Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 12, 2019, 05:46:39 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  MI (Emerson) - Trump down 8 to 14
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: MI (Emerson) - Trump down 8 to 14  (Read 872 times)
LCameronOR
LCameronAL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 639
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: -2.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 03, 2019, 07:22:06 pm »

Trump - 43%
Sanders - 57%

Trump - 44%
Biden - 56%

Trump - 46%
Warren - 54%

Conducted 10/31-11/3, 1051 RV, +/- 3%
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
Logged
marty
boshembechle
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,436


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2019, 07:23:45 pm »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??

Logged
#Klobmentum
Cinemark
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 449


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2019, 07:24:50 pm »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??



Because its Emerson.
Logged
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,332
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2019, 07:25:59 pm »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??



we are heading for a heightened 2004? Tongue
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,346
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2019, 07:56:20 pm »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??

Because this his how Nevada polls every year. Especially if they don't poll in Spanish, which I assume Emerson does not. The Democrat will end up winning by at least 5-7 points.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,133


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2019, 08:03:24 pm »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??

Because this his how Nevada polls every year. Especially if they don't poll in Spanish, which I assume Emerson does not. The Democrat will end up winning by at least 5-7 points.

From the Nevada poll methodology:

Quote
Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=702) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=195) and Dynata (n=191).

Pollsters usually mention it when Spanish is an option, so I would also assume Emerson doesn't.
Logged
Annatar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 413
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2019, 10:06:31 pm »

The Michigan sample is 48% College educated, in the last midterm election where the electorate tends to be more college educated than in a Presidential year due to lower turnout only 35% of voters were college educated.
Logged
SN2903
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.35, S: 2.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2019, 11:12:03 pm »

Garbage poll. Bernie Sanders wouldn't even 50% in Michigan.  Only 42% favor impeaching and removing Trump from office according to the latest CNN poll which is less than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Michigan could end up being the state that reelects Trump.
Logged
McGarnagle
SomethingPolitical
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 497


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2019, 11:56:36 pm »

Just because it shows your candidate on the defensive doesn't mean it is a garbage poll.

If I'm not mistaken, Emerson has actually been one of the more generous pollsters to Trump, along with Rasmussen. The fact that he's trailing in Emerson and Rasmussen polls should alarm anybody that supports Trump.

You also seem to somehow be taking one CNN poll from before public hearings have begun as an indication Trump will be re-elected, and I think that's a mistake. Even if it is true that just 42% support impeachment and removal in Michigan, and it stays that way, it doesn't mean Trump is popular or broadly liked, nor does it mean he is in a better position than in 2016, when he just barely squeaked by.

My advice, if you choose to take it, is to wait for more data and aggregates - we may have a clearer picture in a couple of months. This is just getting started. Support for impeachment has grown steadily, and from the looks of it, will continue to grow.
Logged
538Electoral
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,559


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2019, 01:04:19 am »

Just because it shows your candidate on the defensive doesn't mean it is a garbage poll.

If I'm not mistaken, Emerson has actually been one of the more generous pollsters to Trump, along with Rasmussen. The fact that he's trailing in Emerson and Rasmussen polls should alarm anybody that supports Trump.

You also seem to somehow be taking one CNN poll from before public hearings have begun as an indication Trump will be re-elected, and I think that's a mistake. Even if it is true that just 42% support impeachment and removal in Michigan, and it stays that way, it doesn't mean Trump is popular or broadly liked, nor does it mean he is in a better position than in 2016, when he just barely squeaked by.

My advice, if you choose to take it, is to wait for more data and aggregates - we may have a clearer picture in a couple of months. This is just getting started. Support for impeachment has grown steadily, and from the looks of it, will continue to grow.

Polls at this point mean nothing too don't forget.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,070


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2019, 01:23:11 am »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??



we are heading for a heightened 2004? Tongue

Um no , more like 2012 . Bush did pretty good in the midwest , if Kerry was as bad as a candidate as Hillary was, Bush would have done better than Trump did in the Midwest.



Logged
dfwlibertylover
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,332
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2019, 01:49:26 am »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??



we are heading for a heightened 2004? Tongue

Um no , more like 2012 . Bush did pretty good in the midwest , if Kerry was as bad as a candidate as Hillary was, Bush would have done better than Trump did in the Midwest.




Romney didn't win Nevada though, that's the point....
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,070


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2019, 01:56:09 am »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??



we are heading for a heightened 2004? Tongue

Um no , more like 2012 . Bush did pretty good in the midwest , if Kerry was as bad as a candidate as Hillary was, Bush would have done better than Trump did in the Midwest.




Romney didn't win Nevada though, that's the point....


well then its neither 2004 or 2012 lol.
Logged
Speaker OneJ
OneJ_
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2019, 06:56:32 am »

The Michigan sample is 48% College educated, in the last midterm election where the electorate tends to be more college educated than in a Presidential year due to lower turnout only 35% of voters were college educated.

This is another problem with Emerson. They don't even weight by education. How do you not do that?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,528
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2019, 11:27:58 am »

How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??

Because this his how Nevada polls every year. Especially if they don't poll in Spanish, which I assume Emerson does not. The Democrat will end up winning by at least 5-7 points.

From the Nevada poll methodology:

Quote
Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=702) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=195) and Dynata (n=191).

Pollsters usually mention it when Spanish is an option, so I would also assume Emerson doesn't.

Michigan has a growing Hispanic population, but it is still a small proportion. As an indication, the only market in Michigan that has a Spanish-language broadcast channel is Detroit. There is no Univision or Telemundo channel except on cable in Lansing, Flint, or Grand Rapids markets. The only spill-over from other states from  Spanish-language broadcasts is from Chicago -- not Green Bay, South Bend, or Toledo, either. An Anglophone bias in polling means far less in Michigan than in Nevada. Michigan voters are also less prone to adopt newer technologies, as people are mostly poorer than their counterpoints from when the auto industry was stronger and had more activity in Michigan. The auto business pays well, but other industries pay badly in Michigan.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,400


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2019, 02:52:25 pm »

So Emerson has Trump down by by 6 in OH and by 12 in MI but at the same time he is winning NV ?! That's very logical Smiley
Logged
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,073
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2019, 05:32:32 pm »

I see Emerson has landed on Planet Zogby.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,133


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2019, 06:22:04 pm »

I see Emerson has landed on Planet Zogby.

At least no one can accuse them of herding!
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,528
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2019, 12:09:11 am »

Trump - 43%
Sanders - 57%

Trump - 44%
Biden - 56%

Trump - 46%
Warren - 54%

Conducted 10/31-11/3, 1051 RV, +/- 3%
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/michigan-2020-democrats-aim-to-take-back-the-state
With these numbers from Michigan, President Trump risks lsong at least 250 electoral votes by at least 8%. Such does not leave much wiggle room in the event that some critical constituency slips away from him anyehere.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC