KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin isn’t getting the numbers he needs out of rural KY, not even close. It’s really not looking good for him.

[MT Treasurer]

Rating Change: Lean Bevin -> Tilt Bevin

Umm sorry ratings are CLOSED once results start coming in.

I know that doenst count towards final predictions but im just saying how the race looks like with these many votes in.

No, with these votes in, the race looks like Likely Beshear, not Tilt Bevin.

[MT Treasurer]

    The confidence everyone has had in Bevin has been baffling. Poor approvals, poor polling numbers. Beshear has this one, I'm saying it now. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

I mean, even I am surprised by how poorly Bevin is doing, and I only had the race as Tossup/Tilt R. The "Safe R because polarization" takes were always ludicrous, of course.

[MT Treasurer]

Nicholas County all in, Beshear only won it by 1%. Bevin lost it by 20% in 2015.

[MT Treasurer]

Bath County is 100% reporting on DDHQ. Beshear wins with 52%.

Conway won it by 3% in 2015, Beshear (2015) by 11%.

[MT Treasurer]

Many did, including myself. It's still early yet, as Jefferson County and Western Kentucky have yet to report. So we'll see. And I'm seeing reports that Bevin is hitting his benchmarks in other rural counties, like Robertson and Menifee, both of which he won fairly easily.

Menifee is only Bevin +7 with 75% of precincts reporting. Bevin won it by 12 in 2015, so this is an underperformance if anything.

[MT Treasurer]

Rural Morgan County is all in. Bevin +5.4. This was Bevin +14 in 2015....

[MT Treasurer]

The problem for Bevin is that he’s underperforming his 2015 numbers in several rural counties. This is going to be very close.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin really needs an overperformance in Western Kentucky (he’s getting it in some counties, not in others, but not a lot in).

[MT Treasurer]

Getting closer and closer as more of the urban vote comes in:

Bevin 50.4% 363,426
Beshear 47.6% 342,790

[MT Treasurer]

Beshear has taken the lead. This is pretty much close to over.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think even those massive losses in urban/surburban KY would have been enough to doom Bevin. If he loses, it will (ironically@IceSpear et al.) be because he’s simply not getting the numbers he needs out of rural KY, not even close.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, that settles KY for Beshear even before any MS votes have come in, who would have predicted that? I also thought that Bevin was slightly favored (Tossup/Tilt R), but I’m almost grateful that the unbelievably smug and insufferable Safe R posters have been proven wrong. This is why you don’t make overconfident predictions, especially when you’ve been consistently wrong before (AL-SEN 2017, WV-GOV 2016, etc.).

[MT Treasurer]

How will Trump spin this one?

This wasn't about Trump, though it does show Trump rallies aren't huge boosts for his choices.

This was obvious even before this election (WV-SEN 2018, MT-SEN 2018, etc.).

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why people don't think McConnell could lose. He's just as unpopular as Bevin is.

McConnell is a far more competent candidate than Bevin (tbf, literally everyone is) and will be up for reelection in a presidential year, that’s why.

[MT Treasurer]

DeSoto, MS is Reeves +20 with 85% in. This was CHS +18 in 2018, and if Hood can’t outperform Espy here, there isn’t much reason to believe that he has much of a shot.

But yeah, still early.

[MT Treasurer]

The only bad thing about this win in KY is now a lot liberal are going to waste money against McConnell.

That'll force him to moderate though.

Nah, it won’t. It will only force him to take his race more seriously, which isn’t going to help Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Hood is pretty much done.

[MT Treasurer]

Whereabouts are IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/etc? Guess trends aren't real anymore, huh?

I mean, mocking the prediction that KY was safe R is of course fair game, but the trends WERE real in this race. Beshear won by about the same margin as he did in 2015 but with far more urban/suburban support and far less rural support.

This is true, but as has been pointed out elsewhere, Beshear would not have won without the counties in Eastern Kentucky (and the ones in the western regions of the state as well) that did support him, and he managed to pull 30% or 40% in many of the counties that he lost. Bevin did significantly underperform Trump just about everywhere in the state.

Yeah, this isn’t really comparable to what we saw in LA. Bevin probably wishes that this was 2016 trends on steroids, but it certainly wasn’t the case in rural KY.

[MT Treasurer]

This shows that the trends are not proceeding in an even manner. At any rate though, Beshear's win gives me greater confidence that Edwards will pull it out in Louisiana. And if he does, that means Democrats will have won 2/3 of the gubernatorial races in red states this year. This somewhat compensates for last year, when they fell short in Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Actually, I wouldn’t be too sure about that. If I were JBE I’d pay more attention to what’s happening in MS than KY.

[MT Treasurer]

Wait they didnt get a plurality in those 3 states in 1999

Republicans only lost MS by 1% and got ~400k more votes than Democrats in LA.