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December 12, 2019, 05:49:39 am
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, Speaker YE, Senator ON Progressive)
  NV (Emerson) - Trump tied to +2
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Author Topic: NV (Emerson) - Trump tied to +2  (Read 1061 times)
LCameronOR
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« on: November 03, 2019, 07:29:58 pm »

Trump - 50%
Sanders - 50%

Trump - 51%
Biden - 49%

Trump - 51%
Warren - 49%

Conducted 10/31-11/2, 1089 RV, +/- 2.9%
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nevada-2020-biden-extends-lead-warren-jumps-to-second
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Skunk
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2019, 07:32:50 pm »

I see the s****y Nevada polls have come early.
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Neoliberal EDUCATED Kansan
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2019, 07:33:00 pm »

Likely D, but looks like weíre gonna have to go through this for the tenth time.

Up next:

KY-Emerson: Trump tied to -4
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Thunder98
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2019, 07:33:08 pm »

Ah good ol nevada polling...  Smile

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TML
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2019, 07:34:17 pm »

For reference:

Back in 2016 the final RCP polling average for NV was Trump +0.8, yet the actual result was -2.4, which amounts to a 3.2-point underperformance of the polls. This means we shouldn't be betting on Trump winning NV just yet.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2019, 07:34:38 pm »

This likely = a small Dem lead given well known Nevada polling problems, but emphasis on small.  Nevada should continue to be a Trump > Generic R state.  I fully expect it to be within 5 again and give Trump about 1 in 3 odds of winning.
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Neoliberal EDUCATED Kansan
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2019, 07:50:46 pm »

This likely = a small Dem lead given well known Nevada polling problems, but emphasis on small.  Nevada should continue to be a Trump > Generic R state.  I fully expect it to be within 5 again and give Trump about 1 in 3 odds of winning.

So Trump is down 5-8 nationally but tied or ahead in NV? I agree that he has a fairly high floor in NV, but thereís really no way heís doing this well in the state. Donít be fooled by NV polling again.

I think the state will track closely to the popular vote, but given that the popular vote is pretty much Safe D...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2019, 07:56:55 pm »

I am going to guess that they don't poll in Spanish, which means this poll is trash.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2019, 07:59:48 pm »

Emerson + Nevada is two strikes right off the bat.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2019, 08:02:07 pm »

This likely = a small Dem lead given well known Nevada polling problems, but emphasis on small.  Nevada should continue to be a Trump > Generic R state.  I fully expect it to be within 5 again and give Trump about 1 in 3 odds of winning.

So Trump is down 5-8 nationally but tied or ahead in NV? I agree that he has a fairly high floor in NV, but thereís really no way heís doing this well in the state. Donít be fooled by NV polling again.

I think the state will track closely to the popular vote, but given that the popular vote is pretty much Safe D...

I think he's actually only down 3ish nationally.  See the other thread here I recently posted in.
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gracile
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2019, 08:05:58 pm »

Nope. I'm not buying it.
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FalloutBoy97
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2019, 08:34:25 pm »

You would think that eventually pollsters would figure out what they are doing wrong here and rectify it. Whether it's under sampling of Spanish-speaking voters or union members (heavy overlap there), they have consistent missed in the same direction. Trump isn't +2 in NV, and something tells me his polling average will nonetheless be +2 in NV in the month leading up to the election.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2019, 08:39:39 pm »

Sen. Heller who won by 7 points really likes this poll.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2019, 08:56:51 pm »

How strong do you all think the Reid machine will be this time through? I heard he was sick, but i'm not sure if he is, or if that'll affect anything.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2019, 10:39:27 pm »

Isn't Emerson's big problem in Nevada that they don't poll in Spanish?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2019, 01:18:51 am »

Between this and the Michigan poll, can we really say that the pollsters have learned their lessons from 2016? At this point, it's predictable the kind of polling bias that will continue (and this is not just limited to Emerson).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2019, 02:31:58 am »

Memerson and NV polling history is a very bad combination.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2019, 02:44:48 am »

Isn't Emerson's big problem in Nevada that they don't poll in Spanish?

Emerson can't poll in any language.
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swords
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2019, 02:48:13 am »

Memerson and NV polling history is a very bad combination.

not at all

let me show you

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html
Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46%   clinton 47%   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html
Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   rosen 49   heller 45   Rosen +4
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swords
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2019, 02:48:57 am »

Sen. Heller who won by 7 points really likes this poll.

hey emerson's final was

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html
Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   rosen 49   heller 45   Rosen +4
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2019, 06:17:48 am »

Likely D.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2019, 09:06:11 am »

This poll is wrong, Dems will win NV
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SN2903
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2019, 10:01:51 am »

Nope
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2019, 11:16:05 am »

A Nevada poll that does not reach cell phones and does not reach the large Hispanic electorate will get results unduly favorable to Republicans. Many people decide to vote late, and those tend to go D.

Outside Greater Las Vegas, Nevada is very strong R... think of Greater Chicago in Illinois or the large cities to the south and east of Interstate 69 in Michigan. Ranch and mining interests in Nevada are really-strong R. But we know where the population is. Only if Democrats barely win Clark County is Nevada a swing state.

Landline phones are a dying technology because it requires a high-cost investment and maintenance.     
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2019, 12:46:46 pm »


Why would Democrats underpoll in NV in every election for the last decade, then suddenly stop even without the polling methodology fixed?
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