KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Del Tachi]

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 

I know right?

One_J was wondering if you were going to pop up on Election Night, considering we have a small handful of informed posters from MS including yourself and Del Tachi that are likely to actually pop up on election nights....

What's your current take on the election results you are seeing from the ground thus far?

Granted, I always put a caveat when it comes to lower turnout elections, without seeing where turnout patterns are and historical results by precinct.

2020 I would expect turnout to be much higher within MS than within a GOV election.

Key question for 2020, would be where will turnout improve at higher levels, considering that the MS-GOV election was much closer than many might have expected....

Based on the margins, this is a good result for Democrats.  Based out on the outcome, its a bad result for Democrats in that they lost their only statewide office and didn't make any significant gains in the legislature.

Generally, Hoods seems to have improved over Espy with educated Whites + some of his ancestral NEMS homeland, while falling behind in majority Black areas.  Hood netted 40k votes in Hinds County last night while Espy netted 53k there in the runoff last year.  Definitely seems like there were some Black Democrats left on the table that Hood could have turned-out better.

Unrelated, but Democrats look like they'll gain HD-64.  This is the closest thing that MS has to a "Romney-Clinton" suburban district.  Democrats will also gain SD-22 (majority Black district that has historically elected moderate Republicans).  Dems will probably each have one seat on the Transportation and Public Service commissions as well.

[Cinemark]

2019 Average statewide performance

Republican: 55.5%
Democratic: 43.0%

5 counties voted Democratic on average - Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott, and Rowan.

2015 Average statewide performance

Republican: 54.0%
Democratic: 45.4%

Kentucky is still over 40% rural. The national trends are still prevalent here. Thats why it was so amazing Beshear actually won last night.

[Del Tachi]

2019 Average statewide performance

Republican: 55.5%
Democratic: 43.0%

5 counties voted Democratic on average - Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott, and Rowan.

2015 Average statewide performance

Republican: 54.0%
Democratic: 45.4%

Kentucky is still over 40% rural. The national trends are still prevalent here. Thats why it was so amazing Beshear actually won last night.

I think it shows that downballot Republicans who can get under the radar and talk about something other than Trump can still court suburban moderates, even when those voters are turning out to vote Democrat at the top of the ticket. 

[Annatar]

The down-ballot Republicans tied themselves pretty closely to Trump, just look at Cameron and his performance in the big suburbs was identical to Trump.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1192061931928068096

[Cinemark]

2019 Average statewide performance

Republican: 55.5%
Democratic: 43.0%

5 counties voted Democratic on average - Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott, and Rowan.

2015 Average statewide performance

Republican: 54.0%
Democratic: 45.4%

Kentucky is still over 40% rural. The national trends are still prevalent here. Thats why it was so amazing Beshear actually won last night.

I think it shows that downballot Republicans who can get under the radar and talk about something other than Trump can still court suburban moderates, even when those voters are turning out to vote Democrat at the top of the ticket. 

Yep. The moderates are still swing voters. They're not guaranteed democrat votes just because of Trump. But last night also proves they are willing to vote for a democrat at the top of the ticket, which isn't a great sign for Trump.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I admit some of the VA Republican state senators did better than expected but homegirl in MS-40 must have forgotten she was running.

[Annatar]

MS results all in, GOP came into this cycle with 31/52 seats in the senate, they had gained 2 seats before the election and were at 33/52, they flipped 3 seats in net terms and will have a 36/52 majority in the Senate.

In the house they had 74/122 seats and looks like they will end up with 75/122.

[Oryxslayer]

Reeves did even worse than Hyde-Smith. Wasn't expecting that tbh. Hood did even better than Espy in Hinds County and flipped Madison County

2019 Gov: Reeves 5.7%

2018 Sen Runoff: Hyde-Smith 7.8%

Hood did better with Whites than Espy, but got far worse AA turnout. Some of this was expected since it's off year, some was because Espy juiced up that community. So they both ended up near each others margin in the end, even though their path to this point was a bit different.

[DINGO Joe]

NYCMM was certainly correct about Atlas (himself included) being wrong...

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

Ah right! Too bad for him that the rest of us can read what he actually predicted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3

I'm going to give Beshear the 46% in the latest Mason Dixon poll, the Lolbertarian 1%, and the rest to Bevin

Kentucky

Bevin: 53%
Beshear: 46%
Libertarian: 1%

This was non-final. I spoke to him on Monday night.

Nuke is like NYCMM's Ronna Romney

[Del Tachi]

Reeves did even worse than Hyde-Smith. Wasn't expecting that tbh. Hood did even better than Espy in Hinds County and flipped Madison County

2019 Gov: Reeves 5.7%

2018 Sen Runoff: Hyde-Smith 7.8%

Hood got 47.1% of the two-party vote, so he did about 1 point better than Espy in the runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

Right on cue, MCI maps has his MS map done.

[Tender Branson]

The final canvass of MS counties will add thousands of provisional votes, especially in the Dem. areas - so Reeves final winning margin will probably be closer to 5%.

52-47.

This was also the case in the 2018 Senate runoff, where Espy also closed the gap a bit compared to election night results.

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

We predicted that it would be Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. But also said that there was the possibility that it'd be a <1% win for Beshear.

"It could be [X], but it could also be [Y].  [X] happened, so the prediction was correct."  

Few pundits were anticipating either a blowout for either Bevin or Beshear, so I don't see what you're bragging about here. 

