KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Brittain33]

Any reason why Democrats fared better in the VA House (54-56 seats) compared to the State Senate?

2 seats flip in Senate is proportionate to 5 in House, so the results are pretty similar.

Yeah, it's just disappointing from the  dem side since there are now two State senate seats held by the GOP where the dems now hold nearly every state house seat now. Both seats were marginal  wins by the GOP, and there are two more targets where they came close. It was expected to be the 'gimmi' of the night, and while the senate was (the two D flips were beyond the MOE) it was hoped more flips would be be on their way just like how the state house was.

Consider it karmic balance for Beshear winning by a tiny margin.

[Badger]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Any reason why Democrats fared better in the VA House (54-56 seats) compared to the State Senate?

2 seats flip in Senate is proportionate to 5 in House, so the results are pretty similar.

Yes, but the Senate hadn't been up in the Trump-era. Lots of surburban/exurban Rs holding on because upballot realignment hadn't reached the state-house yet. There was much lower hanging fruit there compared to the House of Dels where Ds were able to pick off most of the gimme races two years ago.

It looks to me like there some big whiffs in HRO (where Rs rebounded in Virginia Beach especially in SD8 and SD11), and in some Richmond and DC exurbs (close loss in SD12 and less close losses in SD11 and SD28). I also want to look at some results in SD17 where a district spanning Fredericksburg to Charlottesville and went to Northam by something like 4 points reelected a Republican narrowly.

[RI]

A Libertarian is beating both a D and R in the Broome County, NY DA race.

[Badger]

A Libertarian is beating both a D and R in the Broome County, NY DA race.

Question mark does anyone have any details on this race? Is this an actual libertarian running and making Headway? Or is this one of those scenarios where a local well-known democrat or republican has a personality Feud with another faction of the party and breaks off or is forced out to 1 as a third party?

[Oryxslayer]

A Libertarian is beating both a D and R in the Broome County, NY DA race.

Question mark does anyone have any details on this race? Is this an actual libertarian running and making Headway? Or is this one of those scenarios where a local well-known democrat or republican has a personality Feud with another faction of the party and breaks off or is forced out to 1 as a third party?

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1191925068932288513

[Matty]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I'd agree with that take on Kentucky, but if there's one thing that has to worry the GOP just a bit on Pennsylvania, it's that it seems as though there isn't a swing back to the Republicans happening in historically red affluent suburbs (especially in Delaware and Chester counties).  

[bilaps]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I think it tells you nothing about Trump's own chances and maybe not even GOP's in 2020 cause Trump will be on the ballot but it tells you a lot going beyond that. Trump will exit office either in 1 or in 5 years and as an office holder he has now shown that he isn't powerful enough to elect terrible candidates like Bevin. GOP is losing suburban votes and if I say it's by an alarming pace that would be an understatement. Trump is a unique figure and I don't think that GOP wil have someone replicate him when he's not around anymore and then what?

[Matty]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I think it tells you nothing about Trump's own chances and maybe not even GOP's in 2020 cause Trump will be on the ballot but it tells you a lot going beyond that. Trump will exit office either in 1 or in 5 years and as an office holder he has now shown that he isn't powerful enough to elect terrible candidates like Bevin. GOP is losing suburban votes and if I say it's by an alarming pace that would be an understatement. Trump is a unique figure and I don't think that GOP wil have someone replicate him when he's not around anymore and then what?

No one can predict the future. I think if warren or Bernie win in 2020 and actually try to enact some of their agenda, suburbs will be a little kinder to the right GOP candidate.

FWIW, at least in KY, the downballot repubs about matched trump’s margins in the suburbs

[Sir Mohamed]

The CNN and NYT result pages still didn't declare Beshear the winner?

[Oryxslayer]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I think it tells you nothing about Trump's own chances and maybe not even GOP's in 2020 cause Trump will be on the ballot but it tells you a lot going beyond that. Trump will exit office either in 1 or in 5 years and as an office holder he has now shown that he isn't powerful enough to elect terrible candidates like Bevin. GOP is losing suburban votes and if I say it's by an alarming pace that would be an understatement. Trump is a unique figure and I don't think that GOP wil have someone replicate him when he's not around anymore and then what?

No one can predict the future. I think if warren or Bernie win in 2020 and actually try to enact some of their agenda, suburbs will be a little kinder to the right GOP candidate.

FWIW, at least in KY, the downballot repubs about matched trump’s margins in the suburbs

Yes for Beshear it was standard post-trump democratic Burbstomping with the nice bonus of getting the non-Elliot rurals to give a swan song. For every other GOP'er, it was a normal Tuesday, even the closeish SOS.

