supporters are least decided (65%) & Sanders is now the 2nd choice among Warren voters by a large margin & is also the 2nd choice among Biden voters. However those numbers regarding health are terrible.

I saw that. It doesn't really make any sense frankly.

The health numbers are bad but will probably improve over time barring another health related episode.

I dont know what % is Hispanic & what % is Asian American & what % is Mixed race.

But if Biden is @ 39% among blacks & 30% overall, his numbers among Hispanics is between 20-25% & Warren will  e @ 10-15% seeing that she is @ 22% among Blacks but 17% overall among Non-whites. Buttigieg is close to 0% & the others can barely cobble up 5% of the Non-White vote @ best leaving Sanders @ 50%+.

This is why Monrning Consult is a good poll. Due to the large sample size you will not have these errors. When you have 50 Latino voters in Colorado or Nevada they can give abnormal results. And so for every other demographic.

I think the Nevada polls will give some idea along with the national vote regarding Hispanic votes. I also don't know how Pete will take votes or Joe Biden seeing as Warren+Biden are overwhelmingly 2nd choice. People don't vote on ideological lines only but on familiarity, electability, emotions, perception & so on. If I was Pete, I would be worried about his numbers among Hispanics. He is already failing among Black voters & if he does this bad among Hispanics he literally has no chance. He will do well in Iowa & NH & then fall off a cliff afterwards in most states.

[President Johnson]

I doubt Liz is at 22% with blacks.

[Eraserhead]

I doubt Liz is at 22% with blacks.

Yeah, the topline numbers seem reasonable but some of the crosstabs are just weird.

[SN2903]

Harris is done.

[History505]

Harris is done.

She qualified for the December debate though. She is probably going to make it to Iowa at least.

[eric82oslo]

Harris is done.

For most purposes I agree. Her average in the ten qualifying polls for December so far, she's at a meager 3.8%, just slightly ahead of Klobuchar's average of 3%.

[James Monroe]

I doubt Liz is at 22% with blacks.

Liz is the front runner for the nomination. I highly trust the statistic number given here.

[swf541]

I doubt Liz is at 22% with blacks.

Liz is the front runner for the nomination. I highly trust the statistic number given here.

"Front runner" whom can't even lead in national polls

[James Monroe]

I doubt Liz is at 22% with blacks.

Liz is the front runner for the nomination. I highly trust the statistic number given here.

"Front runner" whom can't even lead in national polls

What path does Bernard have to the nomination?

Biden is weak in gaining momentum with the progressive base who's rallying around Senator Warren.

[swf541]

I doubt Liz is at 22% with blacks.

Liz is the front runner for the nomination. I highly trust the statistic number given here.

"Front runner" whom can't even lead in national polls

What path does Bernard have to the nomination?

Biden is weak in gaining momentum with the progressive base who's rallying around Senator Warren.

I support Biden not Sanders, so unsure why your asking me about Biden, Warren does not have 21% of the african american vote and is likely to get wiped out in the south and by the looks of it the south west as well, Warren+Buttigieg both cant seem to expand outside of the white liberal base.

Biden does not need the progressives to win the nomination and Warren's momentum seems to have stalled in the last week+.