LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,172
Political Matrix E: -7.42, S: -4.78
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« on: November 15, 2019, 04:59:32 PM » |
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« edited: November 15, 2019, 05:03:29 PM by Laki »
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Virginia could vote Republican again, but Republicans will have to improve in the suburbs, and stay economically right-wing while evolving on social issues, like a neoliberal European party. If the candidate is popular and charismatic enough. They'll win Virginia back.
Nevada could happen in 2020, but I think the state is trending hard left in the future. 2020, 2024 and 2028 might be the last opportunities to flip it. But the state is heavily unionized and prepared to vote for an even more leftist candidate if the Democrats swing left, and go with Warren type candidates. It's a hard state to predict it's future, but I think it will stay a Lean / Likely D state for a long time.
Colorado and New Mexico which i didn't vote for, could very well happen as well. I think in the future Colorado is going to be harder to flip, as there is a lot of improvement for Republicans to win the conservative-leaning Hispanic population back. Although Democratic Hispanics are generally quite left-wing. Colorado also has a lot of young people coming in, and will keep trending leftwards. Young people and a decent sized population of left-wing Hispanics is going to make it keep voting left, even if some Hispanics trend rightwards, who dislike the current direction of the Democratic Party and if the GOP becomes more open for minorities, which will happen if they evolve in an European neoliberal party. But Colorado will stay a state that attract libs and young people, and will probably become a Safe D state, barring a major re-alignment which i don't see likely to happen. Same does apply for New Mexico but I think that state is trending less leftwards, and will vote Democratic for the majority of the time.
I think states like Rhode Island, Connecticut, even Vermont are all likelier to vote GOP in one of the elections in the far distant future than Colorado and New Mexico, although New Mexico COULD happen if the GOP improves a lot with Hispanics.
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