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1192094122359902209

[Cinemark]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I certainly can and I will.

[Matty]

Then you have to extrapolate the downballot races too

[Cinemark]

Then you have to extrapolate the downballot races too

Trump nationalized the governor race. He went and held a huge rally with McConnell and Rand Paul for Bevin. Trump said it would look bad for him if Bevin lost. Its not hard to connect the dots.

[Matty]

Then you have to extrapolate the downballot races too

Trump nationalized the governor race. He went and held a huge rally with McConnell and Rand Paul for Bevin. Trump said it would look bad for him if Bevin lost. Its not hard to connect the dots.

So your argument is that the other Republicans outperformed Bevin because their races weren’t nationalized and trump didn’t mention them? LOL.

Daniel Cameron was at that rally and gave a speech.

Only on Atlas can people truly think trump hurt Bevin in fricken Kentucky

[Annatar]

It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

[Cinemark]

Then you have to extrapolate the downballot races too

Trump nationalized the governor race. He went and held a huge rally with McConnell and Rand Paul for Bevin. Trump said it would look bad for him if Bevin lost. Its not hard to connect the dots.

So your argument is that the other Republicans outperformed Bevin because their races weren’t nationalized and trump didn’t mention them? LOL.

Daniel Cameron was at that rally and gave a speech.

Only on Atlas can people truly think trump hurt Bevin in fricken Kentucky

I dont think Trump hurt Bevin. But I do think this proves "Trump rallies = republicans wins" trope so prevalent on atlas as false.

[Cinemark]

It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

And if my mother were a man, she'd be my father.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

It's also plausible that if Trump had stayed away, Democrats might have been slightly less energized, and it would have only taken a small difference to give Bevin the win.  Neither assertion is provable.

[DINGO Joe]

KY Politics at the State level are statewide politics but tie into an Historical Narrative, which can trickle into Federal GE Races....

The revival of the Trade Union Movement in the Form of the Teacher's Strikes in Kentucky have revived the memories of older retirees in a heavily white impoverished State.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/13/us/teacher-walkout-kentucky-oklahoma-arizona/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/03/20/teacher-strike-sickout-kentucky-jcps-wayne-lewis-names-list/3223587002/

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/education/2019/02/28/kentucky-teacher-sickout-strike-due-to-pension-system-bill/3012091002/

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/409014-some-in-kentucky-teacher-strike-were-confused-says-governor

https://apnews.com/3622dc9b61204787a5b5f3da24e409e1


Although this did not directly cripple the KY State Republican Party, it is clear that they got a punch in the face from segments of the electorate that they had expected to win, based upon the popularity of the 'Pub brand on items such as Energy Policy, Social Conservative Religious Platforms, and even possibly even Gun Owners (Although that vast majority of KY Voters have a firearm within their house).

Anybody who chooses to believe that many registered KY DEMs within the Coal Country of SE KY have forgotten their Coal Miner Daughter Roots, let alone Coal Counties of Western Kentucky (Muhlenberg County for one example) have forgotten their Trade Union Ancestral Roots, must be smoking a bigger and stronger form of Crystal Meth than any of the "crackheads" within the declining Timber Mill and Factory Towns of Downstate Oregon....

UMWA Pension Plans have been screwed over from the bosses for a long time, which is currently one of the major items for the rump of the UMWA, while meanwhile there are literally generations of Coal Miners within the tight-knit communities of Appalachia that will always remember and never forget, while meanwhile their kids and grandkids migrate to the bright-lights and big cities of places like Cinci, Indie, Chi-Town....

"Insert John Prine Song from the early '70s"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

No Question: Beshear's win was directly a result of the Union Movement activists in a heavily Non-Union State, with the small exception of a handful of Public Sector Workers (Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, County, State, and Municipal Employees) that were getting screwed over by the same type of forced "Austerity Politics" we have seen enforced against our rural communities over the decades from both Democratic and Republican Political Leaders alike.

For whatever reason, KY coal was far less unionized than WV, and there are no union coal mines left in KY.  Bloody Harlan actually swung hard towards Bevin in this election, though the coal county swings were generally mixed and minimal.  What won the election for Beshear was a substantial swing in all the "educated" counties in KY (counties with 20% or more of 25 and over with a college degree) and especially in counties with a higher education institution.  Yeah, Bevin definitely made the teachers mad (cause he's a disrespectful jerk) but did they rekindled the union spirit in coal country? no.

