KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Bidenworth2020]

The Lexington numbers are impressive, but those rural numbers look very bad for Beshear, so I don't think it'll be enough.

Umm what?

[Calthrina950]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

[YE]

The Lexington numbers are impressive, but those rural numbers look very bad for Beshear, so I don't think it'll be enough.

And this is why politics is so frustrating.

[Tintrlvr]

CNN has Fayette at 45%, it doesn't seem huge to me.

Their numbers are way too low to be 45% of the vote; they have only about 10,000 votes reported. Fayette cast nearly 70,000 votes in 2015, e.g. Not sure what that means. Seems unlikely Lex18 would be making up their numbers, and they have Beshear at 65% in Fayette with 87% reporting.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Night is still young, and Western Kentucky is very conservative so it will help Bevin.

[H. Ross Peron]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

Did they expect Bevin's victory to be even larger than in 2015?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1191866611411693569

[jamestroll]

Kenton and Campbell holding for the Democrats by double digits thus far. In fact Democrats lead in all races in Kenton County for statewide contests as of now!!

[bilaps]

11k lead for Bevin, CNN

[Calthrina950]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

Did they expect Bevin's victory to be even larger than in 2015?

Many did, including myself. It's still early yet, as Jefferson County and Western Kentucky have yet to report. So we'll see. And I'm seeing reports that Bevin is hitting his benchmarks in other rural counties, like Robertson and Menifee, both of which he won fairly easily.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

There is also a Houston Mayoral Election tonight

[morgieb]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

Did they expect Bevin's victory to be even larger than in 2015?

I think that what people were saying, yeah. I still suspect Bevin is the slight favourite now, but those saying he was obviously going to win by 20 because #trendsarereal were silly.

[Oryxslayer]

Meanwhile Lexinton's local new is outpacing the state, NYT, and DDHQ, likely becuase it's lexington reporting in.

[adamevans]

Atlas users who were predicting a Bevinslide are going to be shocked by the end of the night. Beshear will win.

[MT Treasurer]

Many did, including myself. It's still early yet, as Jefferson County and Western Kentucky have yet to report. So we'll see. And I'm seeing reports that Bevin is hitting his benchmarks in other rural counties, like Robertson and Menifee, both of which he won fairly easily.

Menifee is only Bevin +7 with 75% of precincts reporting. Bevin won it by 12 in 2015, so this is an underperformance if anything.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1191869535273529345?s=20

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

Did they expect Bevin's victory to be even larger than in 2015?

Many did.

[H. Ross Peron]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

Beshear's victories in Bath and Nicholas, and presumably in Elliott, means that the predictions Bevin would win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin were inaccurate. Beshear is doing better in the rurals thus far than I expected.

Did they expect Bevin's victory to be even larger than in 2015?

I think that what people were saying, yeah. I still suspect Bevin is the slight favourite now, but those saying he was obviously going to win by 20 because #trendsarereal were silly.

Yeah I saw a Bevin win as perfectly possible and probably would have tilt R about the race if asked but its bizarre to say he'd have expanded his win margin given his unpopularity.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

John Hicks is going to win the Governor race!

[Calthrina950]

Many did, including myself. It's still early yet, as Jefferson County and Western Kentucky have yet to report. So we'll see. And I'm seeing reports that Bevin is hitting his benchmarks in other rural counties, like Robertson and Menifee, both of which he won fairly easily.

Menifee is only Bevin +7 with pretty much all precincts reporting. Bevin won it by 12 in 2015, so this is an underperformance if anything.

Then what I read was inaccurate. I was reading that Bevin won it by less than that in 2015. Guess it goes to show you the inaccuracies that can easily crop up. But we'll have to see what happens when Jefferson County dumps its votes. And Beshear is leading in Kenton and Campbell, the two traditionally Republican suburban counties near Cincinnati that will be essential for him to win.

[Tintrlvr]

Meanwhile Lexinton's local new is outpacing the state, NYT, and DDHQ, likely becuase it's lexington reporting in.

Right, but it's hard to take too much from this because they have nearly all of Fayette reporting but very little from the rest of the state (and no county breakdowns other than for Fayette).

[bilaps]

LOL, CNN for a moment had Bevin winning Jefferson with 100% of the vote in

[Gass3268]

Many did, including myself. It's still early yet, as Jefferson County and Western Kentucky have yet to report. So we'll see. And I'm seeing reports that Bevin is hitting his benchmarks in other rural counties, like Robertson and Menifee, both of which he won fairly easily.

Menifee is only Bevin +7 with pretty much all precincts reporting. Bevin won it by 12 in 2015, so this is an underperformance if anything.

Then what I read was inaccurate. I was reading that Bevin won it by less than that in 2015. Guess it goes to show you the inaccuracies that can easily crop up. But we'll have to see what happens when Jefferson County dumps its votes. And Beshear is leading in Kenton and Campbell, the two traditionally Republican suburban counties near Cincinnati that will be essential for him to win.

And unfortunately Kenton and Campbell are going to have some really crazy swings depending on what precicents are reporting.

[Skye]

Boone County is 80% in and Bevin is currently up by 15 points. He won it by 35 points in 2015, so, you know.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

iirc No Republican Governor in kentucky has ever won re-election