How the hell is trump ahead in Nevada and down double digits in Michigan according to Emerson??
Because this his how Nevada polls every year. Especially if they don't poll in Spanish, which I assume Emerson does not. The Democrat will end up winning by at least 5-7 points.
From the Nevada poll methodology:
Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=702) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=195) and Dynata (n=191).
Pollsters usually mention it when Spanish is an option, so I would also assume Emerson doesn't.
Michigan has a growing Hispanic population, but it is still a small proportion. As an indication, the only market in Michigan that has a Spanish-language broadcast channel is Detroit. There is no Univision or Telemundo channel except on cable in Lansing, Flint, or Grand Rapids markets. The only spill-over from other states from Spanish-language broadcasts is from Chicago -- not Green Bay, South Bend, or Toledo, either. An Anglophone bias in polling means far less in Michigan than in Nevada. Michigan voters are also less prone to adopt newer technologies, as people are mostly poorer than their counterpoints from when the auto industry was stronger and had more activity in Michigan. The auto business pays well, but other industries pay badly in Michigan.