Thanks DINGO Joe... believe we've been buddies for quite a few years on Atlas, and hopefully not confusing you with White Trash, but if not "buddies" at least fellow travelers on a few mutual items of interest....

You are absolutely correct regarding the Unionization of the Coal Sector within KY and WV from an historical perspective.

That was part of the reason for the UMWA Pittston Strike of '89.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittston_Coal_strike

http://umwa.org/take-action/

Now, you are 100% correct that the last struggle of the UMWA was against Non-Union Mines being generated within Coal Country as part of "Double-Breasting" strategy of the Operators...

https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/06/us/union-prepares-for-long-strike-at-coal-mines.html

I was in Ohio during the strike of '93 in College and combined with multiple Union Activists brought 3rd Generation Coal Miners from SE OH on speaking tours throughout the Cities, Union Halls, and Universities to explain the struggle within the Coal Fields of Appalachia...

Now, the point you missed was that when you live in smaller rural communities where the jobs dry up in heavily small town and rural communities, is that you drift towards the larger small towns, and towards the larger cities, which like in most of downstate Oregon aren't too plentiful in search of an alternate reality....

Did somehow a bunch of Yuppies invade the "Urban" and "Suburban" areas of Kentucky from elsewhere seeking job opportunities in the Non-Union Auto Plants of KY?

Were there massive swings in military base towns of KY?

Sorry... don't buy the MSM narrative from MSNBC and CNN, and possibly even 'Pub Media that this was somehow a "massive swing in Upper Income Wealthy White 'Burbs in KY".

Might make sense in other parts of the Country, but not in KY.

Teacher Strike was key.... many sons and daughters, grandkids etc of former miners are teachers, cops, and firefighters within all counties and cities in KY and recognize the War Against the Union when they see one....

Apologies if you thought I was directly talking about election results just from SE-KY....

Lived in OH in the early '90s where just recently Anti-Discrimination Bills had been passed to protect folks of Appalachian decent in places like Cinci, Dayton, and Columbus....

Remember, heading over to a Union Demo in East Liverpool, where I got warned from a local who had at least +20 on me, to keep my eyes open in small towns along the Ohio River, because you could robbed at knife point if you don't take it easy....

Didn't give an eff as a punker and never got robbed at knife point in a small Ohio River City with a pop of 5-10k, but yeah stayed on the main streets of towns with 40% youth unemployment rates....

Yeah, we're buddies and people mistake me for White Trash all the time.  Also appreciate the work you do, and you can put pen to paper and prove me wrong.  Kentucky does tend to have a high rate of natives in the state

https://www.governing.com/gov-data/census/native-homegrown-residents-by-county.html

Though you will note that the biggest swings to Beshear from 2015 are in the least native counties.

The counties with fewest natives also, in general, tend to have the highest education attainment and again there's a strong correlation between swing towards Beshear and educational attainment.  

In metro Louisville

Oldham (40 college 56 native) the swing was +20 for Beshear
Jefferson (32-63) the swing was +16
Bullitt (14-78) the swing was +7.5
Hardin (24-49) the swing was +12.5

Hardin is home to Ft. Knox and thus a military presence and least native.

It's not exactly rigorous analysis and maybe you can come up with something deeper.  Of course, when you win by a very narrow margin you need every vote across whatever spectrum you can get, but Beshear certainly gained more  in the high educated, high income, and less native parts than he did in the opposite.

[Gass3268]

It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

It's also plausible that if Trump had stayed away, Democrats might have been slightly less energized, and it would have only taken a small difference to give Bevin the win.  Neither assertion is provable.

Local Kentucky reporter said last night that he thinks that Trump's visit to Lexington helped boost Democratic voters there.

[Brittain33]

It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

And if my mother were a man, she'd be my father.

Ronna Romney’s tweet is obviously lying propaganda BUT I do think Trump’s popularity and polarizing the electorate did give Bevin a chance he wouldn’t have otherwise had.

[Annatar]

Well overall turnout was up from 2015 to 2019 in KY and the GOP statewide candidates did 4% better on average in 2019 compared to 2015 so if one believes turnout is what determines electoral outcomes, I don't think it is, I think persuasion matters than high turnout helped the GOP since turnout rose form 2015-2019 and the GOP did better on average. 

[ElectionsGuy]

2019 Average statewide performance

Republican: 55.5%
Democratic: 43.0%

5 counties voted Democratic on average - Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott, and Rowan.

2015 Average statewide performance

Republican: 54.0%
Democratic: 45.4%