A very narrow result, with the Libertarian share of the vote precise to the decimal points.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We predicted that it would be Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. But also said that there was the possibility that it'd be a <1% win for Beshear.

"It could be [X], but it could also be [Y].  [X] happened, so the prediction was correct."  

Few pundits were anticipating either a blowout for either Bevin or Beshear, so I don't see what you're bragging about here.  

A very narrow result, with the Libertarian share of the vote precise to the decimal points.

But you made, in essence, two opposing predictions at the same time -- one had Beshear losing, the other had him winning.  How is that impressive?

Really not trying to give you a hard time here, Nukes. 

[Tender Branson]

Thinking about it, Beshear should have put this Bevin douche away into the history books by at least a 10-point margin under normal circumstances.

A 0.2 point win is nothing to be really happy about, considering how big of a moron Bevin is.

Yet Austrian media is spinning it as a „fantastic night“ for the Dems and how „weak“ Trump is right now because of KY and the 0.2% loss there.

They have no clue.

[ElectionsGuy]

Beshear will become the reddest state Democratic governor and the one who most outperformed the 2016 presidential result in their state. Here is a list of governors and how they performed against the presidential result in their state. We'll see how Edwards does next Saturday, but almost certainly will be around D+20 rather than D+30.

Justice (D+48.5)
Beshear (D+30)
Edwards (D+30)*
Noem (D+26.5)
Kelly (D+25)
Stitt (D+24.5)
Bullock (D+24)
Wolf (D+18)
Holcomb (D+13)
Greitens (D+13)
Reeves (D+12)
Whitmer (D+10)
Walz (D+10)
Little (D+10)
Ivey (D+8.5)
Dunleavy (D+8)
Carney (D+7.5)
Ricketts (D+7)
Gordon (D+7)
Reynolds (D+6.5)
Grisham (D+6)
McMaster (D+6)
Polis (D+5.5)
Mills (D+5.5)
Lee (D+5)
Northam (D+4)
Cooper (D+4)
DeWine (D+4)
Kemp (D+3.5)
Evers (D+2)
Sisolak (D+2)
DeSantis (D+1)
Cuomo (D+1)
Murphy (Even)
Raimondo (Even)
Pritzker (R+1)
Ige (R+3)
Brown (R+5)
Abbott (R+5)
Inslee (R+7)
Hutchinson (R+7)
Sununu (R+7.5)
Newsom (R+8)
Lamont (R+10.5)
Herbert (R+11)
Ducey (R+13.5)
Burgum (R+22)
Hogan (R+38.5)
Scott (R+39)
Baker (R+61)

*Over Obama

[lfromnj]

Thinking about it, Beshear should have put this Bevin douche away into the history books by at least a 10-point margin under normal circumstances.

A 0.2 point win is nothing to be really happy about, considering how big of a moron Bevin is.

Yet Austrian media is spinning it as a „fantastic night“ for the Dems and how „weak“ Trump is right now because of KY and the 0.2% loss there.

They have no clue.

Why is the Austrian media reporting on a governor election of a small US state.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Thinking about it, Beshear should have put this Bevin douche away into the history books by at least a 10-point margin under normal circumstances.

A 0.2 point win is nothing to be really happy about, considering how big of a moron Bevin is.

Yet Austrian media is spinning it as a „fantastic night“ for the Dems and how „weak“ Trump is right now because of KY and the 0.2% loss there.

They have no clue.

Why is the Austrian media reporting on a governor election of a small US state.

Probably cause Trump idiotically made the election a referendum on himself .

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

If AA turnout remained as high as in 2018, would Hood have won?

[Tender Branson]

Thinking about it, Beshear should have put this Bevin douche away into the history books by at least a 10-point margin under normal circumstances.

A 0.2 point win is nothing to be really happy about, considering how big of a moron Bevin is.

Yet Austrian media is spinning it as a „fantastic night“ for the Dems and how „weak“ Trump is right now because of KY and the 0.2% loss there.

They have no clue.

Why is the Austrian media reporting on a governor election of a small US state.

They always report on these mid-mid-term elections in the US, no matter if Trump or Obama or Bush is President.

https://orf.at/stories/3143319

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000110761002/wie-eine-us-politikerin-mit-dem-stinkefinger-gegen-trump-reuessierte

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000110727499/trump-verlor-stimmungstest-in-republikanischer-hochburg-kentucky

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/trump-verliert-wahl-in-republikanerhochburg-kentucky/400667138

https://www.diepresse.com/5717921/hiobsbotschaften-fur-donald-trump

[DINGO Joe]

Don't forget Austria has an odd curiosity about Kentucky because it's shaped like a mutant Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Don't forget Austria has an odd curiosity about Kentucky because it's shaped like a mutant Austria.

It's shaped like KY or VA, but KY is a better comparison.

Or ID, if you move the map by 90° ...

[Badger]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

Who said that the Kentucky race indicates anything about 2020? Neither I nor the poster I responded to did. Your post is a total non-sequitur.

And I said, and readily standby, is that winning an underdog race for governor of a heavily Republican state like Kentucky plus flipping the Virginia legislature hardly makes last night the best election for Republicans since 2016. That's ludicrous.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelles/status/1192165518494568449

[Tender Branson]

Maybe a net 10 votes or so will change in that re-canvass ...

The dude should accept his defeat and move on.